三种定量分析方法在疾病防治中的应用研究

发布时间：2018-03-03 12:47

本文选题：疾病防治　切入点：马尔可夫链　出处：《重庆师范大学》2007年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】： 随着自然环境的变化和科学技术的飞速发展，许多新的疾病在不断增加，它们越来越威胁人类的生存，因此疾病防治在医疗卫生工作中尤为显得突出和紧迫。应用数学知识对疾病防治进行定量分析，对反映疾病的变化趋势、提高疾病的防治技术和帮助各级政府科学决策都有着极其重要的意义和不可忽视的作用。本文利用马尔可夫链、灰色理论以及路径分析三种数学方法，针对疾病防治中相关数据的不同特点，从不同角度进行定量研究，更有效地挖掘出各种数据资料蕴涵的信息，丰富了疾病防治的定量分析方法，为临床医学科技工作者提供了一些具有参考价值的信息。具体地，本文进行了如下系列研究： 1．利用马尔可夫链方法对大庆市1980～1999年流行性脑脊髓膜炎病死率数据进行定量分析，预测出未来年份的病死率，从而有效地挖掘出疾病的流行特征，为该疾病的卫生防疫工作提供了科学依据。 2．利用灰色系统理论中的灰色关联分析、GM(1，，1)模型、GM(1，n)模型、灰色灾变预测模型等方法，分别对角膜碱烧伤血管形成因素的实验数据、1984～1997年流行性出血热监测区流行性出血热(EHF)的年发病率、大庆市1980～1999年流行性脑脊髓膜炎病死率数据、某医院1997～2001年间各月产妇分娩人数数据等资料进行了关联分析，灾变预测和季节变动分析。结果表明，将灰色系统理论应用于疾病防治的定量分析可以得到比传统数据分析方法更深刻和更有意义的一些结果，从而可为医学科技工作者提供更多具有参考价值的信息。 3．利用路径分析的方法，对某医院1998-2002年住院人次及有关指标进行定量分析，找出了影响住院人次的直接因素和间接因素，建立了路径图，并求出各影响因素对住院人次的路径作用系数，构建了影响住院人次因素的因果关系模型，可为医院管理的早期干预提供定量参考依据。
[Abstract]:With the change of natural environment and the rapid development of science and technology, many new diseases are increasing, and they threaten the survival of mankind more and more. Therefore, disease prevention and treatment is particularly prominent and urgent in medical and health work. The quantitative analysis of disease prevention and treatment is carried out by applying mathematical knowledge, and the change trend of disease is reflected. It is very important and important to improve the technology of disease prevention and control and to help the governments at all levels to make scientific decisions. In this paper, three mathematical methods, Markov chain, grey theory and path analysis, are used to quantitatively study the related data in disease prevention and treatment from different angles, so as to mine the information contained in various data more effectively. It enriches the quantitative analysis methods of disease prevention and control, and provides some valuable information for clinical medical science and technology workers. Specifically, this paper has carried out the following series of studies:. 1. The mortality data of epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis in Daqing City from 1980 to 1999 were quantitatively analyzed by Markov chain method. The mortality of epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis in the future was predicted, and the epidemic characteristics of the disease were effectively excavated. It provides a scientific basis for the health and epidemic prevention of the disease. 2. Using the grey relation analysis in the grey system theory, the GM1 / 1) model and the grey disaster prediction model, etc. The annual incidence of epidemic hemorrhagic fever (EHF) in the surveillance area of epidemic hemorrhagic fever from 1984 to 1997 and the fatality rate of epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis from 1980 to 1999 in Daqing City were analyzed. Correlation analysis, disaster prediction and seasonal variation analysis were carried out on the data of the number of births per month in a hospital from 1997 to 2001. The results show that, Applying the grey system theory to the quantitative analysis of disease prevention and treatment, we can get some more profound and meaningful results than the traditional data analysis method, thus providing more valuable information for medical science and technology workers. 3. By using the method of path analysis, the paper makes quantitative analysis on the number of hospitalizations and related indexes in a certain hospital from 1998 to 2002, finds out the direct and indirect factors that affect the number of hospitalizations, and establishes the path map. The path-action coefficient of the influencing factors on the number of hospital attendances was calculated, and the causality model of the factors was constructed, which can provide a quantitative reference for the early intervention of hospital management.
【学位授予单位】：重庆师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2007
【分类号】：R311

【引证文献】