中菲建交以来政治关系与贸易相互影响度研究

发布时间：2018-02-25 01:21

本文关键词： 中菲贸易冲突政治关系相互影响　出处：《广西大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：冷战后国际安全形势趋于缓和,但国际冲突仍然时有发生。在经济全球化和东西方关系缓和的背景下,各国命运与国际市场形势休戚与共,经济利益融合加深,国际经济与国际政治之间的相互渗透和相互影响作用日益强化,经贸发展与国际冲突的互动关系日渐引起学者们的关注和深入探究。政治事件是否会对双边贸易产生影响?双边贸易和相互依赖程度的提高是否会引导贸易伙伴国之间形成更为友好的双边关系?双边贸易带来的双边交流增加或贸易不对称是否会导致国家之间政治关系的疏远和政治冲突的增加?国家间政治冲突与经贸关系是否存在相互影响关系这一问题在学术界一直争论不休。中国与菲律宾是山水相连的邻国,两国关系源远流长,长期保持着友好的政治关系氛围。随着中国—东盟自由贸易区启动和两国经济的快速发展,中菲双边贸易额不断上升,经贸关系日益紧密,两国逐渐形成多领域、多渠道的经济合作。然而,近年来,由于阿基诺总统在与中国的外交关系上采取激进立场、中国在南中国海驻守岛礁上的大规模填海造陆工程以及中美两国间不断升温的地缘政治力量斗争,中菲两国围绕南海岛礁主权问题产生日趋激烈的争议,双边关系受到严重损害,一度降温至1975年建交以来的最低点。直到2016年新政府上台,中菲关系才重新开始走向正常化。市场力量推动下双边贸易快速发展和两国政治关系恶化之间存在突出矛盾,因此,中国与菲律宾这一国家对成为观察政治关系与双边贸易相互影响关系的理想对象。由于数据的可得性,研究选取中菲两国1979以来年的政治冲突数据和双边贸易数据展开实证研究,发现中菲两国的政治关系波动对双边贸易额波动具有显著影响;中菲双边贸易额波动同样对两国的政治关系具有影响,但是其影响相对较小。此外,研究中还发现,菲律宾政治冲突行为的影响因素中自身和贸易因素所占比例较小,而对中国发起的政治冲突行为却反应相对较大,结果表明在一定程度上菲律宾不是具有足够经济理性的国家,表现出对中国政治行为较强的敏感性,对中国发起的政治冲突行为具有较强的报复性。最后,本文结合中菲国内社会和双边政治关系发展的新动态,对两国经贸合作发展提出政策建议。
[Abstract]:The international security situation has tended to ease after the cold war, but international conflicts still occur from time to time. In the context of economic globalization and the relaxation of East-West relations, the destinies of all countries are closely related to the international market situation, and the integration of economic interests has deepened. The mutual penetration and mutual influence between international economy and international politics are increasingly strengthened, and the interaction between economic and trade development and international conflict has attracted the attention of scholars and has been deeply explored. Will political events have an impact on bilateral trade? Will increased bilateral trade and interdependence lead to more friendly bilateral relations among trading partners? Will the increase in bilateral trade or trade asymmetries lead to the alienation of political relations and the increase of political conflicts between countries? The question of whether there is a mutual influence between political conflicts and economic and trade relations between countries has been debated in academic circles. China and the Philippines, neighbors linked by mountains and rivers, have a long history of relations between the two countries. With the start of the China-ASEAN Free Trade area and the rapid economic development of the two countries, the bilateral trade volume between China and the Philippines has been rising, economic and trade relations have become increasingly close, and the two countries have gradually formed various fields. Multi-channel economic cooperation. However, in recent years, with President Aquino taking a radical stance on diplomatic relations with China, China's large-scale reclamation project on islands and reefs stationed in the South China Sea and the growing geopolitical struggle between China and the United States have led to increasingly fierce disputes between China and the Philippines over the issue of sovereignty over islands and reefs in the South China Sea. Bilateral relations were seriously damaged, once cooling to the lowest level since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1975. The new government took office in 2016. Sino-Philippine relations have only begun to normalize again. There is a prominent contradiction between the rapid development of bilateral trade and the deterioration of political relations between the two countries under the impetus of market forces. China and the Philippines are ideal targets for observing the interaction between political relations and bilateral trade. Due to the availability of data, The empirical study is carried out in 1979 with the data of political conflict and bilateral trade between China and Philippines in 1979. It is found that the fluctuation of political relationship between China and Philippines has a significant impact on the fluctuation of bilateral trade volume. The fluctuation of bilateral trade volume between China and the Philippines also has an impact on the political relations between the two countries, but its impact is relatively small. In addition, the study also found that the factors affecting the political conflict in the Philippines account for a relatively small proportion of the factors affecting themselves and trade. However, the reaction to the political conflict initiated by China is relatively large. The results show that to some extent the Philippines is not a country with sufficient economic rationality and shows a strong sensitivity to China's political behavior. It has a strong retaliatory effect on the political conflict initiated by China. Finally, combined with the new development of the social and bilateral political relations between China and the Philippines, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions for the development of economic and trade cooperation between the two countries.
【学位授予单位】：广西大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：D822.334.1;F752.7;F753.41

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