城市配送资源整合系统演化分析及评价

发布时间：2018-06-08 03:11

  本文选题：城市配送 + 配送资源　； 参考：《北京交通大学》2016年博士论文

【摘要】：配送系统是物流系统末端功能得以实现的重要依托。随着我国全面深化改革,持续推进产业结构调整和新型城镇化建设,现代化生产模式、商业业态和消费者消费方式等不断变革,配送需求的规模快速扩大,需求形式多样化的趋势明显,城市配送资源整合问题受到广泛关注。在环境污染形势不断严峻、城市交通压力快速加大等背景下,充分整合设施、车辆、设备等配送资源,提高配送资源利用率,促进配送系统与经济、民生、环境、交通等系统的协同发展是转变传统模式,推动产业变革的重要途径。因此,按照系统观点对配送资源整合问题进行深入研究,立足于城市配送资源整合系统的中观视角,明确城市配送资源整合系统的演化机理和过程,并合理地对整合水平进行评价,将有助于推进配送系统与城市经济、环境、交通等系统的协同发展。本文所做的主要研究工作如下：(1)在文献研究的基础上,对配送资源的概念、内涵及各类配送资源的个性和共性特征进行了分析,对配送资源整合的动因做了归纳。按照系统论的一般原理,分析了城市配送资源整合系统的结构,将系统分为配送资源供给和配送资源需求两大子系统,明确了系统具有的复杂性、自组织性和动态性等特征,并将城市配送资源整合系统的目标确定为动态适应配送需求、提升配送资源效率和促进配送系统与其他系统协同发展三个方面。(2)揭示了城市配送资源整合系统自组织演化机理。城市配送资源整合系统是开放系统,具备自组织系统的特征,系统要素之间存在非线性作用关系。本文运用博弈论证明了城市配送资源整合系统自组织涌现的存在,并重点采用熵判据和序参量判据的方法对系统的自组织演化过程进行了研究。首先,利用信息熵和热力学第二定律建立了城市配送资源整合系统的熵变模型,对其熵变条件和熵交换进行了分析,并借助布鲁塞尔器模型(Brusselator Model)判定了系统耗散结构的形成条件及其稳定性。其次,明确了城市配送资源整合系统两大子系统的状态参量,采用DEMATEL方法对17个状态参量进行了序参量识别,确定了配送资源主体数量和配送服务需求总量两大序参量,并以逻辑斯蒂(Logisti c)方程为原型,分别构建了单序参量和双序参量条件下的配送资源整合演化模型,对城市配送资源整合系统的演化规律及特征进行了研究。(3)研究了城市配送资源整合系统的演化过程。为进一步研究城市配送资源整合系统演化过程中要素间的作用关系和外界环境对系统的影响,更全面的解释配送资源整合这一复杂、动态问题,本文在充分考虑了系统外生变量的影响和必要的模型假定条件的基础上,明确了配送资源供给和配送资源需求两大子系统的要素因果关系和主要反馈回路,并进一步细分为73个模型参数,借助VENSIM仿真工具建立了系统流图和结构方程,构建了配送资源整合的系统动力学模型。(4)构建了城市配送资源整合水平评价模型。本文根据系统评价理论,围绕三大系统目标建立了配送资源整合水平的评价指标体系,并基于复合系统协调度模型(CSCD)和广义回归神经网络(GRNN)方法对配送资源整合水平的评价开展研究,利用MATLAB软件,依托北京、上海、广州等5个不同特征的城市基础数据建立了CSCD-GRNN配送资源整合水平评价模型,为全面客观的评估配送资源整合水平提供了合理的方法。(5)对北京市配送资源整合系统进行了实证研究。在理论研究的基础上,以北京市为例验证了的城市配送资源整合系统动力学模型的有效性,针对北京市配送资源整合进行了VENSIM模型仿真和政策模拟,并以北京市2005-2014年期间的城市配送资源整合情况为评价对象,利用CSCD-GRNN评价模型进行了配送资源整合水平评价。结合实证研究,认为北京市应进一步通过推动配送领域技术进步、推动资源共享、鼓励连锁及电商业态发展、强化城市配送公共信息平台建设等措施促进配送资源整合,提升资源效率和改善系统效果。在研究过程中,本文基于自组织理论、系统动力学、神经网络等相关理论基础和适用方法,分别构建了城市配送资源整合系统的耗散结构模型、系统演化模型,系统动力学模型以及配送资源整合水平评价模型。同时以北京市为具体对象,对其城市配送资源整合系统的动力学机制和整合水平进行了实证研究,使得本文在有一定理论创新和实践指导意义。
[Abstract]:The distribution system is an important support for the realization of the terminal function of the logistics system. With the deepening of the reform in China, the continuous reform of the industrial structure adjustment and the new urbanization, the modern production mode, the commercial format and the consumer consumption mode are constantly changing, the pattern of distribution demand is rapidly expanding, and the trend of the diversification of demand forms is obvious. The integration of urban distribution resources has been widely concerned. In the context of the severe environmental pollution situation and the rapid increase of urban traffic pressure, the comprehensive integration of facilities, vehicles, equipment and other distribution resources, improving the utilization of distribution resources, promoting the coordinated development of the distribution system and economy, the livelihood of the people, the environment, traffic and other systems is the transformation of the traditional mode, Therefore, according to the system viewpoint, it is important to study the integration of distribution resources. Based on the middle view of urban distribution resources integration system, the evolution mechanism and process of urban distribution resource integration system and the evaluation of the integration level reasonably will help to promote the distribution system and the city. The main research work of this paper is as follows: (1) on the basis of literature research, the concept, connotation, personality and common characteristics of distribution resources are analyzed, and the motivation of distribution resources integration is summarized. According to the general principle of system theory, the city is analyzed. The structure of distribution resource integration system is divided into two subsystems, which are distribution resources supply and distribution resource demand. The system has the characteristics of complexity, self-organization and dynamics, and the goal of urban distribution resource integration system is determined as dynamic adaptation to distribution requirements, and the efficiency of distribution resources and the promotion of distribution system are promoted. The other systems develop in three aspects. (2) the self-organization evolution mechanism of urban distribution resource integration system is revealed. The urban distribution resource integration system is an open system with the characteristics of the self-organizing system and the nonlinear relationship between the system elements. This paper uses the game theory to prove that the urban distribution resource integration system emerges from the self-organization. The entropy criterion and the order parameter criterion are used to study the self organization evolution process of the system. Firstly, entropy and the second law of thermodynamics are used to establish the entropy change model of the urban distribution resource integration system, and the entropy change condition and entropy exchange are analyzed, and the Brussels model (Brusselator) is used. Model) determines the formation conditions and stability of the dissipative structure of the system. Secondly, the state parameters of the two subsystems of the urban distribution resource integration system are defined. The DEMATEL method is used to identify the order parameters of the 17 state parameters, and the number of distribution resources and the total quantity of distribution service demand are two order parameters, and the logic is used. The Logisti C equation is the prototype. The integration and evolution model of distribution resources under the condition of single order parameter and double order parameter is constructed respectively. The evolution law and characteristics of urban distribution resource integration system are studied. (3) the evolution process of urban distribution resource integration system is studied. On the basis of fully considering the influence of the exogenous variables and the necessary model assumptions, the factors of the two subsystems of distribution resources supply and distribution resource demand are clarified. The causal relationship and the main feedback loop are further divided into 73 model parameters, and the system flow chart and structural equation are established with the aid of VENSIM simulation tools. The system dynamics model of distribution resources integration is constructed. (4) the evaluation model of urban distribution resources integration level is constructed. According to the system evaluation theory, this paper is built around three system objectives. The evaluation index system of distribution resources integration level is established, and based on the complex system coordination degree model (CSCD) and generalized regression neural network (GRNN) method, the evaluation of distribution resources integration level is studied. The CSCD-GRNN distribution resources are established by using MATLAB software, relying on 5 different urban basic data such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and so on. The integration level evaluation model provides a reasonable method for the comprehensive and objective evaluation of distribution resources integration level. (5) an empirical study of Beijing distribution resources integration system is carried out. Based on the theoretical research, the effectiveness of the dynamic model of urban distribution resources integration system is verified by Beijing as an example, and the distribution resources in Beijing are given. VENSIM model simulation and policy simulation are carried out by source integration, and the integration of urban distribution resources in Beijing for 2005-2014 years is considered as the evaluation object. CSCD-GRNN evaluation model is used to evaluate the integration level of distribution resources. Combined with empirical research, it is believed that Beijing city should further promote the development of Technology in the field of distribution and promote resource sharing. Enjoy, encourage chain and e-commerce development, strengthen the construction of urban distribution public information platform and other measures to promote the integration of distribution resources, improve the efficiency of resources and improve the effect of the system. In the course of the study, this paper builds urban distribution resources based on the theory of self-organization, system dynamics, neural network and other related theories and applicable methods. The dissipative structure model, the system evolution model, the system dynamics model and the level evaluation model of distribution resources integration are integrated, and the dynamic mechanism and the integration level of the urban distribution resource integration system are studied by the Beijing city as the specific object, which makes this article have some theoretical and practical guiding significance.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F259.2
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本文编号：1994158