美元能持续作为全球货币？

发布时间：2017-01-05 08:24

储备货币是大量由中央银行和主要金融机构储备的货币，，作为外汇储备一部分，意味着以清偿国际债务的义务，或影响其本国的汇率。大部分采用商品如黄金和石油是国际交易和储备货币，造成其他国家持有这种货币来支付这些物资的通常定价。

直到 18 世纪钱由贵重金属制成，不能印制。从 1700 年到 1900 年英国英镑、 法国法郎和荷兰盾被用作其他国家储备的主要货币。几十年之前第一次世界大战中，国际金本位制成为储备为大多数经济体的偏好。第二次世界大战结束给布雷顿森林体系让路，其中，美国政府保证其他中央银行可以以他们想要的固定率售卖美元储备金。 

These were the seeds sown by the US government to make its currency a globally accepted reserve currency.

This was followed by the European countries and Japan deliberately devaluing their currencies against the dollar to boost exports and development. This made the dollar stronger by every passing moment. However, concerns about the growing deficits in the US, eventually were unattended due to a lack of a competitor currency.

Is the US Dollar as a reserve currency sustainable?
The primarily reason to question the sustainability of Dollar being positioned as 'global reserve currency' is due to declining value and adverse fundamentals of United States. The Dollar has fallen by 15% against major global currencies since March 2009. The widening fiscal deficit and public debt has deteriorated the fundamentals of United States.

For the fiscal year 2009 the deficit amounted to a record of US$1.42 trillion (more than 3 times the record set in FY2009). 'Formerly the creditor of the world, U.S. is now the largest debtor of the world'. As per the statistics1, the US national debt (or public debt) stands at US$11.8 trillion (approximately US$38,679/citizen). Over the past 2 years, the national debt increased by US$3.75 billion/day. However, the national debt amount does not include intra governmental debt obligations or debt held for Social Security. Adding this, the total debt of United States will balloon to over US$59.1 trillion (a mind blowing 4.1x of fiscal year 2008 GDP2). The US government would find it difficult to pay an additional interest rate of 1% as that would drain out US$591 billion out of the US economy (or about 4.1% of 2008 GDP).

Persistent rise in fiscal deficit and national debt of United States is being a cause of worry for private investors and governments that have lent to the US government. The debt burden on the US government has now become enormous that additional lending could be considered as a risky investment. US Federal Bank, once considered a safe haven post the second world war, is now facing a severe national debt crisis which could destroy the future of US$ being continued as the reserve currency globally.

Coupled with the US economic crisis and its currency depreciation over the past few years, which started with the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 led to massive reduction in consumer and corporate spending. This resulted in the global liquidity crisis as the United States could not supply its currency to the world. Also, changing attitude of Americans and the Obama administration to move towards 'savings' fromthe current 'spending' economy could pose a threat for Dollar to maintain its reserve currency status.

The Alternative to the Dollar
Before the dollar loses its supremacy, let's look at the various alternatives to the dollar as the future reserve currency.

Euro: The Euro is the world's most actively traded currency following the dollar thereby making it highly liquid. Also, the Euro is the second largest reserve currency in the world (refer in table below). It has consistently increased its share since its inception in 1999. Countries such as Russia have replaced Euro as its basic reserve currency from the existing Dollar. Russia now holds about 47.5% of its reserves in Euro (about 6% points more than US$) 3.

However, becoming a reserve currency for the world could create substantial problems for the European Union economy. Once a reserve currency, the demand for Euro by central banks globally would increase thereby pushing up the value of its currency. This could significantly hamper the EU economies as majority of its countries are highly dependent on exports.

IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDRs): In March 2009, China called for the revamping of the international monetary system. China wants SDRs to replace the Dollar as the new international reserve currency and diminish the US economic supremacy.

China has suggested that SDR has the potential to act as a "super-sovereign" reserve currency, spanning national jurisdictions and could infuse confidence in the international monetary system. The proposal would reduce the risks associated as the currency would be backed by 'real gold' rather than 'credit' issued by the issuing country. Also, using SDR would enable managing global liquidity and imbalances more effectively.

Supranational currency: Just prior to the G20 meet, in March 2009, Russia proposed introduction of a 'supra-national currency' to be issued by international financial institutions. The Russian government also designed the coin for the new currency thereby showing clear signs of its intentions to replace the Dollar. However, the primarily reason for this move by Russia is to replace the Dollar dominance in global trade.

Asia-common currency: Since the 1997 Asian crisis, Asian countries have strived together to maintain economic stability among their countries and currencies. In September 2009, the Asian Development Bank chief called for founding of 'Asia-common' currency, as a part of a joint effort to prevent any future global financial crisis and reducing exchange rate risks. Once formulated, it would become the third international monetary currency.

The agreement of Asian giant i.e. the Chinese economy would be crucial to establish a common Asian currency, as it plays a large role in the global trade activity. Also the establishment of the 'Asia-common' currency could be possible in 5-7 years.

Chinese Yuan: The debate of Chinese 'Yuan' emerging as the global reserve currency has been going on since sometimes. However, it is strangely fascinating to know that 'Yuan' is being termed as the possible replacement for Dollar at a time when currency is still under exchange control and China is yet to attain full capital account convertibility.

China's aspires to make its currency more powerful globally, however it doesn't not foresee 'Yuan' replacing the US Dollar as the primary reserve currency. The government has indicated its goal of 'Yuan' contributing more than 3% of global foreign exchange reserves by 2020. This clearly rules out any speculation of the 'Yuan' replacing the Dollar in the future, perhaps decades.

Conclusion 结论
According to Professor Avinash Persuad, "If your currency is a reserve currency, you can pay for things by writing cheques, which nobody cashes. You can spend more than you earn to a far greater extent than anyone else." This is exactly what United States has done over the past years. Also, having the international currency status lends the host country greater influence among nations worldwide.

However the sustainability of US Dollar as a dominant global reserve currency seems bleak due to the weakening currency, poor fundamentals, constant rise in debt burden, and changes in attitude to save rather than spend. Also, the declining confidence in US Dollar among other major countries such as China, Russia and Gulf countries to name a few makes it evident that there is a need for a significant change in the international monetary system.

The strongest contender that can replace the US Dollar is the Euro, but the European Central Bank has refrained from promoting Euro as an international reserve currency as it would affect its domestic economy. The Chinese Yuan could have been a strong replacement if it had not followed exchange control policies and adopted complete capital account convertibility. This leaves us with 2 possible alternatives - the SDRs and having multiple global currencies (i.e. 3 major global currencies: US Dollar, Euro, and Single-Asia currency).

However, shifting to an alternative reserve currency would require consensus among countries apart from other legal, political and economic frameworks which would be considered. This process of gradual unwinding of the US Dollar dominance and replacement with a new global reserve currency could take a long time i.e. about a decade.

"The dollar is dead, the process of burial is in progress!!!"

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