农村和城镇精神分裂症患者住院费用的时间序列分析

发布时间：2019-06-20 10:30

【摘要】：目的:分析农村和城镇精神分裂症患者的住院费用及其趋势,为进一步完善农村和城镇患者的补偿政策、减轻患者的经济压力提供参考依据。方法:收集某省精神专科医院2006—2012年住院精神分裂症患者的资料,对住院情况进行统计描述,并采用时间序列自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)模型对农村和城镇患者的人均住院费用进行短期预测。结果:7年来农村精神分裂症住院人数增长了75.10%,城镇为93.27%;城镇患者的人均住院天数明显高于农村患者的人均住院天数;农村精神分裂症患者的人均住院费用增长了194.76%,城镇增长了248.72%。农村患者住院费用的预测模型为ARIMA(1,2,1),城镇为ARIMA(1,1,0);2013年农村和城镇患者人均住院费用基本保持先前的上升趋势。结论 :农村和城镇住院精神分裂症患者不断增加,住院费用不断上升,农村患者的经济压力比较大,增加对患者的经济补偿成为必然。
[Abstract]:Objective: To analyze the hospitalization cost and the trend of the patients with schizophrenia in the rural and urban areas, and to provide the reference for the further improvement of the compensation policy of the patients in the rural and urban areas, and to reduce the economic pressure of the patients. Methods: The data of the inpatients with schizophrenia in 2006-2012 were collected from a mental specialist hospital in a province, and a statistical description was made on the hospitalization, and the time-series self-regressive moving average model (ARIMA) model was used to forecast the average hospitalization expenses of the residents in the rural and urban areas. Results: In the past seven years, the number of inpatients in rural schizophrenia increased by 75.10% and the town was 93.27%; the number of hospitalization days per person in the town was significantly higher than that in the rural patients; the per-capita hospitalization cost of the patients with schizophrenia increased by 194.76%, and the town increased by 248.72%. The model of hospitalization cost of the rural patients is ARIMA (1,2,1), the town is ARIMA (1,1,0), and the per-capita hospitalization expense in the rural and urban residents in 2013 basically maintains the previous upward trend. Conclusion: The patients with schizophrenia in rural and urban areas have been increasing, and the cost of hospitalization is increasing. The economic pressure of the patients in the rural areas is relatively large, and the economic compensation of the patients becomes inevitable.
【作者单位】：山东大学卫生管理与政策研究中心;山东省精神卫生中心;山东省卫生厅;
【分类号】：R749.3

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