中国子宫颈癌1987-2014年死亡趋势的Joinpoint回归分析

发布时间：2018-02-28 05:23

  本文关键词： 子宫颈癌 死亡率 Joinpoint回归 趋势　出处：《中国癌症杂志》2017年08期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：背景与目的:子宫颈癌是女性生殖系统最常见的恶性肿瘤之一,严重威胁着女性的健康。密切掌握中国女性子宫颈癌死亡现况及近30年间的变化趋势,为子宫颈癌的防控策略提供科学依据。方法:汇总1987—2014年中国女性子宫颈癌死亡率数据,描述年龄标化率和截缩率的特征及趋势,利用Joinpoint回归模型估计子宫颈癌死亡率的变化趋势。结果:1987—2014年,农村女性子宫颈癌死亡率整体高于城市,城市及农村年均变化均呈现下降趋势,且农村平均下降速度显著快于城市,城市平均每年下降1.79%(P0.01),农村平均每年下降3.94%(P0.01)。城乡差距逐渐减小,2010年之后城市截缩率超过农村。城市30~54岁女性子宫颈癌死亡率随年份上升,城市高龄女性及农村30~54岁女性随年份下降。结论:1987—2014年,中国女性子宫颈癌死亡情况整体好转,但城市中青年人群持续上升,城乡高龄人群在近10年也出现明显的上升趋势。
[Abstract]:Background & objective: cervical cancer is one of the most common malignant tumors in the female reproductive system, which is a serious threat to the health of women. Methods: the mortality data of cervical cancer in China from 1987 to 2014 were collected, and the characteristics and trends of age standardized rate and truncation rate were described. Joinpoint regression model was used to estimate the trend of cervical cancer mortality. Results from 1987 to 2014, the mortality rate of cervical cancer in rural women was higher than that in urban areas, and the average annual changes in urban and rural areas showed a decreasing trend. The average rate of decline in rural areas was significantly faster than that in urban areas. The average annual decline of 1.79g / a in urban areas and 3.94 / year in rural areas was significantly faster than that in urban areas. The gap between urban and rural areas gradually decreased, and after 2010, the rate of contraction in urban areas was higher than that in rural areas. The mortality rate of cervical cancer in women aged 30 to 54 in urban areas increased with the year. Conclusion from 1987 to 2014, the death rate of cervical cancer among Chinese women has improved overall, but the number of middle-aged and young people in urban areas has continued to rise, and the elderly in urban and rural areas have also shown an obvious upward trend in the past 10 years.
【作者单位】： 武汉大学健康学院流行病与卫生统计学系;武汉大学全球健康研究中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(81641123)
【分类号】：R737.33
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本文编号：1545931