空间统计学方法在某市淋病疫情时空聚集性特征研究中的应用
发布时间：2018-11-14 17:57
【摘要】： 目的：了解深圳市2005～2009年淋病疫情时空聚集性特征,探讨空间统计分析方法在淋病疫情分析中的应用价值和意义,为卫生部门的淋病防控工作提供新的思路和理论依据。 方法：收集深圳市55个街道2005～2009年“疾病监测信息报告管理系统”中报告的淋病病例及各街道地理坐标,建立具有空间属性的疾病数据库,借助SaTScan、ArcGIS等专业软件,应用空间自回归、空间扫描统计等空间统计分析方法对其时空分布规律进行探索性分析。 结果：1.全局自相关分析结果显示：深圳市2005-2009年淋病年平均报告发病率存在空间自相关性(全局Moran's I=0.02,Z=2.07,全局G统计量为0.02,Z=4.02)；三维趋势分析显示,淋病发病率由西向东呈下降趋势,南北方向则为两头高,中间低；局部空间自相关分析显示：深圳西部南头街道(Local Moran's I=0.41,Z=3.72)、蛇口街道(Local Moran's I=0.31,Z=2.47)和新安街道(Local Moran'sI=0.21,Z=2.25)为淋病高发病率聚集区,深圳东部的大鹏街道(Local Moran's I=0.18,Z=2.08)和坑梓街道(Local Moran's I=0.16,Z=1.97)为低发病率聚集区。 2.单纯空间扫描分析结果显示2005年淋病高发病率聚集区为深圳西北部的松岗、公明街道,2006年为深圳西南部的南山、南头街道,2007年为松岗、公明和沙井街道,2008年为深圳西南部的南头街道,2009年为深圳西南部的南山和南头街道；单纯时间扫描分析显示：深圳2005和2007年的淋病发病聚集时间段为11-12月,2006年聚集时间段为10-11月,2008年和2009年聚集时间分别为7～9月和5～7月；时空扫描分析显示：深圳市粤海、南头、南山和沙河街道的淋病发病在2005年3-7月有聚集性(LLR=84.06,RR=2.40),南山、南头、粤海、招商和蛇口街道的淋病发病在2006年4～6月有聚集性(LLR=869.75,RR=8.87),南头、南山、粤海和新安街道的淋病发病在2007年4～6月有聚集性(LLR=645.47, RR=6.45),南头、南山、粤海、招商和蛇口街道的淋病发病在2008年4～6月有聚集性(LLR=959.05,RR=7.65),新安、西丽、南头、西乡、粤海和南山街道的淋病发病在2009年4～6月有聚集性(LLR=1157.85,RR=6.78)。 结论：以街道为基本单元的深圳市淋病病例和淋病发病率在时间、空间和时空分布上均存在聚集性。2005～2009年淋病的高发病率聚集区位于深圳西南部,低发病率聚集区位于深圳东北部。深圳市淋病病例空间聚集区主要位于西北部和西南部；淋病发病的聚集时间段有从第四季度向前推移的趋势；时空聚集特点为每年第二季度左右在深圳西南部聚集。空间自相关和空间扫描统计等空间统计方法能够用于揭示深圳市淋病疫情时空聚集性分布特征,并确定淋病防控的重点区域。
[Abstract]:Objective: to understand the spatial and temporal characteristics of gonorrhea epidemic in Shenzhen from 2005 to 2009, and to explore the application value and significance of spatial statistical analysis method in the analysis of gonorrhea epidemic situation, and to provide a new way of thinking and theoretical basis for the prevention and control of gonorrhea in health department. Methods: the geographical coordinates of gonorrhea cases reported in the disease surveillance information management system from 2005 to 2009 in 55 streets of Shenzhen were collected, and the disease database with spatial attributes was set up, and SaTScan,ArcGIS and other professional software were used. Spatial autoregressive, spatial scanning statistics and other spatial statistical analysis methods are used to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of the spatial and temporal distribution. Results: 1. The results of global autocorrelation analysis showed that there was a spatial autocorrelation between 2005 and 2009 in the average reported incidence of gonorrhea in Shenzhen City (global Moran's I0.02, ZG 2.07, global G statistics: 0.02%, ZG 4.02), and the results showed that there was a spatial autocorrelation between 2005 and 2009 in the reported incidence of gonorrhea in Shenzhen. Three-dimensional trend analysis showed that the incidence of gonorrhea decreased from west to east, and was high at both ends in the north and south, and low in the middle. Local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that (Local Moran's I (0.41), (Local Moran's (0.31) and Xin'an (Local Moran'sI=0.21,) in Nantou street, western Shenzhen, were 0.41, 0.31, and 2.47, respectively. The high incidence area of gonorrhea, the low incidence area, the high incidence area of gonorrhea, the low incidence area, the (Local Moran's I of Dapeng street in the east of Shenzhen and the (Local Moran's I ~ (0.16) ~ (1. 16) Z ~ (1. 97) of Hang Zi street. 2. The results of simple spatial scanning analysis showed that the concentrated areas of high incidence of gonorrhea in 2005 were Songgang, Gongming street in northwestern Shenzhen, Nanshan and Nantou streets in southwestern Shenzhen in 2006, Songgang, Gongming and Shajing streets in 2007. Nantou street in the southwest of Shenzhen in 2008 and Nanshan and Nantou streets in the southwest of Shenzhen in 2009; Simple time scanning analysis showed that the aggregation period of gonorrhea in Shenzhen was 11-12 months in 2005 and 2007, 10-11 months in 2006, 7-9 and 5-7 months in 2008 and 2009, respectively. Spatio-temporal scanning analysis showed that the incidence of gonorrhea in the streets of Guangdong, Nantou, Nanshan and Shahe in Shenzhen City had agglomeration (LLR=84.06,RR=2.40) in March-July 2005, Nanshan, Nantou, Yuehai, Nanshan, Nantou, Guangdong, etc. The incidence of gonorrhea in the streets of Merchants and Shekou was clustered (LLR=869.75,RR=8.87) from April to June 2006, and the gonorrhea in Nantou, Nanshan, Guangdong and Xinan streets was LLR=645.47, RR=6.45 and Nantou from April to June of 2007. The incidence of gonorrhea in Nanshan, Guangdong, Merchants and Shekou streets from April to June 2008 was LLR=959.05,RR=7.65, Xin'an, Xili, Nantou, Xixiang, The incidence of gonorrhea in the streets of Guangdong and Nanshan was LLR=1157.85,RR=6.78 from April to June 2009. Conclusion: the incidence of gonorrhea and the incidence of gonorrhea are clustered in time, space and time. The high incidence area of gonorrhea from 2005 to 2009 is located in the southwest of Shenzhen. The low incidence area is located in the northeast of Shenzhen. The spatial agglomeration area of gonorrhea cases in Shenzhen is mainly located in the northwest and southwest of China, and the agglomeration period of gonorrhea has the tendency of moving forward from the fourth quarter, and the spatio-temporal aggregation is characterized by the clustering in the southwest of Shenzhen in the second quarter of each year. Spatial autocorrelation and spatial scanning statistics can be used to reveal the spatial and temporal aggregation characteristics of gonorrhea in Shenzhen and to determine the key areas for the prevention and control of gonorrhea.
【学位授予单位】：中南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：R759.2
本文编号：2331884
[Abstract]:Objective: to understand the spatial and temporal characteristics of gonorrhea epidemic in Shenzhen from 2005 to 2009, and to explore the application value and significance of spatial statistical analysis method in the analysis of gonorrhea epidemic situation, and to provide a new way of thinking and theoretical basis for the prevention and control of gonorrhea in health department. Methods: the geographical coordinates of gonorrhea cases reported in the disease surveillance information management system from 2005 to 2009 in 55 streets of Shenzhen were collected, and the disease database with spatial attributes was set up, and SaTScan,ArcGIS and other professional software were used. Spatial autoregressive, spatial scanning statistics and other spatial statistical analysis methods are used to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of the spatial and temporal distribution. Results: 1. The results of global autocorrelation analysis showed that there was a spatial autocorrelation between 2005 and 2009 in the average reported incidence of gonorrhea in Shenzhen City (global Moran's I0.02, ZG 2.07, global G statistics: 0.02%, ZG 4.02), and the results showed that there was a spatial autocorrelation between 2005 and 2009 in the reported incidence of gonorrhea in Shenzhen. Three-dimensional trend analysis showed that the incidence of gonorrhea decreased from west to east, and was high at both ends in the north and south, and low in the middle. Local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that (Local Moran's I (0.41), (Local Moran's (0.31) and Xin'an (Local Moran'sI=0.21,) in Nantou street, western Shenzhen, were 0.41, 0.31, and 2.47, respectively. The high incidence area of gonorrhea, the low incidence area, the high incidence area of gonorrhea, the low incidence area, the (Local Moran's I of Dapeng street in the east of Shenzhen and the (Local Moran's I ~ (0.16) ~ (1. 16) Z ~ (1. 97) of Hang Zi street. 2. The results of simple spatial scanning analysis showed that the concentrated areas of high incidence of gonorrhea in 2005 were Songgang, Gongming street in northwestern Shenzhen, Nanshan and Nantou streets in southwestern Shenzhen in 2006, Songgang, Gongming and Shajing streets in 2007. Nantou street in the southwest of Shenzhen in 2008 and Nanshan and Nantou streets in the southwest of Shenzhen in 2009; Simple time scanning analysis showed that the aggregation period of gonorrhea in Shenzhen was 11-12 months in 2005 and 2007, 10-11 months in 2006, 7-9 and 5-7 months in 2008 and 2009, respectively. Spatio-temporal scanning analysis showed that the incidence of gonorrhea in the streets of Guangdong, Nantou, Nanshan and Shahe in Shenzhen City had agglomeration (LLR=84.06,RR=2.40) in March-July 2005, Nanshan, Nantou, Yuehai, Nanshan, Nantou, Guangdong, etc. The incidence of gonorrhea in the streets of Merchants and Shekou was clustered (LLR=869.75,RR=8.87) from April to June 2006, and the gonorrhea in Nantou, Nanshan, Guangdong and Xinan streets was LLR=645.47, RR=6.45 and Nantou from April to June of 2007. The incidence of gonorrhea in Nanshan, Guangdong, Merchants and Shekou streets from April to June 2008 was LLR=959.05,RR=7.65, Xin'an, Xili, Nantou, Xixiang, The incidence of gonorrhea in the streets of Guangdong and Nanshan was LLR=1157.85,RR=6.78 from April to June 2009. Conclusion: the incidence of gonorrhea and the incidence of gonorrhea are clustered in time, space and time. The high incidence area of gonorrhea from 2005 to 2009 is located in the southwest of Shenzhen. The low incidence area is located in the northeast of Shenzhen. The spatial agglomeration area of gonorrhea cases in Shenzhen is mainly located in the northwest and southwest of China, and the agglomeration period of gonorrhea has the tendency of moving forward from the fourth quarter, and the spatio-temporal aggregation is characterized by the clustering in the southwest of Shenzhen in the second quarter of each year. Spatial autocorrelation and spatial scanning statistics can be used to reveal the spatial and temporal aggregation characteristics of gonorrhea in Shenzhen and to determine the key areas for the prevention and control of gonorrhea.
【学位授予单位】：中南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：R759.2
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