关中地区冬小麦水分产量效应及气候变化条件下产量响应模拟研究

发布时间：2018-03-14 18:17

  本文选题：CSM-CERES-Wheat模型　切入点：冬小麦　出处：《西北农林科技大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：水分亏缺对冬小麦的生长发育有着重要作用,不合理的灌溉制度既会对冬小麦的生长产生不利影响,还会造成水资源的浪费。随着未来气候的变化,水资源状况也会随之发生变化,且会对冬小麦的生长产生一定的影响。因此,本研究以2011—2012和2012—2013年遮雨棚下3个水分处理(充分灌溉,100%ET;轻度水分亏缺,80%ET;重度水分亏缺,60%ET)以及大田试验3个水分处理(同上)和3个种植密度处理(密播340 kg hm-2;适宜播种,240 kg hm-2;稀播,140 kg hm-2)的冬小麦小区试验为基础,分析了不同水分或不同水分及密度条件下冬小麦的需水规律。同时,利用试验数据校验了CSM(Cropping System Model)-CERES-Wheat作物模型,对关中地区冬小麦进行播期优化。选取国际耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)中5种全球气候模式(GCMs,Global Climate Models)在不同典型浓度路径(RCPs)情景下对关中地区2020—2100年气候变化情况进行预测,并用CERES-Wheat模型模拟基于不同气候变化情景模式下冬小麦的响应情况。本研究得出主要结论如下:(1)分析不同水分胁迫处理对冬小麦生长和产量的影响,表明拔节期是冬小麦对水分最敏感的生育时期,其次是开花期,在这一阶段实施水分胁迫会导致冬小麦地上生物量、产量及水分利用效率降低。分蘖期的水分胁迫不会对产量造成严重影响。对于无遮雨设施的大田试验,密播和轻度水分亏缺的灌溉管理措施可以获得最大产量及较高的水分利用效率。(2)应用大田试验数据表明了CSM-CERES-Wheat模型在关中地区的适用性,CERES-Wheat模型可以较好模拟关中地区冬小麦的物候期、成熟期地上生物量、产量,其模拟值与实测值的归一化均方根误差(RMSEn)分别为小于2%、15.4%和14.8%。对叶面积指数的模拟结果一般,而对冬小麦生育期内累积生物量的模拟结果略差,尤其是对叶片累积生物量的模拟误差较大,模拟值与实测值的RMSEn达到70%。应用模型中的季节性分析模块,利用30年的历史气象数据(1984—2013)对不同水分和种植密度情景的冬小麦在7个不同播种日期下的产量进行模拟。结果表明,播种日期从9月7日推移到10月27日,雨养情景下的作物产量平均减少36.7%。通过季节性分析的模拟结果与关中地区的播种模式结合分析,得到该地区的最佳播种日期为10月7日左右,具体播种情况可根据当年的农艺措施及气候条件进行微调整。(3)应用遮雨棚下冬小麦试验数据,利用CSM-CERES-Wheat模型中PriestleyTaylor(PT)和FAO-56 Penman Monteith(PM)两种估算作物蒸发蒸腾量的方法模拟了冬小麦2011—2012和2012—2013两个生长季的累积蒸发蒸腾量、日蒸发蒸腾量、土壤含水率、成熟期地上生物量以及产量,并进行了评价和比较。将基于两种方法模拟的蒸发蒸腾量值与试验区域内大型称重式蒸渗仪的实测结果进行比较,结果表明,基于PT和FAO-56 PM方法的CERES-Wheat模型均可以较准确地模拟冬小麦的蒸发蒸腾量,累积蒸发蒸腾量和日蒸发蒸腾量的误差分别小于5.4%和3.4%。同时,模型还可以模拟土壤水分动态,在0~20 cm土层,CERES-Wheat模型的模拟值与实测值的RMSEn为39.38%,模拟结果较差,但是从20 cm开始,基于两种方法的模拟值与实测值的RMSEn均小于23.1%,且对40-60 cm土层的模拟结果最好。另外,CSM-CERES Wheat模型基于PT方法模拟的蒸发蒸腾量值小于基于FAO-56 PM方法的模拟结果,而基于前者对土壤含水率的模拟值要高于基于后者的模拟结果。CERES-Wheat模型对冬小麦两个生长季开花期和成熟期的模拟精度高,其模拟值和实测值的RMSEn分别为0.85%和0.58%。CERES-Wheat模型基于PT和FAO-56 PM两种方法对冬小麦在2011—2012和2012—2013生长季地上生物量的模拟值与实测值的RMSEn分别为13.57%和22.76%,产量的RMSEn分别为11.80%和15.42%,模拟结果均较好。基于PT方法对地上生物量以及产量的模拟结果要高于FAO-56 PM方法,模型用两种方法模拟的成熟期地上生物量及产量的RMSEn值均在25%以内。(4)关中地区未来气候变暖趋势明显,在不同的GCMs和典型浓度路径情景模式下,最高温度和最低温度均呈上升趋势,渭南地区HADCM3模型和RCP8.5典型浓度路径情景模式下,2100年一月的最低气温增长幅度为16oC。在不同的月份降雨量变化不同,一般情况为2月、6月和12月降雨量呈增多趋势,4月、9月和10月降雨量呈减少趋势。宝鸡和渭南地区太阳辐射变化呈增大趋势,而武功地区太阳辐射降低幅度较大。在仅改变未来气候变化的条件下,宝鸡和武功地区冬小麦成熟期较基准时段缩短3~35天,而渭南地区成熟期较基准时段增长17~52天。宝鸡、武功及渭南地区在不同情景模式下预测到21世纪末期冬小麦主要呈增产趋势。
[Abstract]:Play an important role in the growth of water deficit on winter wheat, unreasonable irrigation system can produce adverse effects on winter wheat growth, but also cause the waste of water resources. With climate change, water resources will be changed, and will have a certain effect on winter wheat growth therefore. In this study, 2011 - 2012 and 2012 2013 3 under the canopy water treatment (full irrigation, mild water deficit, 100%ET; 80%ET; severe water deficit, 60%ET) and the field test of 3 water treatment (ibid) and 3 planting density treatment (340 kg hm-2 dense sowing sowing, 240; kg hm-2; kg hm-2) 140 sowing winter wheat experiment as the foundation, analyzes the water requirement of different water or different moisture and density conditions of winter wheat. At the same time, by using the test data verified CSM (Cropping System Model) -CERES-Wheat crop model And for sowing date of Winter Wheat in Guanzhong area. The optimization selection of international coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5) in the fifth stage of the 5 global climate models (GCMs, Global Climate Models) in different concentration path (RCPs) scenarios of climate change in Guanzhong area from 2020 to 2100 were predicted, and the CERES-Wheat model was used to simulate the response situation of Winter Wheat under different climate change scenarios based on the model. The main results are as follows: (1) analysis of the different effects of water stress on the growth and yield of winter wheat at jointing stage of winter wheat, that is the most sensitive to water bearing period, followed by the flowering period, the implementation of water stress in winter wheat on the ground at this stage the biomass, yield and water use efficiency decreased. At tillering stage, water stress does not cause serious influence on production. For field test without shelter facilities, dense sowing and mild water Deficit irrigation management measures can achieve the maximum yield and high water use efficiency. (2) by field test data show that the applicability of CSM-CERES-Wheat model in Guanzhong area, CERES-Wheat model can better simulate the phenological period of Winter Wheat in Guanzhong area, mature ground biomass, yield, and the measured values of the normalized root mean square error the simulated values (RMSEn) were less than 2%, 15.4% and 14.8%. simulation of leaf area index results in general, and the simulation results of winter wheat biomass accumulation is slightly worse, especially the simulation error of biomass accumulation of leaf is larger, the simulated and measured values of RMSEn reached a seasonal 70%. model the analysis module, using historical meteorological data for 30 years (1984 - 2013) on Yield in 7 different sowing date of Winter Wheat under different water and planting density scenarios is simulated. Results 鏄，

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