炎症因子在手足口病重症和重症天数判断中的应用
发布时间：2019-03-22 07:00
【摘要】：目的研究血清炎症因子水平在重症手足口病(HFMD)及手足口病患者重症天数判断中的作用。方法使用受试者工作曲线(ROC曲线)分析炎症因子水平与重症手足口病关系,并使用曲线下面积(AUC)评价判别效果。采用分类和回归树(CART)模型和支持向量机(SVM)模型对手足口病患者重症天数进行判断,并使用交叉验证评价模型泛化能力。结果 ROC曲线分析结果表明白细胞介素-4(IL-4)对于判断轻重症的效果最好(AUC:0.989),IL-6、肿瘤坏死因子-α(TNF-α)、IL-10、干扰素-γ(INF-γ)和IL-17的效果依次递减,AUC值分别为0.933、0.898、0.882、0.853和0.523。CART模型和SVM模型对于手足口病患者重症天数判断的一致率分别为87.69%和95.38%,进行5折交叉验证得到模型的一致率分别为77.49%和81.40%。结论使用血清炎症因子水平对于手足口病重症有很好的判别效果,且对于判断手足口病患者重症天数也有较好的效果。
[Abstract]:Objective to study the role of serum inflammatory factors in severe hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) and severe days of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD). Methods the relationship between inflammatory factors and severe hand, foot and mouth disease was analyzed by receiver operating curve (ROC curve), and the discriminant effect was evaluated by area (AUC) under the curve. Classification and regression tree (CART) model and support vector machine (SVM) model were used to judge severe days in patients with foot-mouth disease, and cross-validation was used to evaluate the generalization ability of the model. Results the results of ROC curve analysis showed that interleukin-4 (IL-4) had the best effect on judging mild and severe cases (AUC:0.989), IL-6, tumor necrosis factor-伪 (TNF- 伪), IL-10,. The effect of interferon-纬 (INF- 纬) and IL-17 decreased in turn. The AUC values were 0.933, 0.898, 0.882, respectively. The concordance rates of 0.853 with 0.523.CART model and SVM model were 87.69% and 95.38% for severe days of hand, foot and mouth disease, respectively. The consistency rate of the model is 77.49% and 81.40% respectively by 50% discount cross-validation. Conclusion the use of serum inflammatory factors has a good discriminating effect on the severe cases of hand, foot and mouth disease, and also has a good effect on judging the severe days of the patients with hand, foot and mouth disease.
【作者单位】： 郑州大学公共卫生学院;新乡医学院公共卫生学院;郑州市儿童医院感染性疾病科;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(No.81573205,81172740)
【分类号】：R725.1
本文编号：2445371
[Abstract]:Objective to study the role of serum inflammatory factors in severe hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) and severe days of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD). Methods the relationship between inflammatory factors and severe hand, foot and mouth disease was analyzed by receiver operating curve (ROC curve), and the discriminant effect was evaluated by area (AUC) under the curve. Classification and regression tree (CART) model and support vector machine (SVM) model were used to judge severe days in patients with foot-mouth disease, and cross-validation was used to evaluate the generalization ability of the model. Results the results of ROC curve analysis showed that interleukin-4 (IL-4) had the best effect on judging mild and severe cases (AUC:0.989), IL-6, tumor necrosis factor-伪 (TNF- 伪), IL-10,. The effect of interferon-纬 (INF- 纬) and IL-17 decreased in turn. The AUC values were 0.933, 0.898, 0.882, respectively. The concordance rates of 0.853 with 0.523.CART model and SVM model were 87.69% and 95.38% for severe days of hand, foot and mouth disease, respectively. The consistency rate of the model is 77.49% and 81.40% respectively by 50% discount cross-validation. Conclusion the use of serum inflammatory factors has a good discriminating effect on the severe cases of hand, foot and mouth disease, and also has a good effect on judging the severe days of the patients with hand, foot and mouth disease.
【作者单位】： 郑州大学公共卫生学院;新乡医学院公共卫生学院;郑州市儿童医院感染性疾病科;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(No.81573205,81172740)
【分类号】：R725.1
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