广西孕产妇死亡率变化趋势分析及预测研究

发布时间：2018-06-25 19:17

本文选题：孕妇 + 产妇死亡率　；参考：《中华疾病控制杂志》2017年09期

【摘要】：目的分析广西2006-2015年孕产妇死亡率及变化速率,预测其发展趋势,为科学制定相关策略和措施提供理论依据。方法利用GM(1,1)灰色预测模型建立微分动态方程模拟广西2006-2015年孕产妇死亡率,判断其动态趋势,并外延预测2016-2018年广西孕产妇死亡率。结果孕产妇死亡率灰色GM(1,1)预测模型为:x~((1))(k+1)=-322.242e~(-0.079k)+349.402(C=0.187,P=1.000);孕产妇死亡率呈下降趋势;灰色预测模型预测符合率90%;下降趋势变化速率逐渐降低,2014年以来趋于平稳;预测2016-2018年广西孕产妇死亡率分别为12.04/10万、11.12/10万和10.27/10万。结论近十年广西孕产妇死亡率下降态势呈现"先快速后平稳"的趋势,预测2016-2018年广西孕产妇死亡率将持续稳步降低。
[Abstract]:Objective to analyze the maternal mortality rate and its changing rate in Guangxi from 2006 to 2015, and to forecast its development trend, and to provide theoretical basis for the scientific formulation of relevant strategies and measures. Methods the differential dynamic equation was established to simulate the maternal mortality rate in Guangxi from 2006 to 2015 by using GM (1 / 1) grey prediction model. The dynamic trend of maternal mortality was judged and the maternal mortality rate was predicted by extension from 2016 to 2018 in Guangxi. Results the grey GM (1K1) prediction model of maternal mortality was: 1% x ~ (1) (1) (k 1) -322.242 e- 0.079 k (C0. 187 P0. 000), the maternal mortality rate showed a downward trend, the prediction coincidence rate of the grey forecast model was 90%, the decreasing trend rate gradually decreased, and the change rate of decline trend gradually decreased, and tended to be stable since 2014. The maternal mortality rate in Guangxi is predicted to be 12.04 / 100,000 or 11.12 / 100, 000 and 10.27 / 100, 000, respectively, between 2016 and 2018. Conclusion the decreasing trend of maternal mortality in Guangxi in the past ten years is "fast first, then stable", and it is predicted that the maternal mortality rate in Guangxi will continue to decrease steadily from 2016 to 2018.
【作者单位】：广西科技大学第一附属医院教学科研部;广西医科大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学教研室;广西壮族自治区妇幼保健院保健部;
【分类号】：R714.66

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