天津市土地利用动态变化及预测分析

发布时间：2018-11-14 17:04

【摘要】：土地利用变化一直都是各个国家的研究的热门与焦点问题。区域LUCC(土地利用/覆被变化,Land-Use and Land-Cover Change)研究更是对于区域土地资源有效和合理运用、区域生态环境的改变以及日益严重的城市问题有着重大的理论意义和现实意义。本文选取天津市为研究区,通过对2000年、2008年和2016年三期土地利用现状的获取,对天津市2000-2016年间的土地利用空间格局的动态演变进行了相关的研究和分析,同时采用景观生态学等理论知识,探讨了天津市土地利用格局在人类活动的影像下的土地利用景观格局的演变特征及其动态变化,针对动态变化信息出现的原因,选取了7个自然因素和2个社会经济因素,运用了二元Logistic回归方法,分析和研究了天津市各个地类土地利用变化的驱动力及驱动模型,并以此建立了CLUE-S模型,对天津市2020年的土地利用状况进行了模拟以及分析等工作。本研究在一定程度上对天津市的土地利用规划提供了可靠的科学依据,并对其他区域类似的LUCC研究提供了一些参考价值。本文的研究成果主要有以下几点:(1)对天津市2000年-2016年土地利用动态变化及其演变特征进行了研究分析,通过运用土地动态度、土地转移矩阵、土地利用程度综合指数等方法,得出天津市2000年-2016年变化最明显的地类为建设用地、其他用地和耕地。(2)对天津市2000年-2016年土地利用景观演变进行了分析和研究。通过三期土地选取景观破碎化、形状、多样性等指数,得出天津市耕地和建设用地景观的优势斑块明显,由于在研究区内耕地和建设用地景观区域呈现破碎化和多样化状态,也导致整个天津市景观格局趋于多样化和破碎化。(3)构建了天津市土地利用变化信息的驱动模型。通过针对不同地类建立的二元logistic回归模型,发现天津市土地利用状况所受影响程度中自然因子大于社会经济因子,且不同地类的分布状况受到不同的驱动因子驱动。(4)针对天津市现状土地利用数据,利用CLUE-S模型模拟了天津市2020年土地利用空间分布以及空间格局,为天津市土地利用规划提出了有效的建议。
[Abstract]:Land use change has always been a hot and focus issue in various countries. Regional LUCC (land use / cover change, Land-Use and Land-Cover Change) research is more effective and rational use of regional land resources. The change of regional ecological environment and the increasingly serious urban problems have great theoretical and practical significance. In this paper, Tianjin is selected as the research area. Through the acquisition of the present situation of land use in 2000, 2008 and 2016, the dynamic evolution of spatial pattern of land use in Tianjin from 2000 to 2016 is studied and analyzed. At the same time, based on the theory of landscape ecology, this paper discusses the evolvement characteristics and dynamic changes of land use landscape pattern in Tianjin under the image of human activities, and aims at the reasons of the dynamic change information. In this paper, 7 natural factors and 2 social and economic factors are selected, and the driving force and driving model of land use change in Tianjin are analyzed and studied by using the dual Logistic regression method, and the CLUE-S model is established. The land use status in Tianjin in 2020 was simulated and analyzed. To a certain extent, this study provides a reliable scientific basis for land use planning in Tianjin, and provides some reference value for similar LUCC studies in other regions. The main research results of this paper are as follows: (1) the dynamic change of land use and its evolution characteristics in Tianjin from 2000 to 2016 are studied and analyzed. By using the land dynamic degree, land transfer matrix, By means of the comprehensive index of land use degree, it is concluded that the most obvious change in Tianjin from 2000 to 2016 is construction land, other land use and cultivated land. (2) the landscape evolution of land use in Tianjin from 2000 to 2016 is analyzed and studied. Through the index of landscape fragmentation, shape and diversity, the dominant patches of cultivated land and construction land landscape in Tianjin are obvious, because of the fragmentation and diversification of cultivated land and construction land landscape in the study area. It also leads to the diversification and fragmentation of the landscape pattern in Tianjin. (3) the driving model of land use change information in Tianjin is constructed. Based on the binary logistic regression model for different land types, it is found that the natural factors in the impact degree of land use in Tianjin are greater than the social economic factors. The distribution of different land types is driven by different driving factors. (4) according to the current land use data in Tianjin, the spatial distribution and spatial pattern of land use in Tianjin in 2020 are simulated by using CLUE-S model. Some effective suggestions are put forward for the land use planning of Tianjin.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F301.2

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