后京都时代国际气候谈判中的伞形国家集团立场分析

发布时间：2018-04-17 12:41

本文选题：伞形国家集团 + 国际气候谈判　；参考：《北京外国语大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：《京都议定书》第一期减排目标于2012年到期,后京都时代的国际气候谈判形势越发严峻。伞形国家集团作为国际气候谈判中的重要国际集团,同时集团中的成员多数为温室气体排放的大国,其立场值得研究。本文以双层博弈理论为理论基础,结合基于利益与环境和基于政治与环境的理论框架,对双层博弈论进行延伸,对伞形国家集团在后京都时代的国际气候谈判中的立场及其背后的原因进行分析。论文主要分为以下几个部分:首先是对伞形国家集团的立场梳理。本文将从伞形国家集团成立过程入手,对这一集团在气候协议谈判、减排问题和气候援助问题上的行为进行分析,从而得出伞形国家集团的谈判立场。伞形国家集团是在《京都议定书》谈判过程中形成的松散国家联盟,主要包括美国、日本、俄罗斯、澳大利亚、加拿大、新西兰、挪威、乌克兰和哈萨克斯坦等国。其次是原因分析的框架构建。本文是以双层博弈理论为基础的,本文在对这一理论进行梳理之后,对其他分析框架,如基于经济与环境进行的理论框架、基于政治与环境进行的理论框架,也进行了简单的分析,而后得出本文的原因分析框架——"国内—集团—国际"三层面分析框架。本文将影响伞形国家集团所持立场的因素分为以上三个层面,做更加细致的分析。并强调以上三个层面不是完全割裂或者孤立的,而是互相联系和影响的。最后是按照以上框架进行原因分析。在国内层面,本文认为主要是一国气候政策、领导人偏好、经济利益与对资源的利用和依赖还有国内利益团体影响了伞形国家集团的立场;在集团层面,成员国们主要因为一致的利益,如经济利益、政治利益等聚合到一起,但是各自又有自己的利益诉求,形成了 "共同但有区别"的立场;在国际层面,其他国家集团的立场、对正面国际形象的追求和对话语权的争夺影响了伞形国家集团在国际气候谈判中的立场。总的来说,本文认为,面对愈加严峻的气候问题,在国际气候谈判中,伞形国家集团在"国内—集团—国际"三重作用下,形成了顽固消极的、较为一致且略有分歧的立场。这不仅对国际气候谈判中其他行为体造成了影响,也影响了国际气候谈判的进程和气候问题的解决。在后京都时代,各国和各个国家集团都开始越来越重视气候变化问题。伞形国家集团作为国际气候谈判中重要的成员,应该承担起与实力和地位相符的责任,真正关注气候变化问题,真正发挥积极作用,为人类的可持续发展做出必要的努力。
[Abstract]:The first phase of the Kyoto Protocol is due to expire in 2012, and the post-Kyoto era of international climate negotiations is becoming more and more serious.The umbrella group of countries is an important international group in international climate negotiations, and most of the members of the group are major emitters of greenhouse gases, whose position is worth studying.Based on the theory of bilevel game theory and the theoretical framework of interest and environment and politics and environment, this paper extends the theory of bilevel game.This paper analyzes the position of Umbrella Group in post-Kyoto international climate negotiations and the reasons behind it.The paper is divided into the following parts: firstly, combing the position of umbrella group of countries.Starting with the founding process of Umbrella Group of countries, this paper analyzes the behavior of Umbrella Group in the negotiation of climate agreement, the issue of emission reduction and the issue of climate aid, and then obtains the negotiating position of Umbrella Group of countries.The Umbrella Group of Nations is a loose coalition of nations formed during the Kyoto Protocol negotiations, including the United States, Japan, Russia, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.The second is the frame construction of cause analysis.This paper is based on the theory of bilevel game. After combing this theory, this paper analyzes other analytical frameworks, such as the theoretical framework based on economics and environment, the theoretical framework based on politics and environment.It also makes a simple analysis, and then comes to the reason analysis frame of this paper-"domestic-group-international" three-level analysis framework.This paper divides the factors that influence the position of Umbrella Group into three levels and makes a more detailed analysis.It also emphasizes that the above three levels are not completely separated or isolated, but are related and influenced by each other.Finally, according to the above framework for cause analysis.At the domestic level, this paper argues that it is mainly a country's climate policy, leadership preferences, economic interests and resource utilization and dependence, as well as domestic interest groups that influence the position of the umbrella group of countries; at the group level,Member States have come together mainly because of their common interests, such as economic interests and political interests, but each has their own interests, forming a "common but differentiated" position; at the international level, the positions of other groups of countries areThe pursuit of positive international image and the scramble for voice influence the position of umbrella group in international climate negotiations.In general, in the face of the increasingly severe climate problem, the umbrella group of countries in the international climate negotiations has formed a stubborn, passive, more consistent and slightly divergent position under the triple action of "domestic, group-international".This not only affects other actors in international climate negotiations, but also affects the process of international climate negotiations and the solution of climate problems.In the post-Kyoto era, countries and groups of countries began to pay more and more attention to climate change.As an important member of the international climate negotiations, the umbrella group of countries should shoulder the responsibility in keeping with its strength and position, pay real attention to the issue of climate change, play a positive role, and make the necessary efforts for the sustainable development of mankind.
【学位授予单位】：北京外国语大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：D996.9

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