金融危机对出口质量变动的影响机理与实证

发布时间：2018-01-11 18:15

  本文关键词：金融危机对出口质量变动的影响机理与实证　出处：《浙江大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： 出口质量 金融危机 口红效应 倒逼提升效应 异质企业

【摘要】：出口产品质量已经成为当前影响中国贸易转型升级和经济持续增长的最核心要素之一,而本文从一个新的切入点即考虑到金融危机冲击的影响系统地研究了危机后中国出口质量的特殊变动路径。我国出口在经历30多年高歌猛进型的持续扩张和繁荣后,随着劳动力成本的上升以及国际形势的转变,原先数量扩张型的外贸增长模式已难以为继。由此,最近相关研究指出我国外贸正在进入质量效益型的发展阶段,并已形成了需求相似理论、华盛顿苹果猜想、南北贸易模型和质量异质性模型等经验研究方法和理论,同时围绕生产率、目的国特征和外部环境等因素展开研究。对于该问题,现有文献则鲜有以金融危机为切入点研究出口质量升级的影响机制。为了研究金融危机对出口质量变动的影响机理,本文首先将金融危机的需求冲击和供给冲击纳入经拓展后的Hallak和Sivadasan(2009)二维异质性模型均衡分析中,从而构建了一个兼顾需求侧及供给侧影响渠道的能够分析金融危机对出口质量变动综合影响效应的理论框架；其次,运用工具变量法与需求残差法基于2000-2011年的近1亿条海关数据测度了中国微观出口产品质量,进而得到危机后出口质量的总体与多细分维度的变动趋势,并利用引力模型直接考察了危机冲击下的出口质量选择效应特征；再次,使用拓展的结构分解以及生存分析实证模型从短期、长期上验证前述理论效应,先基于静态边际视角研究金融危机对出口质量变动的短期净效应,再基于动态周期视角研究其长期净效应。得到研究结论如下：1、揭示了金融危机冲击对出口质量变动存在着需求端和供给端的双重效应：口红效应和倒逼提升效应,在口红效应下出口质量会降低,在倒逼效应下出口质量得到提升。论文第3章将金融危机所带来的负向需求冲击和相对融资条件变化引入均衡分析中,同时从需求和供给两个渠道研究了外部金融冲击对企业出口决策的影响机制。在金融危机下负向需求冲击使得消费者呈现低价产品偏好趋势,加上利润缩减下的低创新投入,最终带来质量的下降；而以融资约束缩紧为特征的供给冲击则将同时通过“优选”和“劣汰”的机制倒逼质量的提升。故危机对出口质量的影响机制是复杂的,本部分的理论分析囊括了上述两者效应,为准确理解金融危机对出口质量变动的影响奠定了理论基础。2、发现金融危机后中国整体出口产品质量轻微下降,其中国有、合资企业以及中高技术行业出口质量受负向效应影响较大,反之民营企业、低技术行业危机后出口质量有上升态势,且在样本末期民企出口质量首次超过国企、危机后民企出口质量选择效应也有所增强。论文第4章基于近1亿条中国海关数据测度了微观层面的出口产品质量,得到了危机后总体、行业、企业以及贸易方式、出口模式和技术复杂度等多细分维度的出口质量变动趋势事实,同时考察了危机后出口质量选择效应的特征。研究表明,危机冲击下不同技术水平的行业、不同所有制企业出口质量变动方向呈现出差异性,同时虽然我国出口仍偏向效率选择效应,但危机后民企的质量选择效应却有所增强。3、从短期看,口红效应引致深化边际(既有企业)外部结构重配是危机后国企出口质量下降的核心因素,而倒逼效应引致广化边际(更替企业)进入驱动增强是危机后民企出口质量上升的核心因素。论文第5章基于静态边际视角,考察了内部升级、外部重构、进入驱动和退出驱动等四个因素危机后对出口质量增长贡献的变动。研究表明,危机的需求冲击使得份额呈现从高质量贸易关系向低质量贸易关系重构的趋势,由于国企不存在金融约束且规模较大,口红效应下的质量降低要大于倒逼效应下的质量提升；而民企则由于低价低质量进入将无法再带来持续利润,由此危机倒逼边际进入企业出口质量提升,同时因其多数规模较小,倒逼效应下的质量提升要大于口红效应所带来的质量降低。4、从长期看,口红效应将进一步引致危机后国企出口质量升级周期缩短,而倒逼效应将引致危机后新进入企业出口质量升级周期增长。论文第6章基于动态周期视角,考察了危机后出口质量升级周期的变迁以及不同成长阶段(引入型驱动、新创型驱动、成长型驱动和成熟型驱动)对出口质量增长贡献度的变化。研究表明,企业进入出口市场后平均约在2.41年-2.56年出口质量达到最大值,并平均再经过1.11-1.24年后退出出口市场,处于质量升级周期的新创型驱动对整体出口质量增长的直接贡献和单位贡献都更大；危机冲击下出口质量升级周期增长了约1.12%,其中民企增长了5.76%、国企下降了9.43%。这实际上是口红效应和倒逼效应对出口质量变动短期作用后的长期累计效应。
[Abstract]:The quality of export products has become one of the core elements of influence Chinese trade transformation and sustained economic growth, and this from a new point that is taking into account the special path changes affecting the quality of export China financial crisis was studied after the crisis. China's exports continued to expand and prosper through 30 years of stride forward singing militant songs the type, with the change of the rising cost of labor and the international situation, the original number of expansion of foreign trade growth mode has been difficult to continue. Thus, recent research pointed out that the development stage of China's foreign trade is entering the quality benefit type, and has formed a similar demand theory, washington apple conjecture, North South trade model and quality heterogeneity model the experience of research methods and theory, at the same time on productivity, research in characteristics and the external environment and other factors. For this problem, now There is little literature to the financial crisis as the starting point of the influence mechanism of export quality upgrading. In order to study the mechanism of the financial crisis on the impact of export quality changes, the financial crisis the impact of demand and supply shocks into the expanded Hallak and Sivadasan (2009) analysis of two-dimensional heterogeneous model equilibrium, thus establishing a both the demand side and the supply side effects of channel to the analysis of the financial crisis on the export quality change effect of comprehensive theoretical framework; secondly, using the instrumental variable method and residual method based on 2000-2011 needs nearly 100 million years of customs data to measure the China micro quality of export products, and then get the crisis trend after the exit of the overall quality and dimensions multiple segments, and used the gravity model to directly investigate the crisis under the impact of the export quality feature selection effect; thirdly, the expansion of the structure Decomposition and survival analysis of the empirical model in the short-term, the long-term effect on the theoretical verification, short-term net effect first static marginal perspective to study financial crisis based on the export of quality change, based on the research of dynamic cycle perspective the long-term net effect. The main conclusions are as follows: 1, reveals the impact of the financial crisis has a dual effect of demand side and supply the end of export quality changes: lipstick effect and forced lifting effect, export quality will be lower in the lipstick effect, the reverse effect of export quality is improved. In the third chapter, the financial crisis brought about by the negative impact of demand and the relative financing conditions change into a balancing analysis, at the same time from two aspects: supply and demand study on the channels of influence mechanism of external financial shocks on export decisions. In the financial crisis to the negative impact of demand makes consumers show preference trend of low-priced products, Low investment and reduced profits under the innovation and ultimately bring down the quality of; and to tighten financing constraints for the characteristics of the supply shock will also through the mechanism of "optimization" and "the fittest" forced to improve quality. The influence mechanism of crisis on export quality is complex, the theoretical analysis of this part includes the above two effects, for accurately understanding the financial crisis laid a theoretical foundation for the influence of.2 on export quality changes, China overall quality of export products found decreased slightly after the financial crisis, the China, joint ventures and high technology industry export quality by the negative effects, and private enterprises, low technology industry exports after the crisis the quality of a rising trend, and in the end of the sample of private enterprises export quality for the first time over the state-owned enterprises, private enterprises export quality crisis after the selection effect is improved. The fourth chapter is based on nearly 100 million Chinese Customs data to measure the micro level of the quality of export products, the overall crisis, industry, enterprises and trade, export mode and technical complexity and other dimensions of the export quality change trend of fact, characteristics were investigated after the crisis of export quality selection effects. The results show that the different technology level industry crisis export enterprises of different ownership, different quality change direction at the same time, although China's exports still tend to choose efficiency effect, but after the crisis of private enterprises quality selection effect is enhanced.3, in the short term, the lipstick effect caused by the deepening of marginal (both enterprises) external structure reconfiguration is the core factor of state-owned enterprises export decline in quality crisis after the forced effect caused by wide and marginal (replacement into enterprise) is the core factor of rising private drive enhanced export quality after the crisis. The fifth chapter is based on the static The marginal state perspective, examines the internal external upgrading, reconstruction, changes of the export growth driven into the quality of contribution and exit drive four factors after the crisis. The study shows that the impact of the crisis demand share presents from the high quality trade relations to the low quality of trade relation reconstruction trend, due to financial constraints do not exist state-owned enterprises and large scale and reduce the quality of the lipstick effect is greater than the quality forced effect promotion; and private enterprises due to low quality will not be able to bring into sustainable profits, this crisis forced into marginal export enterprises to improve the quality, at the same time because most of its smaller scale, forced to improve quality under the effect of quality is greater than the lipstick effect the decrease of.4, in the long term, the lipstick effect will further upgrade the quality of exports of state-owned enterprises after the crisis period is shortened, and the forced effect will lead to the crisis after the new enterprise The cycle of growth and upgrade of export quality. In the sixth chapter, based on the dynamic cycle perspective, examines the crisis after the export quality upgrade cycle changes and different growth stages (the introduction of new type drive, drive, drive and drive the growth of mature) to change the export quality of the contribution of growth. The study shows that the enterprises to enter the export market after an average of about in 2.41 years -2.56 years of export quality reached the maximum, and the average after 1.11-1.24 years out of the export market, in the new type of quality upgrade cycle driven direct contribution and unit growth on overall export quality contribution is bigger; cycle increased by about 1.12% to upgrade the export quality crisis, in which private enterprises grew 5.76%, state-owned enterprises this is actually down 9.43%. lipstick effect and forcing effect on the export quality changes in short-term after long-term cumulative effects.

【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F752.62;F832.59
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本文编号：1410659