动态因子模型在安徽省乙类传染病发病情况分析中的应用

发布时间：2018-06-21 09:00

本文选题：乙类传染病 + 时间序列　；参考：《中国卫生统计》2017年06期

【摘要】：目的采用动态因子模型分析安徽省近11年常见乙类传染病发病率,为传染病的防控工作提供参考。方法用Stata 11.0软件基于安徽省2004年1月到2014年12月乙类传染病的发病率建立动态因子模型,通过提取的共同因子来了解传染病发病率的动态趋势。结果 2004-2014年安徽省发病率最高的5种乙类传染病依次是肺结核、乙肝、痢疾、疟疾和梅毒,其年均发病率(/10万)分别为73.14,53.79,21.42,16.33和15.25。消化道传染病、呼吸道传染病和虫媒传染病的发病率总体呈下降趋势,模型中消化道传染病共同因子一阶和二阶滞后参数为1.620(P0.001)和-0.882(P0.001),呼吸道传染病共同因子一阶和二阶滞后参数为1.242(P0.001)和-0.494(P0.001),虫媒传染病共同因子一阶滞后参数为0.881(P0.001)。经体液传播乙类传染病发病波动较大且呈上升趋势,其共同因子一阶和二阶滞后参数为-1.081(P0.001)和-0.440(P=0.008)。结论应重点加强对经体液传播乙类传染病的防控力度,动态因子模型可用于乙类传染病的综合分析。
[Abstract]:Objective to analyze the incidence of class B infectious diseases in Anhui province in recent 11 years by using dynamic factor model, and to provide reference for the prevention and control of infectious diseases. Methods Stata 11.0 software was used to establish a dynamic factor model based on the incidence of class B infectious diseases in Anhui Province from January 2004 to December 2014. The common factors were extracted to understand the dynamic trend of the incidence of infectious diseases. Results from 2004 to 2014, tuberculosis, hepatitis B, dysentery, malaria and syphilis were the five most common infectious diseases in Anhui Province, and the average annual incidence rates were 73.14, 53.79, 21.42, 16.33 and 15.25, respectively. The incidence of digestive tract infectious diseases, respiratory infectious diseases and insect-borne infectious diseases generally showed a downward trend. In the model, the first-order and second-order lag parameters of common factors of digestive tract infectious diseases were 1.620 (P 0.001) and -0.882n (P 0.001), the first and second order lag parameters of respiratory infectious diseases were 1.242n (0.001) and -0.494n (P 0.001), and the first-order lag parameters of common factors of insect-borne infectious diseases were 0.881P 0.001. The incidence of type B infectious diseases transmitted by body fluid fluctuated greatly and showed an upward trend. The common factors of the first and second order lag parameters were -1.081 (P0.001) and -0.440 (P0. 008). Conclusion it is important to strengthen the prevention and control of class B infectious diseases transmitted by body fluid, and the dynamic factor model can be used for the comprehensive analysis of class B infectious diseases.
【作者单位】：安徽医科大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(11526034) 安徽省重大自身免疫性疾病重点实验室 2016年安徽省质量工程教学研究重大项目(2016jyxm0378)
【分类号】：R181.3

【相似文献】