2010-2015年江苏省流感流行特征分析和预警阈值确定的探讨

发布时间：2018-03-13 13:09

  本文选题：流感流行　切入点：流感样病例监测　出处：《现代预防医学》2017年10期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：目的描述2009年流感大流行后江苏省流感样病例的流行特征和病原学变化规律,探索江苏省流感流行金标准的确定方法,为流感流行设立科学的预警阈值提供依据。方法以2010-2015年的流感哨点医院监测和网络实验室数据为基础,采用描述性的方法分析江苏省2009年流感大流行后的流感流行特征;采用流感病毒最高阳性检出率的30%(20%~40%)作为流感流行高峰来临的起始点的阈值,探索适合江苏省流感流行的金标准。结果流感病毒阳性率和流感样病例变化趋势基本一致,一年有冬春季和夏季2个检出高峰;在流感病毒各亚型演变规律方面,2009年以后,流感毒株主要为季H3,新甲H1和B型(Yamagata系和Victoria系)共同循环,夏季高峰以甲型H3流行为主,冬季高峰B型和甲型(新甲H1和/或甲型H3)共同流行。结论 2009年流感大流行后,江苏省循环毒株以甲型H3N2,新甲H1N1和B型为主,新甲H1N1总体流行强度不高;江苏省采用历史基线2年的核酸阳性率高值中位数的30%作为判定流感流行的阈值可获得相对较好的应用价值。
[Abstract]:Objective to describe the epidemiological characteristics and etiological changes of influenza like cases in Jiangsu Province after the influenza pandemic in 2009 and to explore the method of determining the gold standard for influenza epidemic in Jiangsu Province. Methods based on the data of influenza sentinel hospital surveillance and network laboratory from 2010 to 2015, the characteristics of influenza epidemic after the influenza epidemic in Jiangsu Province in 2009 were analyzed by descriptive method. Using 30% of the highest positive rate of influenza virus as the threshold for the onset of the influenza epidemic peak, and exploring the gold standard suitable for influenza epidemic in Jiangsu Province, the results showed that the positive rate of influenza virus was basically the same as the trend of influenza like cases. There were two detected peaks in winter, spring and summer. After 2009, the influenza virus strains were mainly seasonal H3, new H1 and B type Yamagata strain and Victoria strain), and the summer peak was mainly A H3 epidemic. Conclusion after the influenza pandemic in 2009, the circulating strains in Jiangsu Province were mainly A H 3N 2, A H1N1 and B, and the overall epidemic intensity of new A H1N1 was not high. In Jiangsu Province, 30% of the median nucleic acid positive rate of 2 years' historical baseline was used as the threshold to determine influenza epidemic.
【作者单位】： 江苏省疾病预防控制中心急性传染病防制所;
【基金】：国家卫生计生委科研基金(W201303) 重大新发传染病综合防控科技示范工程(BE2015714) 江苏省临床医学科技专项(BL2014081) 江苏省自然科学基金(BK20151595)
【分类号】：R181.3;R511.7
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本文编号：1606516