社交网络上谣言传播建模仿真与抑制策略研究

发布时间：2018-09-11 05:54

【摘要】：随着我国互联网技术的发展和网民规模的扩大,使得社交网络上信息传播具备了一些新特性如交互性强、传播速度快、虚拟性强等,导致网络中大量的虚假信息泛滥,造谣和传谣也日渐成为一种常态化的舆论运动,并在微博等社交网络平台上被叠加和放大,导致一个接一个的谣言冲击波出现,不利于事态的发展,如果任由谣言继续发展,很有可能导致现实中人心不稳、社会动荡不安。因此,揭露谣言在网络中传播的规律及特性,通过对比仿真各参数对谣言传播的影响,以此提出更加科学的抑制谣言传播的策略,并对谣言传播效能进行客观合理评价,实时监控谣言的发展动态和可能造成的后果,这些问题的解决不仅可以完善网络谣言辟谣机理与传播效能研究,还可以有效地控制谣言扩散和减轻谣言带来的经济损失和社会危害,具有重大的理论和现实意义。本文进行的创新性工作如下:1.本文基于经典的谣言传播模型,通过加入辟谣者这一类人群建立了改进的谣言传播模型,即SIOR模型,并通过对比仿真经典SIR模型和改进的SIOR模型,得出改进的模型可以更好的模拟谣言传播过程。2.本文还围绕构建谣言的传播效能评价体系及其权重确定展开相关工作,参照前人对谣言传播效能评价指标体系研究的基础上,根据不同类型的谣言影响不同,按照谣言对个人、对机构企业、对政府影响分别构建评价指标体系和指标量化,让评价体系更合理、更符合实际情况,并符合一致性检验要求。研究得出的主要结论有:1.经过研究分析,本文改进的SIOR谣言传播模型对谣言传播规模和时间具有一定的抑制作用,另外对谣言传播过程中的各影响参数都一一进行了仿真分析,得出各参数对谣言传播过程中各类人群密度的影响,结合分析结果具体提出了一些抑制谣言传播的策略。2.针对谣言对象的不同分别从个人、机构和政府三个方面选个3个不同的案例,分析其谣言传播效能情况,确定各个谣言传播最终的影响程度,根据分析结果形成预警级别,提出相应的抑制谣言传播策略。
[Abstract]:With the development of Internet technology and the expansion of the scale of Internet users, the social network information dissemination has some new features such as strong interaction, fast transmission speed, strong virtual and so on, resulting in a large number of false information in the network flooding. Rumors and rumour spreading have also become a regular public opinion movement, and have been superimposed and amplified on social network platforms such as Weibo, resulting in one rumor after another, which is not conducive to the development of the situation. If rumors are allowed to continue to develop, It is likely to lead to instability and social unrest in reality. Therefore, by exposing the rules and characteristics of rumor spread in the network, comparing the influence of simulation parameters on rumor propagation, the author puts forward more scientific strategies to suppress rumor propagation, and evaluates the rumor propagation effectiveness objectively and reasonably. Real-time monitoring of the development of rumors and possible consequences, these problems can not only improve the mechanism of rumour refuting and dissemination of the effectiveness of the study. It can also effectively control the spread of rumors and reduce the economic losses and social harm caused by rumors, which has great theoretical and practical significance. The innovative work of this paper is as follows: 1. Based on the classical rumour propagation model, an improved rumour propagation model, SIOR model, is established by adding the rumour disclaimer, and the classical SIR model and the improved SIOR model are compared and simulated. The improved model can better simulate the spread of rumors. 2. Based on the previous research on the evaluation index system of rumor communication effectiveness, according to different types of rumors, according to the influence of rumor, according to the rumor to the individual, this paper also carries out the relevant work around the construction of rumor communication effectiveness evaluation system and its weight. In order to make the evaluation system more reasonable, more in line with the actual situation, and accord with the requirements of consistency test, the evaluation index system and the quantitative evaluation index system should be set up for the institutional enterprises and the government respectively. The main conclusions of the study were: 1: 1. Through the research and analysis, the improved SIOR rumor propagation model has a certain inhibitory effect on the scale and time of rumor propagation. In addition, the influence parameters in the process of rumor propagation are simulated and analyzed one by one. The effects of various parameters on the population density in the process of rumor propagation are obtained, and some strategies to suppress the spread of rumors are put forward in combination with the analysis results. According to the different target of rumor, we choose three different cases from three aspects of individual, institution and government, analyze the effectiveness of rumor communication, determine the final influence degree of each rumor, and form a warning level according to the analysis result. Put forward the corresponding strategy to suppress the spread of rumors.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：G206

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