缅甸军人政权转型原因研究（1988-2015年）

发布时间：2017-12-28 12:16

  本文关键词：缅甸军人政权转型原因研究（1988-2015年）　出处：《清华大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： 缅甸军人政权 政治转型 利益目标 保障条件 根本原因

【摘要】：虽然目前学界对缅甸是否彻底转型成为民主政体尚存争议,但缅甸已完成了从“纯军人政权”向“军人为主—文官为辅政权”转型的开启,继而到“文官为主—军人为辅政权”转型的深化,却是一个不争的事实。本文研究的问题是:缅甸军人政权为什么愿意放松对权力的控制而推动政权转型?军人政权推动自身转型的条件是什么?关于缅甸军人政权转型的解释主要有四种:“内外压力说”、“国际形势说”、“精英决定说”和“军人利益说”。本文在芬纳(Finer)、亨廷顿(Huntington)、阿西蒙哥鲁(Acemoglu)和罗宾逊(Robinson)等学者提出的关于军人政权转型原因观点的启发下,借鉴诺斯(D.C.North)等人提出的迈向“开放介入社会”的“三个门槛条件”,发展“精英决定说”和“军人利益说”的观点,提出利益目标的改变和保障条件的完备共同促使缅甸军方放松对权力的控制,从而开启和深化政治转型。具体来看,缅甸军方追求的目标从追求对政权的完全控制转变到追求关键控制,关键控制相对于完全控制或不控制能够使得军方获得最大的净收益,特别是制度保障、组织保障和军事保障这三项保障条件的具备极大降低了军方追求关键控制目标的风险。如果利益目标不变,那么军人政权就没有转型的动力;如果保障条件不完备,那么政权转型的风险就高,这个转型风险成本的不可控性导致军人政权不敢冒巨大的风险从而拒绝转型。因此,缅甸军人政权选择放松对权力的控制是理性选择的结果。本文采用案例比较的研究方法,选取了一反、两正一共三个案例进行分析。这三个案例是:苏貌军政权(1988—1992年)拒绝转型、丹瑞军政权(1992—2011年)开启转型和吴登盛“军人为主—文官为辅”政权(2011—2015年)深化转型,并以1990、2010和2015年三次大选为关键时间点。通过对这三个案例的比较研究发现:缅甸军方放松对权力控制之时并不是缅甸面临外部压力最大的时候,也不是在其经济增长最缓慢和社会压力最大的时候;相反,军方拒绝放松对权力控制之时才是内外压力最大之时。这个结论排除了“内外压力说”这个主要竞争性解释,从而论证了本文的研究假设。本文建构了一个解释缅甸整个军人政权转型时期(1988—2015年)的较为完整和系统的理论框架。这一框架有助于理解缅甸军政权转型的本质,也帮助理解缅甸转型后的政治行为的逻辑。缅甸这个阶段的转型之后,昂山素季和吴廷觉领导的民盟执政将对中缅关系产生深远影响。
[Abstract]:Although the academic circles on whether Burma completely transformed into a democracy is controversial, but Burma has completed the "pure military regime" to "military - civilian for the colonial power" transformation "to open, then the civilian - military power for the colonial transformation deepening, it is an indisputable fact. The question is: why Burma military regime is willing to relax the control on power and promote the transformation of the military regime to promote regime? What is their transition conditions? There are mainly four Burma military regime transition explained: "external pressure", "the international situation", "elite decision" and "military interests say". In this paper, Fenner (Finer), Huntington (Huntington), Asif Montgomery and Robinson Lu (Acemoglu) (Robinson) and other scholars on the causes of transformation of the military regime inspired ideas, from the North (D.C.North) proposed to "open access society" and "three threshold conditions", "the development of elite decision" and "military interests" point of view, proposed to change the interests and guarantee conditions common to complete the Burma military loosened its grip on power, thereby opening and deepening political restructuring. Specifically, Burma's military goal from the pursuit of full control of regime change to the pursuit of key control, key control to completely control or control can make the military to get maximum net income, especially with the security of the three security conditions of system security, organizational security and military greatly reduces the risk of military pursuit of key control objectives the. If the interest goal remains unchanged, then the military regime will not have the power of transformation. If the guarantee conditions are incomplete, the risk of regime transformation will be high. The uncontrollable risk cost of the transformation will lead the military regime to dare to take huge risks and refuse to transform. Therefore, the choice of the Burma military regime to relax the control of power is the result of rational choice. In this paper, a case comparison method is used to analyze three cases of one counter and two cases. The three cases are: the Soviet military regime (1988 to 1992) refused to transform, the Shwe army regime (1992 to 2011) opened up the transformation and Wu Dengsheng's "serviceman and civil official as a supplement" regime (2011 to 2015) deepened the transformation, and took 1990, 2010 and 2015 three elections as the key point. Through a comparative study of the three cases found: Burma's military power to relax control when not in Burma when facing the biggest external pressure, nor the largest in its economic growth and the slow social pressure; instead, the military refused to relax the power control is maximum when the pressure inside and outside. This conclusion excludes the main competitive explanation of the "internal and external pressure theory", which demonstrates the hypothesis of this study. This paper constructs a more complete and systematic theoretical framework to explain the transition period of the whole military regime in Burma (1988 - 2015). This framework will help to understand the essence of the transformation of the Burma military regime and help to understand the logic of the political behavior after the transformation of Burma. After the transformation of this stage in Burma, the ruling of Aung San Suu Kyi and Wu Tingjue led by the NLD will have a profound impact on China Myanmar relations.
【学位授予单位】：清华大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：D733.7
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本文编号：1345956