“一带一路”沿线国家政治风险对中国对外直接投资的影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-20 04:04

本文选题：一带一路　切入点：政治风险　出处：《西北大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：“一带一路”战略全面实施以来,得到了国际社会的密切关注,沿线国家经济一体化进程不断加快,对“一带一路”沿线国家的投资优化成为中国对外合作健康有序发展的亮点。然而,“一带一路”沿线国家中52个为发展中国家或转型经济体,国内政局稳定性较差,缺乏持续稳定的投资政策,存在较高的政治风险,对中国企业在开展投资合作埋下隐患。因此,对“一带一路”沿线国家政治风险对中国对沿线国家直接投资的影响显得尤为重要。本文在厘清经典投资理论发展脉络以后,选取了合适的政治风险界定和评估方法,梳理了中国企业在“一带一路”沿线国家对外直接投资(OFDI)的发展现状,深度分析了中国企业在沿线国家不同区域的直接投资活动面临的政治风险。基于已有学者的研究基础上,从技术外部性视角,建立两国增长模型,借用两国生产函数和消费者效用函数探讨东道国政府决策、东道国消费者福利及外资企业投资决策三者的动态均衡条件,合理搭建了政治风险对直接投资影响的理论分析框架。在实证分析部分,添加了“东道国市场规模”、“东道国对中国的贸易开放度”作为控制变量,研究了政治风险对中国企业在“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资重要性的影响,并分别检验了政治风险总指数下的12个分指标对中国企业在“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资重要性的影响。实证结果发现,中国在“一带一路”沿线国家的直接投资更偏向政治风险性较高的国家。组成政治风险总指数的12个分指标中,“社会经济条件”、“与投资相关的条件”、“法律法规和秩序”、“种族关系紧张程度”、“行政能力”这5个风险指标对中国在“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资重要性有着显著影响。如果扩展到10%的显著性水平,那么指标“腐败”、“宗教的政治影响力”两者对中国在“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资重要性的影响也很显著。结合理论和实证研究发现,本文对我国企业在“一带一路”沿线直接投资提出了政策性建议。
[Abstract]:Since the full implementation of the "Belt and Road" strategy, the international community has paid close attention to it, and the economic integration process of the countries along the route has been continuously accelerated. The optimization of investment in countries along "Belt and Road" has become a bright spot for the healthy and orderly development of China's foreign cooperation. However, 52 of the countries along the "Belt and Road" route are developing countries or economies in transition, and domestic political stability is poor. Lack of sustained and stable investment policies, high political risks, and hidden dangers for Chinese enterprises in carrying out investment cooperation. The influence of political risks on China's direct investment in countries along Belt and Road is particularly important. After clarifying the development of classical investment theory, this paper selects appropriate methods to define and evaluate political risks. This paper combs the current situation of the development of Chinese enterprises' foreign direct investment (OFDI) in the countries along "Belt and Road", and analyzes in depth the political risks that Chinese enterprises face in their direct investment activities in different regions of the countries along the route. From the perspective of technology externality, the growth model of two countries is established, and the dynamic equilibrium conditions of host government decision, consumer welfare and investment decision of foreign enterprises are discussed by using the production function and consumer utility function of the two countries. In the part of empirical analysis, we add "host country market size" and "host country's trade openness to China" as control variable. This paper studies the influence of political risk on the importance of Chinese enterprises' direct investment in the countries along "Belt and Road". The influence of 12 sub-indexes under the total political risk index on the importance of Chinese enterprises' direct investment in the countries along "Belt and Road" is tested. China's direct investment in countries along the route of "Belt and Road" is more biased towards countries with higher political risks. Of the 12 sub-indicators that make up the overall political risk index, "socio-economic conditions", "investment-related conditions", "laws and regulations", and. "order", "the degree of racial tension" and "administrative competence" have a significant impact on the importance of China's direct investment in countries along "Belt and Road." if extended to a significant level of 10%, Well, the indicators "corruption" and "the political influence of religion" also have a significant impact on the importance of China's direct investment in countries along "Belt and Road". This paper puts forward policy suggestions on direct investment of Chinese enterprises along Belt and Road.
【学位授予单位】：西北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：D0;F125

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