河北省玉米供给反应研究——基于2003～2010年农户层面的动态面板分析
发布时间：2019-01-07 20:50
【摘要】：玉米已成为我国播种面积最大的粮食作物,同时玉米在主要粮食作物中比例也不断攀升。文章利用2003~2010年河北省农户玉米种植的动态面板数据,建立了农业供给反应(适应性预期)模型,采用广义矩阵估计方法(GMM),对影响河北省9个县534户农民的玉米供给和调整的价格、政策以及气候等因素进行了动态面板实证分析和相关探讨。基于农户玉米生产供给反应模型的理论框架,推导出研究所采用的动态面板适应性预期模型。结果表明,首先,河北省农户的玉米种植面积对于价格变化很敏感,玉米种植面积的长期价格弹性较大。其次,补贴政策对于农户种植玉米有一定的积极促进作用,但是农户对于补贴额的反应程度很小。再次,生产成本投入增加会制约河北省农户玉米种植。最后,降水对于保证玉米生产具有重要作用。因此,稳定玉米价格、继续加大政策支持力度、完善水利基础设施补贴力度对于保证河北省玉米生产和供给会产生积极促进作用。
[Abstract]:Maize has become the largest grain crop in China, and the proportion of maize in the main food crops is increasing. Based on the dynamic panel data of maize planting in Hebei province from 2003 to 2010, a model of agricultural supply response (adaptive expectation) was established, and the generalized matrix estimation method (GMM),) was used. The price, policy and climate of corn supply and adjustment of 534 farmers in nine counties of Hebei Province were analyzed and discussed. Based on the theoretical framework of farmers' corn production response model, the adaptive expectation model of dynamic panel is derived. The results show that, firstly, the corn planting area of farmers in Hebei Province is sensitive to the price change, and the long-term price elasticity of corn planting area is greater. Secondly, the subsidy policy has a positive effect on the farmers planting corn, but the farmers' response to the subsidy amount is very small. Thirdly, the increase of production cost will restrict farmers' corn planting in Hebei province. Finally, precipitation plays an important role in ensuring maize production. Therefore, stabilizing corn prices, increasing policy support and improving water conservancy infrastructure subsidies will play a positive role in ensuring corn production and supply in Hebei Province.
【作者单位】： 西安外国语大学经济金融学院;日本国际农林水产业研究中心;中国农业大学经济管理学院;农业部农村经济研究中心;
【基金】：中日合作研究课题“食物供求与预测分析” 中日合作项目“农产品供求展望与单产等的预测”
【分类号】：F323.7
本文编号：2404148
[Abstract]:Maize has become the largest grain crop in China, and the proportion of maize in the main food crops is increasing. Based on the dynamic panel data of maize planting in Hebei province from 2003 to 2010, a model of agricultural supply response (adaptive expectation) was established, and the generalized matrix estimation method (GMM),) was used. The price, policy and climate of corn supply and adjustment of 534 farmers in nine counties of Hebei Province were analyzed and discussed. Based on the theoretical framework of farmers' corn production response model, the adaptive expectation model of dynamic panel is derived. The results show that, firstly, the corn planting area of farmers in Hebei Province is sensitive to the price change, and the long-term price elasticity of corn planting area is greater. Secondly, the subsidy policy has a positive effect on the farmers planting corn, but the farmers' response to the subsidy amount is very small. Thirdly, the increase of production cost will restrict farmers' corn planting in Hebei province. Finally, precipitation plays an important role in ensuring maize production. Therefore, stabilizing corn prices, increasing policy support and improving water conservancy infrastructure subsidies will play a positive role in ensuring corn production and supply in Hebei Province.
【作者单位】： 西安外国语大学经济金融学院;日本国际农林水产业研究中心;中国农业大学经济管理学院;农业部农村经济研究中心;
【基金】：中日合作研究课题“食物供求与预测分析” 中日合作项目“农产品供求展望与单产等的预测”
【分类号】：F323.7
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1 谭砚文,李朝晖;中美棉花生产者供给行为的比较分析——基于适应性预期模型的实证研究[J];华南农业大学学报(社会科学版);2005年03期
，本文编号：2404148
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