我国劳动力极化问题研究

发布时间：2018-05-09 09:26

  本文选题：劳动力极化 + 技能偏向性技术进步　； 参考：《安徽大学》2016年博士论文

【摘要】：20世纪下半叶,欧美发达国家的劳动力市场出现了以劳动力技能需求分化为特点的变动趋势,以大学毕业生为代表的高技能劳动力的相对需求和就业比重增加、高技能劳动力与低技能劳动力的相对工资上涨使就业技能结构表现为“升级”特点。90年代以来,劳动力就业呈现出“极化”趋势。与就业升级类似,高技能劳动力的就业比重和收入比重仍在显著上涨。不同的则是除高技能劳动力之外,其他劳动力的就业和工资状况进一步分化。与中等技能劳动力相比,低技能劳动力的就业和收入下降趋缓甚至有所上升。若按技能水平对职业进行排序,不同技能水平职业的就业比重和工资增长呈现非单调、两端上升、中间塌陷的“U”型。已有研究主要从技能偏向性技术进步和“常规性”模型、中间品贸易和离岸外包的角度对就业技能结构的演变展开了大量理论研究与实证检验。在发达国家劳动力极化的背景下,发展中国家的就业技能结构也在发生变化。新常态中加大技术创新力度、经济转型升级向创新驱动转变、资本流动与产业转移框架下积极融入全球产业价值链使得我国的就业技能结构呈现出不同于以往的变化趋势。目前国内研究大多着眼于以高技能劳动力就业和收入比重上升为特点的劳动力就业升级,围绕就业升级的表现、原因和治理措施展开一系列相关研究,而关于劳动力极化的研究相对偏少。本文遵循“发展现状-影响因素-经济效应-优化路径”的逻辑思路,从技术进步、贸易开放、产业结构升级、工业化与城镇化发展以及城乡劳动力流动的发展背景出发,对我国劳动力极化的发展趋势和前因后果展开系统性研究,提出完善劳动力技能供需匹配、提高劳动力技能水平、促进就业与经济增长协调发展的对策建议。首先,对我国1978年以来劳动力就业结构和工资结构的演变历史与发展路径进行考察和梳理,从总体、产业内和区域间等方面多角度刻画我国就业技能结构变迁的特点与规律。研究结果发现,我国的就业结构和工资结构也同样经历了从“升级”到“极化”的变刮趋势。与国外极化不同的是,我国的劳动力极化呈现出“N”型而非“U”型特点。同时,相对于中等技能劳动力,高技能劳动力就业的显著上升和低技能劳动力就业的适度增加使得我国的劳动力极化呈现出“极化升级”的趋势。其次,基于我国经济社会发展现实,从技能偏向性技术进步、贸易开放、产业结构升级和城镇化四个方面对我国劳动力极化的影响因素展开理论机制分析和实证检验。理论研究表明,技术进步的技能偏向性引发技术与技能互补,推动高技能劳动力相对需求和相对工资上涨。资本体现式技术进步背景下的中间品进口、外商直接投资(FDI)及其技术外溢效应提高了对高技能劳动力的相对需求,中间品出口通过出口产品的质量-技能补充机制提高了对高技能劳动力的相对需求,通过发挥比较优势提高了对低技能劳动力的相对需求。产业结构升级和城镇化则分别从不同方向和路径对各个技能水平劳动力就业发挥作用。实证分析中,基于我国2001-2012年的省际面板数据,通过构建动态面板模型考察了技能偏向性技术进步、贸易开放、产业结构升级和城镇化对我国劳动力极化的影响路径、方向和程度,引入交互项分析影响因素间的交互作用对劳动力极化的作用路径,并进一步将样本分为东部、中部和西部考察了极化影响因素的区域性差异。实证研究结果表明,技能偏向性技术进步、中间品进口的技术外溢和城镇化发展增加了对高技能劳动力的相对需求,对外贸易和离岸外包提升了对低技能劳动力的相对需求,FDI和产业结构升级则对劳动力技能需求具有“U”型的非线性影响。通过交互项分析发现,技术进步抑制了FDI和产业结构升级对低技能劳动力就业的带动效应,增强了其对高技能劳动力就业的促进作用。贸易开放弱化了技术进步对高技能劳动力就业的带动作用,抑制了产业结构升级对高技能劳动力的相对需求。城镇化与产业结构升级耦合发展对高技能劳动力产生更多需求。再次,从经济增长和收入不平等两个角度考察了劳动力极化可能引发的经济效应。通过构建固定效应面板模型,对劳动力极化与经济增长和收入不平等之间的关系展开实证研究。从劳动力极化对经济增长的影响效应来看,高技能劳动力就业比重增加、技能偏向性技术进步与技能互补推动经济持续增长。以农民工为主要代表的低技能劳动力支撑了我国低成本工业化和城镇化的快速发展,但其难以给经济增长带来持久动力,最终产生阻碍作用。从劳动力极化对收入不平等的影响效应来看,高技能劳动力相对工资上涨导致收入差距扩大,但内生的技能供给增加会反向抑制收入差距扩大。低技能劳动力相对工资上升会缩小收入差距,但由于缺乏持续的工资上升动力,收入差距将又呈现出扩大趋势。最后,作为多数国家劳动力市场就业技能结构演变的一种普遍趋势,极化与劳动力的就业状况、收入差距乃至宏观经济发展紧密相连。综合理论和实证研究,本文从增加高技能劳动力供给、提升整体劳动力技能水平,促进技术自主创新、缩小不同技能劳动力之间的收入差距,积极参与国际经济分工、促进产业结构升级等角度提出完善技能的供需匹配、促进就业与经济增长良性互动的治理措施,为相关的制度设计和政策制定提供思路。
[Abstract]:In the second half of the twentieth Century, the labor market in the developed countries of Europe and the United States appeared in the change trend characterized by the labor skill demand differentiation. The relative demand and employment proportion of high skilled labor represented by college graduates increased. The higher skilled labor force and low skilled labor force raised the employment skill structure as "rising". Since the age of.90, labor employment has shown a "polarization" trend. Similar to employment upgrading, the proportion of employment and income of high skilled labor is still rising significantly. The difference is in addition to the high skilled labor force, the employment and wages of other labor are divided into one step. Compared with the medium skilled labor, the low skill is low. The employment and income decline of labor force has slowed or even increased. The employment proportion and wage growth of different skill level occupations are not monotonous, both ends rise and the middle collapse "U". The angle of offshore outsourcing has carried out a large number of theoretical and empirical tests on the evolution of employment skills structure. Under the background of the labor polarization in developed countries, the employment skills structure of the developing countries is also changing. The new norm has increased the technological innovation, the transformation of economic transformation and upgrading to the innovation driven, the capital flow and the industrial transfer frame With the active integration of the global industrial value chain under the frame, the employment skills structure of our country is different from that of the past. At present, the domestic research is mostly focused on the labor employment upgrading characterized by high skilled labor employment and the increase in the proportion of income. Research on the polarization of labor force is relatively small. This paper follows the logical thinking of "development status - influence factor - economic effect - optimization path", from the background of technological progress, trade opening, industrial structure upgrading, industrialization and urbanization and the development of urban and rural labor flow, and the trend of the development of China's labor polarization. The systematic study of the potential and the causes and consequences is carried out, and the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to improve the match of the supply and demand of labor force, improve the skill level of the labor force and promote the coordinated development of the employment and economic growth. First, the history and development path of the labor employment structure and wage structure in China since 1978 are examined and combed, from the overall, in the industry. The research results show that the employment structure and wage structure in our country have also experienced the changing trend from "upgrading" to "polarization". Unlike foreign polarization, China's labor polarization is characterized by "N" rather than "U". At the same time, compared with the medium skilled labor force, the significant increase in the employment of high skilled labor force and the moderate increase in the employment of low skilled labor make the polarization of labor polarization in China present a trend of "polarization upgrades". Secondly, based on the reality of economic and social development in our country, the technical progress, trade opening, industrial structure upgrading and city have been developed. The four aspects of the urbanization have carried out the theoretical mechanism analysis and empirical test on the influence factors of the labor polarization in China. The theoretical study shows that the skill bias of the technological progress complements the technology and skills, promotes the relative demand and relative wage of the high skilled labor force. Investment (FDI) and its technological spillover effects increase the relative demand for highly skilled labour. Intermediate exports increase the relative demand for highly skilled labor through the quality of the export products, and improve the relative demand for low skilled labor by playing a comparative advantage. Industrial structure upgrading and urbanization are different. In the empirical analysis, based on the inter provincial panel data of 2001-2012 years in China, through the construction of dynamic panel model, this paper examines the path, direction and course of the influence of skill biased technological progress, trade opening, industrial structure upgrading and urbanization on the polarization of labor force in China. The interaction between the interaction factors and the interaction effect on the polarization of labor force is introduced, and the regional differences between the East, the middle and the West are further examined in the eastern, central and western regions. The results of the empirical study show that the technical spillover and the urbanization of the intermediate goods are increased by technical bias. The relative demand of high skilled labor force, foreign trade and offshore outsourcing enhance the relative demand for low skilled labor, FDI and industrial structure upgrading have a "U" nonlinear effect on the labor skill demand. Through the interactive analysis, the technological progress inhibits the FDI and the upgrading of industrial structure to the low skilled labor force. The dynamic effect has enhanced its role in promoting the employment of high skilled labor. Trade liberalization has weakened the driving effect of technological progress on high skilled labor employment, restraining the relative demand of industrial structure upgrading to high skilled labor. The coupling of urbanization and industrial structure upgrading produces more demand for highly skilled labor. An empirical study on the relationship between labor polarization and economic growth and income inequality is carried out by building a fixed effect panel model from two angles of economic growth and income inequality. The low skilled labor force with migrant workers as the main representative has supported the rapid development of low cost industrialization and urbanization in China, but it is difficult to bring lasting impetus to economic growth and ultimately impede effect. From the polarization of labor force to income inequality The effect of the ringing effect shows that the relative wage rise in high skilled labor leads to the widening income gap, but the increase of endogenous skills supply will reverse the widening of the income gap. A general trend in the evolution of employment skills structure in the labor market of several countries, polarization is closely connected with the employment situation of labor, income gap and the development of macro economy. Comprehensive theory and empirical research, this article is to increase the supply of high skilled labor, improve the level of the overall labor technology and energy, promote technological innovation and reduce the different skills. The income gap between the labor force, the active participation in the international economic division of labor, and the promotion of the upgrading of the industrial structure put forward the matching of the supply and demand of the skills, and the measures to promote the benign interaction between the employment and the economic growth, and provide the ideas for the related system design and policy formulation.

【学位授予单位】：安徽大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F249.2
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本文编号：1865478