应用SaTScan与FleXScan识别丙型肝炎发病的高风险区域

发布时间：2018-04-29 09:34

  本文选题：肝炎 + 丙型　； 参考：《中华疾病控制杂志》2017年08期

【摘要】：目的探测2015年上海市浦东新区丙型肝炎(简称"丙肝")发病的空间聚集性,识别丙肝发病的高风险区域;比较SaTScan与FleXScan在疾病空间聚集性探测方面的应用效果。方法收集2015年浦东新区丙肝的发病数据,以街道和镇为分析单位,分别采用SaTScan 9.4.4与FleXScan 3中的Poisson模型探测丙肝发病空间聚集区域;并通过调整参数比较两个软件在不同参数设置下所探测到的聚集区域的位置和范围的变化情况。结果上海浦东2015年丙肝发病率为12.72/10万;SaTScan和FleXScan均只扫描到一个具有统计学意义(P0.05)的空间聚集区域,分别包含10个镇(川沙新镇、大团、合庆、惠南、祝桥、宣桥、周浦、新场、老港和万祥)和4个镇(川沙新镇、张江、曹路和合庆),两种方法的扫描结果均覆盖了川沙新镇和合庆镇;SaTScan的窗口比例从50%变化到25%,聚集区域范围减少了一个镇,FleXScan设定不同K值所探测到的聚集区域变化范围较大。结论上海浦东新区2015年丙肝发病存在空间聚集性,结合SaTScan的和FleXScan的扫描结果认为川沙新镇和合庆镇是浦东丙肝发病的高风险区域和重点防控区域。
[Abstract]:Objective to investigate the spatial aggregation of hepatitis C (hepatitis C) in Pudong New area of Shanghai in 2015, and to identify the high risk area of hepatitis C, and to compare the application effect of SaTScan and FleXScan in detecting the spatial aggregation of hepatitis C. Methods the incidence data of hepatitis C in Pudong New area in 2015 were collected. The Poisson models of SaTScan 9.4.4 and FleXScan 3 were used to detect the spatial aggregation of hepatitis C in the streets and towns. The change of the location and range of the aggregation area detected by the two software under different parameter settings is compared by adjusting the parameters. Results in 2015, the incidence of hepatitis C in Pudong, Shanghai, was 12.72 / 100 000. Both SaTScan and FleXScan scanned only one spatial gathering area with statistical significance (P0.05), which included 10 towns (Chuanshaxin Town, Big Group, Heqing, Huinan, Zhuqiao, Xuanqiao, Zhoupu, Xinchang, respectively). Lao Gang and Wan Xiang) and 4 towns (Chuansha Xin Town, Zhang Jiang, The scanning results of both methods cover the window ratio of SaTScan from 50% to 25% in Chuanshaxin Town and Heping Town, and decrease the range of aggregation area by one town FleXScan setting different K values. Conclusion there is spatial aggregation of hepatitis C in 2015 in Pudong New area of Shanghai. Combined with the scanning results of SaTScan and FleXScan, it is concluded that Chuansha Xin Town and Heqing Town are high risk areas and key prevention and control areas for hepatitis C infection in Pudong.
【作者单位】： 复旦大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室复旦大学公共卫生学院公共卫生安全教育部重点实验室;复旦大学浦东预防研究院微生物检测平台;上海市浦东新区疾病预防控制中心传染病防治与消毒管理科;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(81673239) 上海市卫生局局级课题(20134241)
【分类号】：R512.63
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本文编号：1819371