期权定价法在电影版权价值评估中的应用研究

发布时间：2018-08-17 15:11

【摘要】：全球化进程不断加快,公民的文化需求水平日益提高,文化产业逐渐成为国民经济发展的重要支柱。2014年上半年国内文化传媒业约发生125起并购重组与战略性入股事件,交易金额达1000亿元人民币。电影产业作为文化传媒业的重要组成部分,将创意、生产和商品融为一体。电影制作企业以电影版权为核心资产,版权价值的确定是其进行融资与版权交易的关键。然而,目前国内缺乏完善的电影版权价值评估体系,这无疑限制了电影产业的良性发展。本文以此为切入点,首先,对期权定价法在电影版权价值评估中的国内外研究现状进行概述,指出对电影版权价值进行评估的研究意义与现实需求。一方面,可以为电影版权融资和流转提供参考;另一方面,可以促进评估行业更好发展,同时增强电影产业对经济的带动作用。其次,阐述期权定价的基本思想及主要模型,对电影版权价值评估涉及的相关概念进行论述,重点分析了版权价值影响因素,并将研究对象确定为电影放映权价值。再次,从电影版权具有的期权特征入手,阐述电影版权价值评估中B-S模型的构建思路,重点论述了电影票房收入、波动率等参数的确定方法。最后,对电影版权价值进行实证分析,构建出以票房收入为因变量,以放映档期、放映场次、投资额度和制片人为自变量的多元回归模型,并对模型的合理性进行验证,进而确定了电影放映权价值。本文对电影版权价值展开期权定价研究,并构建了电影票房收入预测模型,可为版权融资和流转提供参考,为评估方法的完善提供借鉴,为电影产业的更好发展助力。
[Abstract]:The process of globalization is speeding up, the level of cultural needs of citizens is increasing day by day, and the cultural industry is gradually becoming an important pillar of the development of the national economy. In the first half of 2014, there were about 125 incidents of mergers and acquisitions and strategic investment in the domestic cultural media industry. The transaction amount amounted to 100 billion yuan. As an important part of the cultural media industry, the film industry combines creativity, production and commodities. Film production enterprises take film copyright as their core asset, and the determination of copyright value is the key to financing and copyright trading. However, there is no perfect evaluation system of film copyright value in China, which undoubtedly limits the benign development of film industry. This paper takes this as the starting point, first of all, summarizes the domestic and foreign research status of option pricing method in the evaluation of film copyright value, and points out the significance and practical demand of the research on the evaluation of film copyright value. On the one hand, it can provide a reference for the financing and circulation of film copyright; on the other hand, it can promote the better development of the evaluation industry, and at the same time, enhance the role of the film industry in promoting the economy. Secondly, it expounds the basic idea and main model of option pricing, discusses the related concepts involved in the evaluation of film copyright value, analyzes the influencing factors of copyright value, and determines the object of study as the value of film projection right. Thirdly, starting with the option characteristics of film copyright, this paper expounds the idea of constructing B-S model in the evaluation of film copyright value, and discusses emphatically the determination method of movie box office income, volatility and other parameters. Finally, an empirical analysis of the value of film copyright is carried out, and a multivariate regression model with box office income as dependent variable, projection time, screening number, investment quota and producer as independent variables is constructed, and the rationality of the model is verified. Furthermore, it determines the value of the right to film projection. In this paper, the option pricing of the value of film copyright is studied, and the prediction model of film box office income is constructed, which can provide reference for copyright financing and circulation, provide reference for the improvement of evaluation methods, and help the film industry to develop better.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：J943

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