基于随机模型的外界冲击及维修策略影响下的系统可靠性评估
发布时间：2023-02-18 10:36
时至今日,系统可靠性的建模与评估仍然是统计学、工业工程以及许多其他应用型学科的热点研究方向。当对一个系统的可靠性建立统计模型时,需要考虑的因素包含内在因素(例如系统的自然损耗,出厂质量问题等)以及外在因素(例如来自外界的冲击,维修策略等)。本文的主旨为围绕三种常见外在因素,建立统计模型并进行系统可靠性评估。简介如下:外界冲击:随机发生的来自外部世界的冲击,研究目的为对冲击造成的损坏程度以及发生的频率进行建模,并据此对系统寿命作出预测。系统备份:在系统中加装备份部件,当其它工作状态下的系统部件损坏时,可以使用备份部件替换之。根据运作原理不同还可以分为冷、热与温备份。维修策略:在系统部件损坏时进行的维护工作,这些维护工作可以帮系统部件恢复到工作状态。维修策略往往并非完美,只能一定程度上恢复系统效能,而恢复的程度可以用随机变量来进行建模。本文分为三个部分,分别对应于这三个课题。第一个部分中,我们研究了若干种常见的冲击模型。在不同的模型中,冲击造成系统损坏的机理不同。在累积冲击模型中,系统会在冲击造成的损伤程度累积达到一个临界值时损坏。而在连续冲击模型中,系统会在连续出现若干次量级超过一个特定...
【文章页数】：136 页
【学位级别】：博士
【文章目录】：
摘要
abstract
Chapter 1 Introduction
1.1 Background Introduction
1.1.1 Issues on Shock Models
1.1.2 Issues on Phase-type Distributions
1.1.3 Issues on Standby Redundancy
1.1.4 Issues on Maintenance Models
1.2 Research Objectives
1.3 Structure of this Thesis
Chapter 2 Cumulative Shock Model with Multiple Shock Sources
2.1 Model Description
2.2 Analytical Properties
2.2.1 Cumulative size of consecutive shocks
2.2.2 Lifetime of the system
2.3 Specific Results
2.3.1 Probability mass function of N
2.3.2 Reliability characteristics of the system
2.4 Numerical Example and Remarks
Chapter 3 Mixed Shock Model with Two Types of Shocks
3.1 Model Description
3.2 Distribution of W1 and W2
3.3 Numerical Example and Remarks
Chapter 4 Generalized Run Shock Model with Two Thresholds
4.1 Model Description
4.2 Analytical Properties
4.2.1 Total number of shocks until system failure
4.2.2 Reliability characteristics of the system
4.3 A Markovian Approach for Reliability Assessment
4.4 Numerical Example and Remarks
Chapter 5 Allocation of Standbys in a K-out-of-N System
5.1 Model Description
5.2 Analytical Properties
5.3 Optimal Standby Allocation
5.4 Generalized Case
Chapter 6 A Stochastic EM Algorithm for Maintenance Modeling
6.1 Model Description
6.2 Stochastic EM Algorithm
6.3 Sampling Algorithms
6.3.1 Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm in Practice
6.3.2 Block Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm in Practice
6.3.3 Approximate Bayesian Computation in Practice
6.4 Comparison Methods
Chapter 7 Summary and Future Research Topics
7.1 Summary
7.2 Future Research Topics
中文详细摘要
参考文献
致谢
在读期间发表的学术论文与取得的其他研究成果
本文编号：3744794
【文章页数】：136 页
【学位级别】：博士
【文章目录】：
摘要
abstract
Chapter 1 Introduction
1.1 Background Introduction
1.1.1 Issues on Shock Models
1.1.2 Issues on Phase-type Distributions
1.1.3 Issues on Standby Redundancy
1.1.4 Issues on Maintenance Models
1.2 Research Objectives
1.3 Structure of this Thesis
Chapter 2 Cumulative Shock Model with Multiple Shock Sources
2.1 Model Description
2.2 Analytical Properties
2.2.1 Cumulative size of consecutive shocks
2.2.2 Lifetime of the system
2.3 Specific Results
2.3.1 Probability mass function of N
2.3.2 Reliability characteristics of the system
2.4 Numerical Example and Remarks
Chapter 3 Mixed Shock Model with Two Types of Shocks
3.1 Model Description
3.2 Distribution of W1 and W2
Chapter 4 Generalized Run Shock Model with Two Thresholds
4.1 Model Description
4.2 Analytical Properties
4.2.1 Total number of shocks until system failure
4.2.2 Reliability characteristics of the system
4.3 A Markovian Approach for Reliability Assessment
4.4 Numerical Example and Remarks
Chapter 5 Allocation of Standbys in a K-out-of-N System
5.1 Model Description
5.2 Analytical Properties
5.3 Optimal Standby Allocation
5.4 Generalized Case
Chapter 6 A Stochastic EM Algorithm for Maintenance Modeling
6.1 Model Description
6.2 Stochastic EM Algorithm
6.3 Sampling Algorithms
6.3.1 Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm in Practice
6.3.2 Block Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm in Practice
6.3.3 Approximate Bayesian Computation in Practice
6.4 Comparison Methods
Chapter 7 Summary and Future Research Topics
7.1 Summary
7.2 Future Research Topics
中文详细摘要
参考文献
致谢
在读期间发表的学术论文与取得的其他研究成果
本文编号：3744794
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