基于CVM的三江平原湿地生态资源非使用价值评价

发布时间：2018-01-16 05:01

本文关键词：基于CVM的三江平原湿地生态资源非使用价值评价　出处：《东北农业大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：湿地是地球上功能独特的生态系统,它不仅具有观光旅游价值、艺术观赏价值、科学考察价值以及历史文化价值,还能调节气候、蓄养水源、降解污染、保护湿地生物多样性以及为工农业生产和人民生活提供基本保障,并为当地创造巨大的经济、社会及生态效益。素有“北大荒”之称的三江平原,除了是全国重要的产粮基地,还是全球极为少见的淡水沼泽湿地之一,在功能上,具有明显的不可复制性和无可替代性。近年来,湿地生态资源的开发多以开展相关生态旅游活动的形式展开,但因处在发展初期,理论与实践研究相脱离,致使湿地生态资源的开发存在一定的盲目性和破坏性。如何寻求湿地生态资源开发和保护之间的平衡点,在宏观政策上做出策略性部署,成为我们研究工作中要解决的首要问题。而解决问题的关键在于对湿地生态资源的非使用价值进行全面、客观的评价。为此,论文在广泛调研的基础上,运用条件估值法(Contingent Valuation Method,CVM)对三江平原湿地生态资源的非使用价值进行测算。论文首先介绍生态资源价值评价方面涉及的理论基础,并对CVM方法的原理、支付意愿引导技术、计算模型、方法自身和应用过程中存在的偏差及方法效度、信度检验等方面内容做出详细阐述。为提高问卷结果的信度和效度,论文对调研过程中可能出现的偏差进行处理,并结合预调查反映的实际情况,对问卷做出适当修正。此次调研过程中采用双边界二分式问卷形式,在2013年6月至9月间进行面访式问卷调查,按分层抽样原理,以各地区人口总数按比例确定问卷数量。此次问卷调查共发放问卷1260份,回收问卷1010份,问卷响应率较高。随后,建立“真实零响应”和“抗议性零响应”识别机制,运用抗议性支付率衡量问卷结果的有效性。论文分别运用随机效用模型和Spike模型对问卷调查数据进行计算,并将结果作对比分析。文中首先对各影响因素变量进行相关性分析,并用因子分析提取不易获得的主因子变量,带入Logit模型进行回归分析,降低问卷数据分析的难度。结果显示,年龄、文化层次、个人年收入,湿地了解程度、环保的关心程度、湿地生态资源的开发对生活的影响、对旅游的热爱程度和对三江平原湿地的偏爱程度等因素对资源非使用价值有显著影响。最终,随机效用模型求解得到三江平原湿地生态资源的非使用价值为58.34亿元/年;Spike模型是在传统随机效用模型的基础上,考虑零响应问卷对受访者支付意愿的影响,得到三江平原湿地生态资源的非使用价值为44.71亿元/年。为检验CVM估计结果效度,论文选取内容效度和理论效度两种检验指标对数据进行分析,结果表明条件估值法结果的效度较高。而估计结果的信度则采用时间检验法,在2014年7月下旬至8月初,运用相同问卷调查过程对同一受访群体中的不同样本进行重复调查,结果具有较好的重现性。论文尝试对三江平原湿地生态资源非使用价值进行货币化评价的同时,将“零响应”样本纳入分析评价模型,推进Spike模型在CVM数据分析中的应用进程,这是对CVM方法数据统计分析理论及过程的不断拓展与完善。评估结果可作为三江平原湿地生态环境开发项目的开展和资源开发与保护的理论依据,为政府制定相关政策提供理论技术支持,以确保湿地生态资源的长久、稳定及可持续发展。
[Abstract]:Wetland is a unique ecological function of the earth system, it not only has tourism value, art value, scientific research value and historical and cultural value, also regulate the climate, raising water, degradation of pollution, protection of wetland biodiversity and provides the basic guarantee for industrial and agricultural production and people's life, and create huge economic and social benefits to the local. The social and ecological benefits. Known as the "the Great Northern Wilderness" of the Sanjiang plain, in addition is the national important production base, is the world's one of the extremely rare in the freshwater marsh wetland, has obvious function, can not be copied and irreplaceable. In recent years, the development of wetland ecological resources to carry out tourism activities the relevant ecological form, but in the early stages of development, the research of theory and practice from the blindness and destruction of certain development in wetland ecological resources. How to seek The balance between development and protection of wetland ecological resources, make strategic deployment in the macroeconomic policy, has become the primary problem to be solved in our research work. The key to solve the problem of wetland ecological resources in the non use value of a comprehensive, objective evaluation. This paper, on the basis of extensive research, the use of conditions the valuation method (Contingent Valuation Method, CVM) were measured on the Sanjiang plain wetland ecological resources of the non use value. This thesis first introduces the theoretical basis of evaluation of ecological resource value involved, and the principle of the CVM method, the willingness to pay to guide technology, calculation model, method and validity of deviation method and its application in the process of hand the reliability test content made in detail. In order to improve the reliability and validity of the questionnaire results, the deviation may appear in the course of the research process, and combined with the The actual situation of the pre survey report, make appropriate amendments to the questionnaire. The questionnaire of two fractional double boundary the research process, were interviewed by questionnaire survey in June 2013 to September, according to the principle of stratified sampling, determining the number of questionnaires in proportion to the total population of the area. This survey a total of 1260 questionnaires, recycling 1010 questionnaires, the questionnaire response rate was higher. Subsequently, the establishment of "true zero response" and "protest zero response" recognition mechanism, using effective protest payment rate to measure. The thesis used the questionnaire results of random utility model and Spike model to calculate the survey data, and the results were analyzed in this paper. First of all the variables influencing factors by correlation analysis and factor analysis to extract the main factor variables is not easy to obtain, into the Logit model regression analysis to reduce the difficulty of questionnaire data analysis . the results showed that the age, cultural level, personal income, wetland understanding degree, level of interest in environmental protection, affecting the development of wetland ecological resources for life, love and factors of tourism in Sanjiang plain wetland resources in the degree of preference for non use values have significant effects. Finally, to solve the random utility model Sanjiang plain wetland ecological resources of the non use value is 5 billion 834 million yuan / year; the Spike model is based on the traditional random utility model, considering the influence of zero response questionnaire for respondents' willingness to pay, get the Sanjiang plain wetland ecological resources of the non use value is 4 billion 471 million yuan / year. In order to test the results of CVM validity, this paper selects the content the validity and validity of theory two test index to analyze the data, results show that the higher the validity conditions of valuation method results. The reliability and the estimated results by test method, in 201 4 years from late July to early August, using the same questionnaire on the same respondents of different sample groups were repeated survey, the result has a good repeatability. This thesis attempts to Sanjiang plain wetland ecological resources in the non use value of currency evaluation at the same time, the "zero response" into the sample analysis and evaluation model, promote the application process of Spike model in analysis of CVM data, which is based on the CVM statistical method to constantly expand and improve the theory and analysis process. The evaluation results can be used as the Sanjiang wetland ecological environment development project and resource exploitation and protection of the theoretical basis, provide theoretical and technical support for the government to formulate relevant policies to ensure the wetland ecological resources for a long time, stable and sustainable development.

【学位授予单位】：东北农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X826

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