外商直接投资在巴基斯坦的经济分析

发布时间：2018-02-02 23:31

  本文关键词： 多变量协整 向量自回归 预测误差方差 国际贸易理论 中国-巴基斯坦经济走廊　出处：《中国农业科学院》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：外商直接投资(FDI)由于全球化和贸易自由化而得到重视。同时,一般来讲,外商投资成为东道国资本形成、贸易刺激、技术进步和人力资源开发的一种动力来源,从而有助于经济增长。但是,实证研究尤其是关于发展中国家(如巴基斯坦)的研究显示了不一致的结果,外商直接投资对经济的影响更依赖于东道国的国内情况。本项研究采用了六个实证模型,即利用经济增长、进口、出口、资本形成、劳动生产率和农业生产率来分析FDI对巴基斯坦经济的第一轮和第二轮的影响。这些研究采用自回归分布滞后模型(ARDL)、向量自回归模型(VAR)、向量误差修正模型(VECM)等计量经济学方法进行估计。研究也涉及到格兰杰因果关系、预测误差方差分解(FEV)和脉冲响应函数(IRF)方法。研究发现,包含在模型中的变量存在长期(协整)关系。FDI与国内生产总值(GDP)之间存在的双向格兰杰因果关系及VECM的结果在很大程度上支持FDI驱动型增长和增长导致FDI的假设。同时,发现经济增长水平在其固有价值方面对于冲击很敏感。研究还发现,FDI和出口的互补意味着FDI存量增加有助于出口,FDI将为巴基斯坦进入国际市场方面提供更多的机会。总的来看,FDI本身就具有基于投资、利润和税收的一系列政府政策功能。因此,通过出口导向、投资环境和经济增长水平可以预判FDI在巴基斯坦未来的发展方向。此外,中国经济走廊(CPEC)有望通过恢复外国投资者的信心来增加FDI在巴基斯坦的流入。然而,FDI对人力资本和农业生产力增长的影响不显著,这意味着FDI在巴基斯坦技能提高、投资密集方向方面缺乏先决条件来获取溢出收益。
[Abstract]:Foreign direct investment (FDI) as a result of globalization and trade liberalization and attention. At the same time, generally speaking, foreign investment has become the domestic capital formation, trade stimulation, a power source of technological progress and human resources development, which contributes to the economic growth. However, empirical studies especially on developing countries (such as Pakistan). Research has shown inconsistent results, the domestic situation is more dependent on the host country of foreign direct investment impact on the economy. This study used six models, namely the use of import, export, economic growth, capital formation, labor productivity and agricultural productivity analysis of FDI on the economy of Pakistan the first round and second round effects. These studies using the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL), vector autoregressive model (VAR), vector error correction model (VECM) and Econometrics research method is estimated. Grainger involved the causal relationship between the forecast error variance decomposition (FEV) and impulse response function (IRF) method. The study found that the variables included in the models of long-term (cointegration) relationship between.FDI and the gross domestic product (GDP) two-way causal relationship between Grainger and VECM between the results largely support the FDI driver growth and growth leads to the assumptions of the FDI. At the same time, found that the level of economic growth in terms of its inherent value for the impact is very sensitive. The study also found that the complementary FDI and exports means that the stock of FDI contribute to the increased export, FDI will enter the international market for Pakistan to provide more opportunities. In general, FDI itself is based on a series of government investment, profit and tax policy function. Therefore, the export-oriented, investment environment and the level of economic growth in Pakistan FDI can predict the future direction. In addition, in China Economic Corridor (CPEC) is expected to recover by the confidence of foreign investors to increase the inflow of FDI in Pakistan. However, FDI has no significant effect on human capital and agricultural productivity growth, which means to improve the skills of FDI in Pakistan, investment intensive direction lack prerequisite to obtain spillover benefits.

【学位授予单位】：中国农业科学院
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F135.3;F831.6
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本文编号：1485769