暴雨灾害中公众持续使用微博获取灾害信息意愿的影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-04-07 19:11

本文选题：持续使用意愿　切入点：微博　出处：《武汉大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：当代自然灾害不仅会直接造成生命财产损失,更会带来诸多影响和谐稳定的社会问题,风险沟通则已经被广泛接受为应对这一局面的有效途径。成功的风险沟通要求政府在处置自然灾害风险时重视公众在风险沟通主体地位,需要通过有效加强与公众的互动来化解风险。而在目前的媒介化社会中,社交媒体是公众最常使用的媒介之一,要加强与公众的互动,提高自然灾害风险沟通的有效性,就必须结合用户的媒介使用习惯,考虑公众在遭遇自然灾害时是否会持续使用社交媒体来获取灾害信息。与此同时,大数据背景下的智能管理要求更高的大数据分析处理能力,这需要以建立特定的分析模型为基础,为了在政府自然灾害风险沟通工作中实现智能化,需要先行建立能够描述公众持续使用社交媒体获取灾害信息的相关模型,并通过严谨的量化研究得出相应结论,将此作为政府制定智能化自然灾害应急预案的依据。本研究从中国的实际出发,特别结合暴雨灾害这一研究背景,探索影响公众持续使用微博获取灾害信息意愿的因素。"持续使用意愿"属于抽象概念的范畴,在众多的研究方法中,结构方程模型被认为是一种能够较好测量抽象概念的研究方法。而在结构方程模型两大分支CB-SEM和PLS-SEM中,PLS-SEM又被证明具有更高的统计功效。因此本研究基于PLS-SEM,以整合性技术接受和使用模型(UTAUT)及期望确认模型(ECM)为理论基础,确定期望绩效、努力绩效、社会影响、便利条件、期望确认度、满意度、持续使用意愿7个变量,提出了若干假设,构建了结构方程模型,并通过问卷调查的方法搜集了研究数据。在借助SmartPLS 3估计了路径模型之后,本研究根据相关指标全面评估了测量模型和结构模型的结构方程模型结果。评估结果证明本研究的测量模型具有效度和信度,且结构模型适合于解释暴雨灾害中公众持续使用微博获取灾害信息意愿的影响因素,对持续使用意愿的解释力达66.6%。本研究在结论中指出,努力期望、社会影响、便利条件、满意度均直接正向影响了公众持续使用微博获取灾害信息的意愿,而绩效期望和期望确认度则通过满意度间接正向影响了公众持续使用微博获取灾害信息的意愿。期望确认度和满意度对公众在暴雨灾害中持续使用微博获取灾害信息的意愿影响的总效果较大。满意度在持续使用意愿的形成过程中起到了重要的中介作用。最后,基于研究结论,本研究对政府部门自然灾害风险沟通实际工作及智能化自然灾害应急预案的制定提供启示,同时讨论了本研究的局限与展望。本研究在理论上发展了关于信息技术接受的相关理论,在方法上可以对未来基于PLS-SEM的研究提供研究方法层面的借鉴,在实践上为政府部门提升自然灾害风险沟通成效提供了具体的建议,也为大数据背景下政府智能化应急预案制定提供模型依据。
[Abstract]:Modern natural disasters not only directly cause loss of life and property, but also bring many social problems that affect harmony and stability. Risk communication has been widely accepted as an effective way to deal with this situation.Successful risk communication requires the government to attach importance to the public's position as the subject of risk communication when dealing with natural disaster risk, and it needs to resolve the risk by effectively strengthening the interaction with the public.In the current media society, social media is one of the most popular media used by the public. In order to enhance interaction with the public and improve the effectiveness of natural disaster risk communication, it is necessary to combine the media usage habits of users.Consider whether the public will continue to use social media to access disaster information during natural disasters.At the same time, the intelligent management under the background of big data requires a higher analytical and processing capability, which needs to be based on the establishment of a specific analysis model, in order to realize intelligentization in the communication of government natural disaster risks.It is necessary to establish a relevant model to describe the public's continuous use of social media to obtain disaster information, and draw a conclusion through rigorous quantitative research, which can be used as the basis for the government to formulate intelligent natural disaster emergency preparedness plan.This study is based on the reality of China, especially on the background of rainstorm disaster, and explores the factors that affect the public's willingness to use Weibo to obtain disaster information. "The intention of continuous use "belongs to the category of abstract concept. Among many research methods, the structural equation model is considered to be a kind of research method which can measure the abstract concept well."In the two branches of structural equation model, CB-SEM and PLS-SEM, PLS-SEM has been proved to have higher statistical efficacy.Therefore, based on PLS-SEM, based on the integration technology acceptance and usage model (UTAUTT) and the expectation confirmation model (ECM), this study determines the expected performance, effort performance, social impact, convenience, expected confirmation, satisfaction.By using seven variables of will continuously, several hypotheses are put forward, the structural equation model is constructed, and the research data are collected by questionnaire.After estimating the path model with the aid of SmartPLS 3, the results of the structural equation model of the measurement model and the structural model are comprehensively evaluated according to the relevant indexes.The evaluation results show that the model has validity and reliability, and the structural model is suitable for explaining the influencing factors of the public's ability to use Weibo to obtain disaster information in torrential rain disasters, and the explanatory power to the intention of sustainable use is up to 66.6.In conclusion, this study points out that efforts to expect, social impact, convenience, satisfaction all have a direct positive impact on the public's willingness to use Weibo to obtain disaster information on a sustainable basis.On the other hand, the degree of performance expectation and expectation confirmation indirectly positively affects the public's willingness to use Weibo to obtain disaster information.The overall effect of expected confirmation and satisfaction on the willingness of the public to use Weibo to obtain disaster information in rainstorm disasters is significant.Satisfaction plays an important role in the process of forming the willingness to use continuously.Finally, based on the conclusions of the study, this study provides inspiration for the practical work of natural disaster risk communication and the formulation of intelligent emergency plan for natural disasters, and discusses the limitations and prospects of this study.This research has developed the related theories about the information technology acceptance theoretically, in the method may provide the research method aspect reference to the future research based on PLS-SEM.In practice, it provides specific suggestions for government departments to enhance the effectiveness of natural disaster risk communication, and provides a model basis for the formulation of intelligent emergency plans under the background of big data.
【学位授予单位】：武汉大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：G206

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