面向重大传染病疫情的应急物资跨区域协同调配动力学研究——以长三角联防联控抗甲型H1N1流感疫情为例
发布时间：2018-11-21 19:29
【摘要】：针对重大传染病疫情发生时跨区域协同应急需求,构建应急物资跨区域协同调配的系统动力学模型。基于传染病、物资调配和反馈机制三个子系统,分析关键因素及其因果关联,设计数据流图,并按不同受灾程度将各区域划分为轻度、中度和重度灾区,枚举可能的跨区域应急协同调配方案。以长三角联防联控甲型H1N1流感疫情为例,设置相关参数方程,对所构模型检测现实性和稳定性,且分别对关键参数影响、差异化区域特征和跨区域应急协同方案选择实施仿真分析,研究结果为科学构建跨区域应急协同体系提供有益参考。
[Abstract]:The system dynamics model of cross-regional coordinated deployment of emergency materials was established to meet the needs of cross-regional coordination of emergency materials when the epidemic situation of major infectious diseases occurred. Based on the three subsystems of infectious disease, material allocation and feedback mechanism, this paper analyzes the key factors and their causality, designs the data flow diagram, and divides the regions into mild, moderate and severe disaster areas according to the different degree of disaster. Enumerate possible cross-regional emergency coordination schemes. Taking the joint prevention and control of influenza A (H1N1) in the Yangtze River Delta as an example, the relevant parameter equations are set up to test the reality and stability of the model, and to influence the key parameters respectively. The characteristics of differentiated region and the selection and implementation of cross-regional emergency coordination scheme are simulated and analyzed. The results provide a useful reference for the scientific construction of cross-regional emergency coordination system.
【作者单位】： 南京信息工程大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71571103) 国家留学基金资助项目(201709040001) 江苏高校品牌专业建设工程资助项目 江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目
【分类号】：R181.8;R511.7
本文编号：2348059
[Abstract]:The system dynamics model of cross-regional coordinated deployment of emergency materials was established to meet the needs of cross-regional coordination of emergency materials when the epidemic situation of major infectious diseases occurred. Based on the three subsystems of infectious disease, material allocation and feedback mechanism, this paper analyzes the key factors and their causality, designs the data flow diagram, and divides the regions into mild, moderate and severe disaster areas according to the different degree of disaster. Enumerate possible cross-regional emergency coordination schemes. Taking the joint prevention and control of influenza A (H1N1) in the Yangtze River Delta as an example, the relevant parameter equations are set up to test the reality and stability of the model, and to influence the key parameters respectively. The characteristics of differentiated region and the selection and implementation of cross-regional emergency coordination scheme are simulated and analyzed. The results provide a useful reference for the scientific construction of cross-regional emergency coordination system.
【作者单位】： 南京信息工程大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71571103) 国家留学基金资助项目(201709040001) 江苏高校品牌专业建设工程资助项目 江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目
【分类号】：R181.8;R511.7
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