数学模型在血吸虫病监测数据中的应用

发布时间：2018-01-11 02:08

本文关键词：数学模型在血吸虫病监测数据中的应用　出处：《四川大学》2006年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：数学模型在血吸虫病监测数据中的应用目的了解四川省血吸虫病监测点血吸虫病的流行趋势、流行现状及防治措施的效果，发现血吸虫病防治过程中的不足及将来防治工作的重点，形成良好的信息反馈，为现场血吸虫病防治工作服务，为制定相关的政策及宏观规划提供参考，也为相关研究提供方法学的借鉴。方法利用2000～2004年四川省血吸虫病监测点数据，对血吸虫病的流行趋势和流行现状进行描述，并反映出防治措施的效果；计算血吸虫病传播动力学指标，进一步揭示血吸虫病的流行特征和不同监测点的流行特点；拟合血吸虫卵计量变异的随机模型，估计“实际”的感染率；探讨感染度的计算方法，并对各年各监测点的感染度进行比较。结果各监测点血吸虫病感染率有所波动，但整体呈下降趋势，现各监测点感染率较稳定，处在较难进一步下降的状态(2004年西昌为9.04％，蒲江为0.95％，丹棱为3.19％，广汉为1.09％)，近几年防治效果较明显；传播动力学指标显示各监测点传播虽在进行，，但已处于较低的水平，另各监测点的指标值略有差别，提示各监测点有不同的防治重点；模型估计的“实际”感染率远高于由监测数据计算的感染率，将来的血防工作仍任重而道远；加权感染度界于非零感染度(或纯感染度)与“±1”感染度之间，各年各监测点的人群感染度(纯感染度和全感染度)差异均具有统计学意义，且2000与2001年人群感染度以西昌监测点为最高，2002年丹棱监测点最高，2003年蒲江监测点最高，2004年仍以西昌监测点为最高。结论从五年的监测情况看，各监测点疫情得到进一步的控制，血防效果较明显，通过统计描述及对反映血吸虫病流行程度的主要指标感染率和感染度的
[Abstract]:Application of mathematical model in schistosomiasis surveillance data Objective to understand the epidemic trend of schistosomiasis in Sichuan schistosomiasis surveillance points, the current situation of schistosomiasis epidemic and the effect of prevention and control measures, and to find out the deficiency in the process of schistosomiasis control and the key points of future prevention and control. To form good information feedback, to serve for the prevention and control of schistosomiasis in the field, to provide reference for the formulation of relevant policies and macro planning, and to provide methodological reference for related research. Methods based on the data of schistosomiasis surveillance in Sichuan Province from 2000 to 2004, the epidemic trend and current situation of schistosomiasis were described, and the effect of control measures was reflected. The transmission dynamics of schistosomiasis was calculated to reveal the epidemic characteristics of schistosomiasis and the epidemic characteristics of different surveillance sites. Fitting the random model of the egg metrological variation of Schistosoma japonicum to estimate the "actual" infection rate; The calculation method of infection degree was discussed, and the infection degree of each year was compared. Results the infection rate of schistosomiasis fluctuated in all monitoring points, but the overall trend was decreasing, and the infection rate of schistosomiasis was stable. In 2004, Xichang was 9.04, Pujiang was 0.955, Danling was 3.19m, Guanghan was 1.09m, the control effect was obvious in recent years. The transmission dynamics index shows that the propagation of each monitoring point is in a low level, and the index values of the other monitoring points are slightly different, indicating that each monitoring point has different prevention and control emphases. The "actual" infection rate estimated by the model is much higher than the infection rate calculated by the monitoring data. The weighted degree of infection was between non-zero infection (or pure infection) and "卤1" infection. The population infection degree (pure infection degree and total infection degree) had statistical significance in each year. In 2000 and 2001, the infection rate was highest in Xichang, Danling on 2002, Pujiang on 2003 and Xichang on 2003. Conclusion from the monitoring situation of five years, the epidemic situation of each surveillance point has been further controlled, and the effect of blood control is obvious. The infection rate and infection degree of schistosomiasis were analyzed by statistical description and the main index reflecting the prevalence of schistosomiasis.
【学位授予单位】：四川大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2006
【分类号】：R181.8;R311

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