面向农业的台风灾害风险评估

发布时间：2018-06-22 06:55

本文选题：台风 + 农业　；参考：《华东师范大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：台风是影响巨大的灾害性天气系统。一方面,台风常带来充沛降水,可缓解部分地区的旱情,保障农业生产,对于淡水资源和生态环境维系具有重要意义;同时台风能够促进热循环,对于维持热平衡具有重要作用。另一方面,台风突发性强、破坏力大,往往带来重大损失,是世界上最严重的自然灾害之一。对台风导致的农业灾害进行风险评估是台风灾害响应研究的重要组成部分,是台风防灾减灾和损失评估的重要基础。在台风气象数据存在时空尺度限制、农业灾害数据统计不完整及其空间信息不明确,尤其是农作物受灾面积无法准确获得的条件下,进行台风导致农业灾害的风险评估非常有意义。因此,本研究即聚焦台风导致农业灾害的风险评估,主要从台风风险评价、台风影响下的农业灾损估算两个方面展开。其中,台风灾害的风险评价可以促进决策者清楚认识台风致灾的农作物分布状况及灾害程度的区域格局特征;而台风灾害导致的农业损失研究能够为防灾减灾、灾后重建及农业保险理赔工作提供相关依据,为农业健康稳定发展的政策支持提供参考。首先,在分析台风对农田及农作物影响的潜在机理基础上,探索台风导致农作物受灾的多方面因素,建立台风灾害风险评价体系。即通过深入了解台风致灾的相关途径,推理这些途径背后的可能过程,挖掘出台风影响农作物的11项关键致灾因子(涵盖大风、降雨、土壤、地形、河网等五个方面)。针对这些因子,再建立层次分析模型,调查评价不同致灾因子的相对重要性,确定不同因子在整体灾损评估模型中的权重,从而完成台风灾害风险评估。其次,选择广东省为台风导致农业灾损的估算示例区域,以农作物受灾面积作为估算的表征目标,从大风、降雨、土壤、地形、河网五个方面挖掘出8个台风致灾相关因子,并以此为自变量,建立多元线性回归判定方程,对降雨洪涝情境下农作物是否产生损失进行判断;并参考相关学者关于大风情况下农作物受灾状况的研究成果,建立大风情境下农作物受灾判定方程。随后,在台风历史记录中选择典型台风受灾案例数据,以上述降雨和大风的农作物受灾判定方程为基础,不断调整模型参数进行迭代,计算农作物受灾面积;再根据最小二乘原理对农业损失面积估算值与真实值进行比较,根据误差阈值条件最终确定模型参数,建立台风致灾的农业损失估算模型。最后,本研究另选其它台风致灾的案例数据验证模型,对台风致灾的农业损失估算模型进行可用性验证与精度评价。农业损失估算模型在广东省2008年09号台风"北冥"、2008年14号台风"黑格比"、2009年07号台风"天鹅"、2012年13号台风"启德"致灾的农作物损失面积估算的过程中,误差精度在20.3%以内。接着,选择不同的台风受灾案例数据,确定针对不同台风受灾案例数据下的农业损失估算模型参数,评价不同模型参数下台风致灾的农业损失估算模型的误差,分析台风灾情数据样本对农作物损失面积估算精度的影响。论文主要工作:建立了我国台风影响下的农业灾害风险评估模型,利用相关因子建立了台风导致的农作物损失估算模型,初步解决了台风导致的农作物受灾面积长期无法客观估算的问题;同时,选择不同台风灾情案例数据确定模型参数,对农作物损失面积估算模型的合理性进行验证,结果表明该方法在明确的灾情和地域情境下是有效的,为后续的精准建模及完善提供了一种框架性的视角。
[Abstract]:Typhoon is a huge and catastrophic weather system. On the one hand, typhoon often brings abundant precipitation, which can relieve the drought in some areas, ensure the agricultural production and maintain the fresh water resources and ecological environment. At the same time, typhoon can promote thermal cycle and play an important role in maintaining heat balance. On the other hand, typhoon is sudden and strong, It is one of the most serious natural disasters in the world, and it is one of the most serious natural disasters in the world. The risk assessment of the agricultural disasters caused by the typhoon is an important part of the typhoon disaster response research. It is an important basis for the typhoon disaster prevention and reduction and the loss assessment. It is very meaningful to assess the risk of agricultural disasters caused by typhoons. Therefore, this study focuses on the risk assessment of agricultural disasters caused by typhoons, mainly from typhoon risk assessment, and two agricultural disaster estimates under the influence of typhoons. Among them, the risk assessment of typhoon disaster can promote the decision-makers to understand the distribution of crops and the characteristics of the regional pattern of disasters, and the research on agricultural losses caused by typhoon disaster can provide the basis for disaster prevention and reduction, post disaster reconstruction and agricultural insurance compensation work, so that the health of Agriculture is stable and stable. First, on the basis of the analysis of the potential mechanism of Typhoon Effects on farmland and crops, we explore the multifaceted factors caused by the typhoon caused by the typhoon and establish the risk assessment system of typhoon disaster. That is, through the thorough understanding of the related ways of typhoon disaster, the possible process behind these channels is put forward and the typhoon is excavated. 11 key factors affecting crop disaster (including wind, rainfall, soil, terrain, river network, etc.). In view of these factors, a hierarchical analysis model is established to investigate the relative importance of different disaster factors and determine the weight of different factors in the overall damage assessment model, thus completing the risk assessment of Typhoon disaster. Secondly, This paper selects the example area of Guangdong province to estimate the damage of the typhoon caused by the typhoon. Taking the area of crop disaster as the target of estimation, we excavate 8 related factors of typhoon disaster from five aspects of wind, rain, soil, terrain and river network, and set up a multiple linear regression determination equation, and the crop is the crop under the situation of rainfall and flood. No loss is judged. And referring to the relevant scholars' research results on the situation of crop disaster in the wind situation, the determination equation of crop disaster in the wind situation is established. Then, the typical typhoon disaster case data is selected in the typhoon history record, based on the rainfall and the wind crop disaster determination equation. The whole model parameters are iterated and the crop disaster area is calculated. According to the least square principle, the estimated value of the agricultural loss area and the real value are compared, and the model parameters of the model are finally determined according to the error threshold conditions. Finally, the case data verification model of the typhoon caused disaster is selected in this study. The accuracy of the agricultural loss estimation model was 20.3% in the process of estimating the damage area of the crops caused by Typhoon "Eic", No. 07 typhoon "Swan" in 2009, and typhoon "Eic" on 2012 13. The accuracy of the agricultural loss estimation model was 20.3% in the process of estimating the area of crop loss caused by Typhoon "Eic" in 2012 13. Then, we choose different typhoon disaster case data to determine the parameters of the agricultural loss estimation model under the data of different typhoon disaster cases, evaluate the error of the agricultural loss estimation model of typhoon caused by different model parameters, and analyze the influence of typhoon disaster data samples on the estimation precision of agricultural crop loss area. Work: establishing the risk assessment model of agricultural disaster under the influence of typhoon in China, using related factors to establish the estimation model of crop loss caused by typhoon, and preliminarily solve the problem that the crop affected area caused by typhoon can not be objectively estimated for a long time. At the same time, the model parameters of different typhoon disaster cases are selected to determine the agricultural work. The rationality of the area estimation model is verified. The results show that the method is effective in the clear disaster situation and regional situation, and provides a framework perspective for the follow-up precision modeling and improvement.
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：S424

【参考文献】