基于关键链和模糊综合评价的科技园区建设项目进度管理研究

发布时间：2018-07-03 04:13

本文选题：进度管理 + 关键链　；参考：《中国科学院大学(工程管理与信息技术学院)》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：科技园区项目包括土地开发、基础设施建设、环境治理、景观建设、办公、住宅、商业等诸多开发项目建设。各类项目在计划编制和施工过程中,往往存在时间和资源的竞争关系,导致项目实际工期存在较大的模糊度,给项目工期预测和项目进度带来极大困难。首先,根据科技园区项目建筑单位的自身特点以及影响工期估值的主要因素,本文根据模糊理论提出了一种基于梯度模型的关键链工期估计方法,从数学意义上表征这种模糊性,获得具有一定可信程度的工期估计值,使用该方法解决关键链的缓冲区设置问题。其次,针对于不确定性和资源冲突问题,在模糊数学的基础上,引入了补偿因子。利用具有一定可信度的工期估计值建立关键链和计算缓冲区,利用补偿因子监控和分析可能存在的资源冲突。然后,关键链管理方面,针对传统关键链方法中,缓冲区的动态消耗行为不易被察觉的情况,本文提出了风险监控函数。使用该函数和传统缓冲区管理方法相结合,能够保障管理者提前发现并处理缓冲区高速消耗的情况。最后,针对科技园区项目进度管理中的常见问题,以C工程为实例,使用该方法建立关键链和缓冲区,最后通过在实施过程中不断监控和分析补偿风险系数的变化来监管关键链的执行过程。项目的实施经验表明,该方法具有良好的可行性。本文针对影响科技园区工程进度的不确定性因素,利用基于概率统计分析的模糊评价方法,提出更加可靠的缓冲区计算方法,建立具有一定可信度的关键链进度管理法体系,从而解决项目进度管理的计划编制方法和相关问题,对于科技园区类项目的进度计划设置和管理具有一定的指导意义。
[Abstract]:The project of science and technology park includes land development, infrastructure construction, environmental governance, landscape construction, office, housing, business and many other development projects. In the process of planning and construction, there is often a competitive relationship between time and resources in the process of planning and construction, which leads to the existence of a great degree of fuzziness in the actual project period and the project time forecast and project. The progress brings great difficulties. Firstly, according to the characteristics of the construction unit of the Science Park and the main factors that affect the time period valuation, this paper proposes a critical chain time estimation method based on the fuzzy theory, which is based on the gradient model. This method is used to solve the problem of buffer setting in key chains. Secondly, on the basis of fuzzy mathematics, the compensation factor is introduced on the basis of fuzzy mathematics for uncertainty and resource conflict. The key chain and calculation buffer are established by using the estimated time period of certain credibility, and the possible resource conflicts are monitored and analyzed by the compensatory factor. After the key chain management, in view of the situation that the dynamic consumption behavior of the buffer zone is not easy to be detected in the traditional key chain method, the risk monitoring function is proposed in this paper. The combination of this function and the traditional buffer management method can guarantee the manager to find and deal with the high-speed consumption of the buffer zone in advance. Finally, it is aimed at the science and technology park. The common problem in project schedule management is an example of C engineering, which uses this method to establish key chain and buffer zone. Finally, through monitoring and analyzing the change of the compensation risk coefficient constantly during the implementation process, the implementation process of key chain is monitored. The implementation experience of the project shows that the method has good feasibility. This paper is aimed at influencing the technology of science and technology. The uncertain factors of the park project progress, using the fuzzy evaluation method based on the probability and statistics analysis, put forward a more reliable calculation method of the buffer zone, and set up a key chain schedule management system with certain credibility, so as to solve the planning method and related problems of project schedule management, and the progress of the project of science and technology park. The planning and management are of certain guiding significance.
【学位授予单位】：中国科学院大学(工程管理与信息技术学院)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F276.44

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