基于蒙特卡罗模拟的影视传媒企业的价值评估

发布时间：2018-05-09 22:17

本文选题：影视传媒 + DCF模型　；参考：《首都经济贸易大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着影视传媒行业的快速发展,人们对于影视传媒企业评估价值评估的精确度要求越来越高,然而,比较适合影视传媒企业价值评估的收益法,并没有将处于不断变化环境中的不确定因素考虑进来。不确定性的描述可以用统计的若干理论来表达,对历史数据剖析可以得出不确定性变量的概率分布。本文应用蒙特卡罗模拟,对影视传媒企业价值评估中的不确定性因素定量描述进行探索。本文首先介绍了基于影视传媒企业价值评估的重要意义,在此基础上从行业的界定、行业现状、行业的有利因素与不利因素及评估方法的选择方面对影视传媒进一步了解,第三章对DCF模型参数的确定以及影视传媒行业不确定性的影响因素进行分析,第四章从蒙特卡罗模拟的概述、模型设计、随机抽样、模拟次数的选择及模拟结果的表达对蒙特卡罗模拟改进收益法的详细过程简要介绍,第五章分别用传统收益法和基于蒙特卡罗模拟改进的收益法对HC影视传媒企业进行价值评估,然后将两组评估结果进行比较分析。比较可得,蒙特卡罗改进的收益法,在进行影视传媒企业价值评估时,充分考虑不确定性,将变量的波动性考虑进来,得到合理的评估区间,使评估结果的使用者有更大的选择范围,增加评估的客观性、合理性、灵活性。其中,该篇论文中蒙特模拟借助MATLAB完成,提高模拟准确性。基于蒙特卡罗模拟的影视传媒企业的价值评估丰富了评估方法体系。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the film and television media industry, the accuracy of the evaluation of the film and television media enterprises is more and more high. However, it is more suitable for the profit method of the film and television media enterprises' value evaluation. Uncertainties in a changing environment are not taken into account. The description of uncertainty can be expressed by some theories of statistics, and the probability distribution of uncertain variables can be obtained by analyzing historical data. In this paper, Monte Carlo simulation is used to explore the quantitative description of uncertain factors in the evaluation of the value of film and television media enterprises. This paper first introduces the significance of the value evaluation of the film and television media enterprises, and on this basis, further understanding the film and television media from the definition of the industry, the current situation of the industry, the favorable and unfavorable factors of the industry and the selection of evaluation methods. The third chapter analyzes the parameters of DCF model and the influencing factors of the uncertainty in film and television media industry. The fourth chapter analyzes the overview of Monte Carlo simulation, model design, random sampling, The selection of simulation times and the expression of simulation results briefly introduce the detailed process of Monte Carlo simulation to improve the income method. In the fifth chapter, the traditional income method and the improved income method based on Monte Carlo simulation are used to evaluate the value of HC film and television media enterprises, and then the two groups of evaluation results are compared and analyzed. More available, Monte Carlo improved income method, in the film and television media enterprise value evaluation, fully take into account the uncertainty, the volatility of the variables into account, get a reasonable evaluation interval, Users of evaluation results have a wider range of choices, increasing the objectivity, rationality and flexibility of the evaluation. In this paper, Monte simulation is completed with MATLAB to improve the accuracy of simulation. The value evaluation of film and television media enterprises based on Monte Carlo simulation enriches the evaluation method system.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：J943;F275

【参考文献】