人力资本与省际经济收敛性研究

发布时间：2018-01-11 10:30

本文关键词：人力资本与省际经济收敛性研究　出处：《湖南大学》2013年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：中国经济经历了长达三十余年的快速增长，GDP以年均9%以上的速度攀升。然而与此同时，地区经济失衡也在不断加剧。新古典经济增长理论所预期的落后地区向发达地区不断靠近的经济趋同并未在中国出现。与之相反，各省经济发展甚至呈现发散之势。近期研究一致认为，人力资本对经济发展起着重要的作用，是推动经济长期增长的重要源泉，而且能够有效的减少贫困和控制地区发展失衡。但是对于人力资本在地区经济趋同过程中的作用机制，以往研究并没有进行深入探讨。有鉴于此，本文在前人研究成果的基础上，采用多种计量分析方法，从理论和实证两个角度系统全面的考察了人力资本与我国的省际经济收敛问题，并据此提出缩减地区经济差异，推动经济均衡发展的政策建议。本文采用1990-2009期间省级面板数据研究我国的区域经济差异问题，并重点探讨人力资本与区域经济增长及趋同的关系。数据显示，我国省份和地区之间无论在人均GDP还是人力资本方面都存在显著差距，表现为沿海地区遥遥领先于中西部地区，发达省份远超落后省份。但是各省的经济增长率差异正在逐步缩小，意味着我国地区经济存在收敛的潜力。如何将潜力转化为现实是本文旨在解决的问题。本文首先采用经典的经济收敛参数模型，在资本边际报酬递减的假设下研究我国省际经济的收敛性，并探讨人力资本与地区经济增长和收敛的关系。在此基础上，本文逐步放松传统模型的前提假设，通过构建多种模型检验前文结论的稳健性。首先，本文的分组回归结果发现了我国省际经济收敛的非线性特征。针对人力资本对经济收敛的非线性作用途径，本文分别采用简单的门槛效应模型和Hansen人力资本门槛效应模型展开研究，判别门槛数量，估算人力资本门槛值，并考察门槛前后人力资本的差异影响。考虑到参数模型可能存在的设定问题，本文彻底放松了模型函数形式的固定假设，从数据出发，采用先进的非参数方法研究我国的省际经济收敛现状。在此基础上，本文进一步构建了半参数模型以规避多维非参数回归中存在的维度危机问题，并重点考察人力资本与经济增长的非线性关系。本文采用了多种人力资本度量指标，除常见的教育类指标外，还通过将微观调查数据和省级宏观经济数据相结合的方法，改进了国际上通用的Jorgenson-Fraumeni终生收入法，形成了涵盖教育、健康、迁移等因素的更为全面的省级人力资本存量估算方法。与此同时，本文运用了固定效应和工具变量等模型估计方法，回归结果显示出相当的稳健性。根据模型结果，我们发现：第一，我国省际经济表现为条件收敛而非绝对收敛，同时沿海地区、中部地区、中西部地区存在俱乐部收敛，而西部地区自身不存在俱乐部收敛。储蓄率、人口增长率和人力资本等因素共同决定省级经济的走向。其中，省级储蓄率和人口增长的相对变化正朝着有利于地区经济趋同的方向发展，，而人力资本则是造成目前地区经济差异不断扩大的重要原因。落后地区较低的初期收入所产生的后发优势几乎可以完全被人力资本的相对落后所抵消；第二，人力资本对经济增长的影响具有非线性特征，是决定我国地区经济能否收敛的主要因素。人力资本对中西部地区经济发展的推动程度均大于沿海地区，并且就全国经济而言，这一正向推动作用在1990-1999年间更为明显。半参数固定效应模型显示，平均受教育年限始终正向推动经济增长，但在不同阶段的边际影响不同。与此同时，人均劳动力人力资本对经济增长的影响呈现出先促进后不变而后再次促进的类阶梯型变动。整体而言，人力资本对地区经济趋同的影响表现为双刃剑，即当前地区经济差异扩大的重要原因是人力资本，而要实现地区经济趋同也需要依靠人力资本。综合理论分析和实证研究结果，本文提出以下缩小地区经济差异的政策建议：（1）转变经济发展观念，坚持以人力资本为导向的发展战略；（2）从比较优势出发，鼓励和帮助中西部地区加大人力资本投资力度；（3）构建完善的人力资本制度体系，提高人力资本培养质量和利用效率。
[Abstract]:China economy has experienced rapid growth for more than thirty years, more than 9% of the average annual rate of GDP rise. But at the same time, regional economic imbalances are growing. The economic convergence in backward areas expected the neoclassical economic growth theory gets closer to the developed region is not in Chinese. On the contrary, the economic development and even divergence potential. Recent studies agree that human capital plays an important role in economic development, is an important source to promote long-term economic growth, but also can effectively reduce the imbalance of regional development and poverty control. But for the mechanism of human capital in the process of regional economic convergence in the previous research, and is not in depth. In view of this. In this paper, on the basis of previous research results, using a variety of methods of quantitative analysis, from two aspects of theory and empirical system comprehensive study of the people Force capital and China's inter provincial economic convergence problem, and accordingly put forward policy proposals to reduce regional economic differences and promote the balanced development of the economy.
In this paper, the problem of regional economic differences on China's provincial panel data during 1990-2009, and discusses the relationship between human capital and regional economic growth and convergence. The data show that between China's provinces and regions in terms of per capita GDP and human capital have a significant gap between coastal areas is way ahead in the Midwest, the developed provinces far super backward province. But the economic growth rate difference is gradually narrowing, means that China's regional economic convergence potential. How will the potential into reality is the purpose of this paper is to solve the problem.
Firstly, the parameters of the classical model of economic convergence, convergence of regional economic in our country under the assumption of diminishing marginal returns of capital, and to explore the relationship between economic growth and human capital and regional convergence. On this basis, the gradual relaxation of the traditional model of the premise hypothesis, by constructing multiple model to test the above conclusion is robust. First of all, this paper found the grouping regression nonlinear characteristics of provincial economic convergence in China. According to the way the nonlinear effects of human capital on economic convergence, this paper uses Hansen model and the threshold effect of human capital threshold effect of the simple model of discriminant threshold number, estimating human capital threshold, and the effects of threshold before and after the difference of human capital the effect of considering possible parameter setting problems, this paper thoroughly relaxed the assumption of constant model form, From the data of the provincial economic convergence research status in China using non parametric advanced methods. On this basis, the paper builds the semi parametric model to circumvent the problems of multidimensional non parametric regression in the dimension of the crisis, and focuses on the nonlinear relationship between human capital and economic growth.
This paper uses a variety of human capital metrics, in addition to the common education index, through the method combined with micro survey data and provincial macroeconomic data, improve the general international Jorgenson-Fraumeni lifetime income method, forming a covering education, health, migration and other factors more comprehensive estimation of provincial human capital stock. At the same time, this paper uses the fixed effect estimation method and instrumental variable regression model. The results show considerable robustness.
According to the results of the model, we found that: first, the provincial economy in China shows a conditional convergence rather than absolute convergence, and the coastal region, central region, club convergence exists in the central and western regions, while the western region does not have the club convergence. The savings rate, the rate of population growth and human capital and other factors to the provincial economy. Among them, the relative change of provincial saving rate and population growth is conducive to regional economic convergence in the direction of development, and human capital is an important cause of the current regional economic disparity expands unceasingly. The backward areas of low initial income generated by the advantage of almost entirely by the human capital is relatively backward offset by second; the human capital has the characteristics of nonlinear, impact on economic growth, is a major factor in determining China's regional economic convergence. The human capital of the western area To promote the economic development degree is greater than the coastal areas, and the national economy, the positive role in the period of 1990-1999 is more obvious. According to the semi parametric fixed effects model, the average years of schooling is always positive to promote economic growth, but the marginal effect is different at different stages. At the same time, the per capita labor force of human capital on economic growth show the ladder type and then promote the constant changes to promote again. Overall, the influence of human capital on regional economic convergence is a double-edged sword, that is the expansion of regional economic disparities is an important reason of human capital, and to achieve regional economic convergence is also need to rely on human capital.
According to the results of theoretical analysis and empirical research, put forward the following policy recommendations for reducing regional economic disparities in this paper: (1) the transformation of economic development ideas, adhere to the development strategy guided by human capital; (2) from the perspective of comparative advantage, encourage and help increase the investment of human capital in central and western regions; (3) to construct the system of human capital improve the system, improve human capital quality and efficiency.

【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F249.27

【参考文献】