中国粮食生产率增长与技术选择研究

发布时间：2018-01-13 05:05

本文关键词：中国粮食生产率增长与技术选择研究　出处：《中国农业科学院》2015年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：目前我国粮食产业的发展受到自然资源匮乏和劳动力资源不足、农业投入水平有限、农业基础建设薄弱等多重压力,研究如何保障我国粮食持续稳定的增产增收,对我国粮食产业乃至对我国农业的发展都具有重要意义。本研究从生产角度研究我国三种主要粮食作物生产现状及生产波动特征,测算粮食全要素生产率及分解与分析劳动和土地生产率的地区差异,分析粮食技术效率的空间分布及技术溢出,对不同技术类型对粮食综合生产能力发展的影响进行了深入探讨,并从微观农户技术选择层面进行了实证分析,最后基于以上研究为今后我国粮食产业发展提供有益的政策建议。基于采用三阶段DEA方法,我国粮食主产区全要素生产率平均改进速度达到1.8%,粮食主产区改进差异明显。研究得出,我国粮食全要素生产率不存在绝对收敛,但存在条件收敛,并且西部地区的收敛速度最快。采用基于回归方程分解方法分解粮食劳动、土地生产率的地区差异,研究表明技术效率是核心影响因素。我国粮食生产技术效率分布存在显著的空间集聚效应。基于空间面板回归模型研究,研究得出,各地区技术积累、资本投入和农业技术人员的地区差异显著影响了生产技术效率的空间溢出,导致粮食生产效率的地区间差异无法依靠粮食产业内部实现稳态。基于E-S模型计算技术对粮食产量变动的影响,并引入调节变量改造传统柯布道格拉斯生产函数,采用多层线性回归模型拟合。研究得出,生物化学型技术投入对粮食增产的贡献达到86%,占主导地位。生物化学型和机械型技术的要素投入对粮食产量起干扰型调节作用,所以加大两类技术投入可以突破粮食增产的水土资源与劳动力约束。根据模型结果预期,“十三·五”期间的年平均粮食产量或达6.3亿吨的水平。基于技术选择理论,采用多元Logit模型研究个人特征、经济特征、生产技术特征、主观规范以及粮食经营特征等对农户粮食生产技术选择行为的影响,研究认为生物化学型技术是目前我国粮食种植农户的选择的重点,但未来机械型技术前景更为广阔。生物化学型技术的发展趋势主要是以生物育种技术为主,而机械型技术的未来发展方向是以农业信息技术为基础的精准农业技术。基于以上研究,提出以下政策建议：稳定粮食播种面积,加快农田水利改造工程；推进农村土地流转确权制度改革,鼓励适度规模化经营；加快剩余劳动力转移,提高补贴水平；加强农业科技自主创新和技术引进、农业技术推广和培训体系建设以及农村粮食合作组织建设；加大对资金扶持力度,缩小地区间差异；建设农业灾害预警及保险赔偿机制,加强国家粮食收储体系管理。
[Abstract]:At present, the development of food industry in China is under the pressure of shortage of natural resources and labor resources, limited agricultural input level, weak agricultural infrastructure and so on. This paper studies how to ensure a sustained and stable increase in grain production and income in China. This study is of great significance to China's grain industry and even to the development of China's agriculture. This study studies the production status and production fluctuation characteristics of three main food crops in China from the perspective of production. To measure the total factor productivity of grain and to analyze the regional differences of labor and land productivity, and to analyze the spatial distribution and technology spillover of grain technology efficiency. The influence of different technology types on the development of grain comprehensive production capacity is discussed in depth, and the empirical analysis is carried out from the level of micro-farmers' technical choice. Finally, based on the above research to provide useful policy recommendations for the future development of China's grain industry. Based on the three-stage DEA method, the average rate of improvement of total factor productivity in the main grain production areas of China reaches 1.8%. The research shows that there is no absolute convergence of total factor productivity of grain in China, but there is conditional convergence. And the speed of convergence in the western region is the fastest. Based on regression equation decomposition method is used to decompose the regional differences of grain labor and land productivity. The research shows that technical efficiency is the core factor. There is a significant spatial agglomeration effect in the distribution of technical efficiency of grain production in China. Based on the research of spatial panel regression model, it is concluded that the technology accumulation in different regions. The regional differences of capital input and agricultural technicians significantly affect the spatial spillover of production technology efficiency. The regional differences of grain production efficiency can not depend on the steady-state of grain industry. Based on the E-S model, the effect of the technology on the grain yield changes can not be achieved. The traditional Cobb Douglas production function was modified by adjusting variables, and the multi-layer linear regression model was used to fit it. The results showed that the contribution of biochemical technology input to grain production increased to 86%. The factor input of biochemical and mechanical technology plays an interference role in grain yield. Therefore, increasing the input of two kinds of technology can break through the constraints of water and soil resources and labor force to increase grain production. The average annual grain output during the period of "13 路5" may reach 630 million tons. Based on the theory of technology selection, this paper studies the characteristics of individual, economy and production technology by using the multivariate Logit model. The influence of subjective norms and grain management characteristics on the behavior of farmers' choice of grain production technology is considered to be the key point of the selection of grain planting farmers in China at present. But the future of mechanical technology is more broad. The development trend of biochemistry technology is mainly biological breeding technology. The future development direction of mechanical technology is precision agriculture technology based on agricultural information technology. Based on the above research, the following policy suggestions are put forward: stabilizing grain sowing area and speeding up irrigation and water conservancy reconstruction project; Promoting the reform of the system of confirming the right of rural land circulation and encouraging moderate scale operation; Speed up the transfer of surplus labor force, improve the level of subsidies; We will strengthen independent innovation in agricultural science and technology and the introduction of technology, the construction of agricultural technology extension and training systems and the construction of rural grain cooperation organizations; Increase financial support to reduce regional differences; We will build a mechanism for early warning and insurance compensation for agricultural disasters and strengthen the management of the national grain collection and storage system.
【学位授予单位】：中国农业科学院
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F326.11

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