西安市都市农业生态系统服务价值动态变化及预测研究
发布时间：2018-11-06 18:04
【摘要】：随着城市化和工业化快速发展,引起的城市生态环境污染和破坏问题日益严重,现代都市农业的生态服务功能对于塑造城市健康的生存空间和生态环境愈加重要,都市农业能为城市提供粮食等农产品,净化和调节大气环境,还能满足城市居民休闲观光旅游等多种功能。伴随着西安工农业和城市化快速发展,西安市区以及周边区域的河流、土地、大气环境等遭到严重的污染破坏,都市农业生态系统是生态系统的重要组成部分之一,不仅为城市提供生产服务功能,还提供城市大气净化与调节、水源涵养以及城市绿色景观塑造等生态服务功能,这些功能对维持城市及郊区生态环境健康发展愈益重要。当前,都市农业生态服务功能及其价值测评研究成为国内生态学、地理学、生态经济学领域各学者研究的热门问题。本文以西安市为研究对象,基于遥感数据、经济社会统计数据以及实地调研数据,运用3S技术及生态系统服务价值理论和方法,并结合西安市都市农业发展现状,对当量因子做适当修改,测评都市农业生态系统服务价值,在分析的基础之上,建立灰色预测GM(1,1)和马尔科夫动态预测模型,模拟预测未来几年西安市都市农业生态系统服务价值变化趋势。主要研究结论如下：1.都市农业用地变化：(1)2000-2013年,西安市各农业用地类型的面积均发生了不同程度的变化,都市农业用地类型主要以耕地和林地为主。(2)西安市2000-2013年农业用地类型动态度的变化与农业用地类型面积的变化幅度一致,其中园地的增加最快,其次是草地和居民用地；(3)2000-2013年期间,西安市的整体农业用地利用程度处于发展期,发展速度较快。2.西安市都市农业生态服务价值的时间变化特征： (1)2000、2006、2013年西安市都市农业生态系统服务总价值依次为236.76×108元、210.22×108元、219.85×108元,呈现先减少后增加的趋势,在空间分布上呈现从南向北递减的趋势。(2)从都市农业用地类型来看,2000-2006年,林地在生态系统服务价值中的贡献率最大,从2006-2013年,林地生态系统服务价值占总价值的比例增加了3.86%。2000-2013年,园地的面积急剧增加,所提供的生态系统服务价值不断增加,提高了5.52%。14年间,耕地、水体的面积不断减少,提供的生态系统服务价值分别减少了2.07%、1.47%。(3)从各单项生态系统服务价值来看,2000-2013年各单项因子的生态系统服务价值呈下降趋势,但变化程度各有不同,其中水源涵养与废物处理的价值减少最大,娱乐文化与食物生产的价值减少最小,土壤形成与保护是各单项生态系统服务价值中最大的。3.西安市都市农业生态系统服务总价值的空间变化特征：都市农业生态系统服务总价值减幅相对比较大的区域集中分布蓝田中北部和临潼东南部地区,从2000-2013年减少范围呈现缩小趋势,而周至、户县和长安区部分地区,生态服务价值有小幅度的增加。主要是因为这些地区,林地、园地趋于集中分布,近几年都市农业的发展,调整农业结构,建立了一系列都市农业示范园区以及旅游农业观光带,林地、园地面积增加幅度大,这些区域表现出的生态服务价值较高,构成西安市社会经济发展的生态屏障。4.模拟预测结果表明：(1)从单项功能服务价值的预测趋势来看,娱乐文化和大气调节功能的生态服务价值增幅相对比较大,随着政府不断加大都市农业示范园区的建设,形成各种示范园区、无公害蔬菜生产基地以及观光园区,林地和园地面积将不断增加,园地和林地所提供的气体调节和生态系统维护能力将会增强。随着人们物质消费水平的提高,更多追求精神文化和娱乐休闲方面的享受,娱乐文化功能的地位将不断提升。(2)从生态系统服务总价值预测结果来看,生态系统服务价值总量呈增加趋势,从2013-2033年,生态系统服务价值年均增长14469.5万元。从2000年到2033年,耕地的生态系统服务价值整体呈下降趋势,而园地和林地的生态系统服务价值不断上升,特别是园地的生态系统服务价值变化比较明显,从2000年的11640.8万元增加到2013的132146.2万元,随着政府对农业示范园区不断鼓励和建设,到2033年增加到143892万元,水体和草地提供的生态服务价值略有增加。总的来说,从生态服务总价值可以看出,西安市未来十几年的农业生态系统基本是呈良性发展的。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of urbanization and industrialization, the problems of urban ecological environment pollution and destruction are becoming more and more serious. The ecological service function of modern urban agriculture is more and more important to shape the living space and ecological environment of urban health. the invention can purify and adjust the atmospheric environment, and can also meet various functions of urban residents' leisure and sightseeing. With the rapid development of Xi 'an industry and agriculture and urbanization, the urban agricultural ecosystem is one of the important components of the ecosystem, and not only provides the production service function for the city, It also provides the functions of the urban air purification and regulation, the water conservation and the green landscape of the city, which is of great importance to the maintenance of the healthy development of the ecological environment in the urban and rural areas. At present, the function of urban agricultural ecological service and its evaluation of its value become a hot topic for scholars in the fields of domestic ecology, geography and ecological economics. Based on remote sensing data, economic and social statistics and field investigation data, this paper uses 3S technology and ecosystem service value theory and method to make appropriate modification to the equivalent factor based on the current situation of urban agricultural development in Xi' an. On the basis of the analysis, the grey forecast GM (1,1) and the Markov dynamic prediction model are established to simulate the change trend of the service value of the urban agricultural ecosystem in Xi 'an in the next few years. The main findings are as follows: 1. Urban agricultural land change: (1) In 2000-2013, the area of various agricultural land types in Xi' an has changed, and the type of urban agricultural land is mainly cultivated land and forest land. (2) The change of the dynamic attitude of the agricultural land type in Xi 'an in 2000-2013 is consistent with the change of the area of the agricultural land type, in which the increase of the land area is the fastest, followed by the land use of the grassland and the residents; (3) During the period 2000-2013, the utilization degree of the whole agricultural land in Xi' an is in the development period. the speed of development is fast. The time-changing characteristics of the value of the urban agricultural ecological service in Xi 'an City are: (1) The total value of the urban agricultural ecosystem services in Xi' an City in the year 2000, 2006 and 2013 is 236. 76, 108 yuan, 210. 22, 108 yuan, 21.9. 85 to 108 yuan, and the trend of increasing after the first decrease is presented, and the trend of decreasing from the south to the north is presented in the spatial distribution. (2) From the type of urban agricultural land, in 2000-2006, the contribution rate of the forest land in the value of ecosystem services was the largest. From 2006 to 2013, the total value of the forest ecosystem service value increased by 3.86%. The area of the garden area increased sharply in 2000-2013. The value of ecosystem services provided increased by 5.52%. During the 14-year period, the area of cultivated land and water was reduced, and the value of ecosystem services provided was decreased by 2.07% and 1.47%, respectively. (3) From the value of each individual ecosystem services, the value of the ecosystem services of the individual factors in the period 2000-2013 is declining, but the degree of change is different, among which the value of water conservation and waste treatment is reduced, the value of the entertainment culture and the food production is reduced to the minimum, Soil formation and protection is the largest in the value of individual ecosystem services. The spatial change of the total value of the urban agricultural ecosystem services in Xi 'an city: the relatively large area of the total value of the total value of the urban agricultural ecosystem services is concentrated in the north and the south-eastern part of the north and south-east of the city, and the reduction trend of the urban agricultural ecosystem services from 2000 to 2013 is reduced, and the period to, There is a small increase in the value of the ecological service in some parts of the county and the long-an area. mainly because of the concentrated distribution of the forest land and the garden, the development of urban agriculture in recent years, the adjustment of the agricultural structure, the establishment of a series of urban agricultural demonstration parks and the tourism agricultural sightseeing belt, the forest land and the garden area, The ecological services represented by these regions are of high value and constitute an ecological barrier to the social and economic development of Xi' an. The results of the simulation show that: (1) The value of the ecological service of the entertainment culture and the air conditioning function is relatively large from the forecast trend of the value of the single function service, and as the government continuously increases the construction of the urban agricultural demonstration park, various demonstration parks are formed. The area of the pollution-free vegetable production base and the sightseeing park, the forest land and the garden area will be continuously increased, and the gas regulation and the ecological system maintenance capacity provided by the garden land and the forest land will be enhanced. With the improvement of people's material consumption level, more pursuit of the enjoyment of spiritual culture and entertainment and leisure, the status of the function of entertainment and culture will be promoted. (2) From the result of the total value forecast of ecosystem services, the total value of ecosystem services is increasing, from 2013 to 2033, the annual growth of ecosystem service value is 146.9 million yuan. From 2000 to 2033, the value of ecosystem services in the cultivated land is declining, while the value of ecosystem services in the garden and the forest land is increasing, especially the value of the ecosystem services in the park is relatively obvious, from 116480,000 yuan in 2000 to 132146 million yuan in 2013. With the government's continuous encouragement and construction of the agricultural demonstration park, the value of the ecological service provided by the water body and the grassland increased slightly from 2033 to 143892 million yuan. In general, from the total value of the ecological service, it can be seen that the agricultural ecosystem in Xi 'an over the next ten years is a benign development.
【学位授予单位】：陕西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F323.22
本文编号：2315063
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of urbanization and industrialization, the problems of urban ecological environment pollution and destruction are becoming more and more serious. The ecological service function of modern urban agriculture is more and more important to shape the living space and ecological environment of urban health. the invention can purify and adjust the atmospheric environment, and can also meet various functions of urban residents' leisure and sightseeing. With the rapid development of Xi 'an industry and agriculture and urbanization, the urban agricultural ecosystem is one of the important components of the ecosystem, and not only provides the production service function for the city, It also provides the functions of the urban air purification and regulation, the water conservation and the green landscape of the city, which is of great importance to the maintenance of the healthy development of the ecological environment in the urban and rural areas. At present, the function of urban agricultural ecological service and its evaluation of its value become a hot topic for scholars in the fields of domestic ecology, geography and ecological economics. Based on remote sensing data, economic and social statistics and field investigation data, this paper uses 3S technology and ecosystem service value theory and method to make appropriate modification to the equivalent factor based on the current situation of urban agricultural development in Xi' an. On the basis of the analysis, the grey forecast GM (1,1) and the Markov dynamic prediction model are established to simulate the change trend of the service value of the urban agricultural ecosystem in Xi 'an in the next few years. The main findings are as follows: 1. Urban agricultural land change: (1) In 2000-2013, the area of various agricultural land types in Xi' an has changed, and the type of urban agricultural land is mainly cultivated land and forest land. (2) The change of the dynamic attitude of the agricultural land type in Xi 'an in 2000-2013 is consistent with the change of the area of the agricultural land type, in which the increase of the land area is the fastest, followed by the land use of the grassland and the residents; (3) During the period 2000-2013, the utilization degree of the whole agricultural land in Xi' an is in the development period. the speed of development is fast. The time-changing characteristics of the value of the urban agricultural ecological service in Xi 'an City are: (1) The total value of the urban agricultural ecosystem services in Xi' an City in the year 2000, 2006 and 2013 is 236. 76, 108 yuan, 210. 22, 108 yuan, 21.9. 85 to 108 yuan, and the trend of increasing after the first decrease is presented, and the trend of decreasing from the south to the north is presented in the spatial distribution. (2) From the type of urban agricultural land, in 2000-2006, the contribution rate of the forest land in the value of ecosystem services was the largest. From 2006 to 2013, the total value of the forest ecosystem service value increased by 3.86%. The area of the garden area increased sharply in 2000-2013. The value of ecosystem services provided increased by 5.52%. During the 14-year period, the area of cultivated land and water was reduced, and the value of ecosystem services provided was decreased by 2.07% and 1.47%, respectively. (3) From the value of each individual ecosystem services, the value of the ecosystem services of the individual factors in the period 2000-2013 is declining, but the degree of change is different, among which the value of water conservation and waste treatment is reduced, the value of the entertainment culture and the food production is reduced to the minimum, Soil formation and protection is the largest in the value of individual ecosystem services. The spatial change of the total value of the urban agricultural ecosystem services in Xi 'an city: the relatively large area of the total value of the total value of the urban agricultural ecosystem services is concentrated in the north and the south-eastern part of the north and south-east of the city, and the reduction trend of the urban agricultural ecosystem services from 2000 to 2013 is reduced, and the period to, There is a small increase in the value of the ecological service in some parts of the county and the long-an area. mainly because of the concentrated distribution of the forest land and the garden, the development of urban agriculture in recent years, the adjustment of the agricultural structure, the establishment of a series of urban agricultural demonstration parks and the tourism agricultural sightseeing belt, the forest land and the garden area, The ecological services represented by these regions are of high value and constitute an ecological barrier to the social and economic development of Xi' an. The results of the simulation show that: (1) The value of the ecological service of the entertainment culture and the air conditioning function is relatively large from the forecast trend of the value of the single function service, and as the government continuously increases the construction of the urban agricultural demonstration park, various demonstration parks are formed. The area of the pollution-free vegetable production base and the sightseeing park, the forest land and the garden area will be continuously increased, and the gas regulation and the ecological system maintenance capacity provided by the garden land and the forest land will be enhanced. With the improvement of people's material consumption level, more pursuit of the enjoyment of spiritual culture and entertainment and leisure, the status of the function of entertainment and culture will be promoted. (2) From the result of the total value forecast of ecosystem services, the total value of ecosystem services is increasing, from 2013 to 2033, the annual growth of ecosystem service value is 146.9 million yuan. From 2000 to 2033, the value of ecosystem services in the cultivated land is declining, while the value of ecosystem services in the garden and the forest land is increasing, especially the value of the ecosystem services in the park is relatively obvious, from 116480,000 yuan in 2000 to 132146 million yuan in 2013. With the government's continuous encouragement and construction of the agricultural demonstration park, the value of the ecological service provided by the water body and the grassland increased slightly from 2033 to 143892 million yuan. In general, from the total value of the ecological service, it can be seen that the agricultural ecosystem in Xi 'an over the next ten years is a benign development.
【学位授予单位】：陕西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F323.22
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