骚扰阿蚊扩散种群动态及适生区分析

发布时间：2018-03-09 00:26

本文选题：媒介生物　切入点：生物入侵　出处：《中国血吸虫病防治杂志》2016年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：目的了解骚扰阿蚊(Armigeres subalbatus)在我国的扩散趋势及种群变化,同时预测其潜在适生区。方法野外调查获得标本,查对馆藏标本相关记录,结合文献报道分析骚扰阿蚊扩散及种群动态趋势。整理骚扰阿蚊分布记录,结合20个环境相关变量,建立生态小生境模型,比较其潜在适生区的变化。通过ROC曲线分析检验模型准确性,利用刀切法逐一分析环境变量贡献值。结果野外调查在山东潍坊及威海地区发现骚扰阿蚊新分布点。结合文献及馆藏标本分析发现该物种正逐渐向古北界华北区扩散,目前已接近北纬42°地区,部分地区种群已逐渐发展为区域主要物种。本研究收集并整理了骚扰阿蚊相关资料,共获得294个分布记录。研究以2000年为时间分隔,运用Maxent软件分别构建了2000年和2016年的分布预测模型,发现2016年的预测分布范围较2000年已明显向北推移,即骚扰阿蚊的潜在适生区呈向北扩大的趋势。模型检验ROC分析结果显示两个模型AUC值分别为0.980和0.982,模型可信度极高。刀切法分析结果表明最暖季度平均湿度、最湿月份湿度和最湿季度湿度对预测骚扰阿蚊的分布具有重要影响。结论骚扰阿蚊种群分布向北逐渐扩散,气候变暖可能是造成扩散的原因。该物种的扩散一定程度影响当地蚊种组成,同时可能会增加部分蚊媒疾病传播的风险。
[Abstract]:Objective to investigate the diffusion trend and population change of Armigeres subalbatus in China, and to predict its potential suitable area. The spread and population dynamics of Anopheles albopictus were analyzed based on the literature reports. The distribution records of Anopheles albopictus were collected and 20 environmental variables were used to establish ecological niche model. The accuracy of the model was verified by ROC curve analysis. Results A new distribution point of Anopheles albopictus was found in Weifang and Weihai areas of Shandong Province. Combined with literature and collection analysis, it was found that the species was gradually spreading to North China. At present, the area of latitude 42 掳N has been approached, and some areas have gradually developed into the main species in the region. In this study, 294 records of distribution were collected and collated. The study was separated by 2000. The distribution prediction models of 2000 and 2016 were constructed by using Maxent software respectively. It was found that the forecast distribution range of 2016 was significantly northward than that of 2016. The results of ROC analysis showed that the AUC values of the two models were 0.980 and 0.982respectively, and the reliability of the models was very high. The wetter month humidity and the west-season humidity have important influence on forecasting the distribution of Anopheles albopictus. Conclusion the population distribution of Anopheles albopictus spread northward. Global warming may be the cause of the spread, which affects the composition of local mosquitoes to some extent and may increase the risk of some mosquito-borne diseases.
【作者单位】：中国疾病预防控制中心寄生虫病预防控制所卫生部寄生虫病原与媒介生物学重点实验室科技部国家级热带病国际联合研究中心世界卫生组织热带病合作中心;
【基金】：中国CDC寄生虫病预防控制所防治技术储备科研基金(CB.16003)
【分类号】：R384.1

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