气候变化对中国油菜生产的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-11 13:24

本文关键词：气候变化对中国油菜生产的影响研究　出处：《华中农业大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：气候变化问题被认为是当今人类社会面临的最严峻环境挑战之一。在政府间气候变化专门委员会(Intergo vernmental Panel on Climate Change,IPCC)第五次发布的气候变化评估报告(The Fifth Assessment Report,AR5)中指出,自1950年以来,气候系统监测到的许多变化表明全球气候系统变暖的事实毋庸置疑。大量的研究证实气候变化对人类社会生产、生活和生态系统已经产生影响,气候变化对农业生产的影响也逐渐被证实。大量研究集中在气候变化对粮食作物生产的影响,而缺乏对油料作物的相关系统研究。油菜(Oilseed Rape,OSR)作为世界第三大食用油来源和第二大蛋白质来源,其生产的稳定与否关系到油菜种植农户的利益、食用油供给安全以及全球油料贸易的稳定。在气候变化背景下,油菜生产是否受到影响?气候变化对油菜生产投入、单产和种植面积如何影响?可预测的未来气候变化如何影响油菜单产、种植面积和总产量?对这些问题的深入研究将有助于明确气候变化对油菜生产的影响,从而构建有效的应对措施体系,稳定油菜供给。鉴于此,本文以气候变化对中国冬油菜生产影响为研究对象,首先对论文中涉及到的相关概念进行界定,系统梳理国内外文献,总结研究动态,并对相关理论进行回顾,以确保研究基础。然后,对全球油菜产业发展和中国产业发展状况进行详细阐述,在此基础上,从微观农户层面探讨气候变化对油菜生产化肥和农药投入的影响,明确关键气候因素和关键生长阶段。接下来分析气候变化对油菜单产的影响,并进行区域差异对比和生长阶段对比,确定关键生产区域、关键气候因素和关键生长阶段。然后分析气候变化对油菜种植面积的影响。最后,预测21世纪中期气候变化对中国油菜单产、种植面积和总产量的影响,针对未来气候变化对油菜总产量的影响以及影响的区域差异性,借鉴国际上应对气候变化的经验,对适应和减缓气候变化对油菜生产的影响提出相应的政策建议。本文得出的主要结论有:(1)历史气候变化对大部分地区油菜单产提高不利,对华南沿海、黄淮平原和长江中游地区油菜种植面积增长不利,对云贵高原、四川盆地和长江下游地区油菜种植面积增长有利。(2)未来气候变化对华南沿海、四川盆地和长江下游地区油菜单产不利,对黄淮平原、云贵高原、长江中游地区油菜单产有利。未来气候变化对黄淮平原和长江中游地区油菜种植面积不利,对华南沿海、云贵高原、长江下游和四川盆地地区油菜种植面积有利。(3)未来气候变化将导致中国油菜减产1.83~2.63万吨,大致相当于华南沿海地区2013年油菜总产。(4)不同气候因素比较而言,温度对化肥投入的影响最显著,温度在苗期、蕾薹期和开花期对单产较关键,并且对绝大多数油菜主产区油菜种植面积的影响最大。降水对农药投入的影响最显著,降水在苗期和蕾苔期对单产较关键。日照时数在成熟期对单产较关键。(5)纬度较低地区的油菜单产更容易因气候变暖而减产,受气候变化的负面影响也更大。(6)其他因素方面,劳动力投入对油菜单产影响最大,随着经济进一步发展,劳动力投入对油菜生产的制约性将越来越大。油菜籽临时收储政策有利于油菜种植面积增长,该政策的实施一定程度上提升了农户种植油菜积极性。研究可能的创新之处体现在三个方面:(1)将气候变化对油菜总产量的影响细分为对单产和种植面积的影响。以往相关研究倾向于假定气候变化对作物种植面积无影响,本文将油菜单产和种植面积分别对气候变量和其他经济变量建模,综合气候变化对油菜单产和种植面积的影响,最终得到气候变化对总产量的影响,结果更准确。(2)将气候变化对中国油菜生产的影响细分为对各油菜主产区生产的影响,并进行空间区域性差异分析。不同地区油菜单产和种植面积对于气候变化的敏感程度不同,研究结果表明,一些地区油菜单产和种植面积因气候变化增加,而另一些地区油菜单产和种植面积则因气候变化减少。总体而言,气候变化对不同地区的影响互相有所抵消。(3)结合作物学知识,将油菜生育期划分为4个生长阶段,并结合经济学相关理论和方法,深入分析油菜各生长阶段气候因素对油菜单产的影响。
[Abstract]:The issue of climate change is considered one of the most serious environmental challenges facing human society today. In the Intergovernmental Panel on climate change (Intergo vernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC) released its fifth assessment report on climate change (the The Fifth Assessment Report, AR5) pointed out that since 1950, many changes to the climate system monitoring the fact that the global warming of the climate system no doubt. Many studies have confirmed the production of climate change on human society, life and ecological system has been affected, the effect of climate change on agriculture has gradually been confirmed. Many researches focused on the impact of climate change on crop production, and the lack of research on related systems for oil crops. Rape (Oilseed Rape OSR) as the world's third largest source of edible oil and the second largest source of protein, its production is stable or not related to oil The interests of farmers planting vegetables, edible oil supply security and the global oil trade stability. Under the background of climate change, rapeseed production is affected? Climate change on rapeseed production investment, how to influence the yield and planting area in the foreseeable future? How climate change will affect rapeseed yield, planting area and output? Research on these questions will help determine the impact of climate change on rapeseed production, so as to construct the system of effective measures, stable supply of rapeseed. In view of this, this paper Chinese of climate change on winter rapeseed production influence as the research object, firstly, the relevant concepts of the definition, combing the literature at home and abroad summarize the research trends, and the related theories are reviewed, in order to ensure that the basis of the research. Then, elaborate the development of rape industry and the development of the global China industry, on this base On the basis, from the micro household level to explore the impacts of climate change on rapeseed production inputs of fertilizers and pesticides, clarify the key climate factors and key growth stages. Then the impact of climate change on rapeseed yield, and regional differences and the growth stages of comparison, determine the key production areas, key climate factors and key growth stages and analysis. Climate change effects on the rape planting area. Finally, the prediction of climate change on the mid twenty-first Century Chinese rapeseed yield, the effect of planting area and total output, regional differences in the future effects of climate change on rape output as well as the influence of climate change, learn from international experience, to adapt to and mitigate the impact of climate change on rape the production of the corresponding policy recommendations are proposed. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the history of climate change on the production increase of oil in most parts of the menu Negative, on the coast of Southern China, Huang Huai and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Plain rape planting area of growth disadvantage, the Yunnan Guizhou Plateau, Sichuan basin and the Yangtze River downstream area of rape planting area growth advantage. (2) of future climate change on the Southern China coast, the lower reaches of the Sichuan River Basin and the Yangtze River oil production on the menu adverse, Huang Huai plain, Yunnan Guizhou Plateau, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River area of rapeseed yield advantage. Future climate change on rapeseed planting area of the Huang Huai plain and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River on the Southern China coast, unfavorable, the Yunnan Guizhou Plateau, the lower reaches of the Yangtze River area and Sichuan basin of rape planting area advantage. (3) the future climate change will lead to Chinese rapeseed production 1.83~2.63 million tons, roughly equivalent to the coastal area of Southern China in 2013 the total production of rapeseed. (4) different climate factors comparison, temperature is the most significant impact on fertilizer input, the temperature at the seedling stage, bud stage and flowering stage is the key to yield, and the vast Most rapeseed in the rape cultivated area is the largest. The most significant effect on pesticide precipitation, precipitation in seedling stage and budding stage to yield the key. Sunshine in the mature period of yield is the key. (5) rapeseed yield of low latitude areas are more likely to decrease due to climate warming, negative influence climate change is also greater. (6) other factors, labor input the greatest effect on rapeseed yield, with the further development of economy, the labor input of rapeseed production will be more and more. The policy of temporary storage of rapeseed is conducive to the growth of rape planting area, the implementation of the policy to a certain extent to enhance the farmers planting rape actively. The innovation of research is embodied in three aspects: (1) the segmentation effect of climate change on the total output of the effects on rapeseed yield and planting area. Previous studies tend to assume that Climate change has no effect on crop acreage, the rape yield and planting area of climate variables and other economic variables modeling, the comprehensive effects of climate change on rapeseed yield and planting area, finally get the impact of climate change on the total yield, more accurate results. (2) the segmentation effect of climate change on Rapeseed production Chinese the impact on production in different rapeseed producing areas, and spatial analysis of regional differences. The sensitivity of different parts of rape yield and planting area for climate change, the results of the study show that, in some areas of oil production and planting area increase menu due to climate change, and other areas of rapeseed yield and planting area due to climate change reduced. Overall, climate change has been offset by mutual influence in different region. (3) the cooperation object knowledge, the rape growth period is divided into 4 growth stages, and Combined with the theories and methods of economics, the effects of climatic factors on rape yield in each stage of rape were analyzed.

【学位授予单位】：华中农业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：S162;F326.12

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