辽宁省手足口病疫情季节性ARIMA模型预测效果评价

发布时间：2018-01-13 14:28

本文关键词：辽宁省手足口病疫情季节性ARIMA模型预测效果评价　出处：《中国公共卫生》2017年10期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：目的利用时间序列法研究手足口病的发病趋势和流行特征,建立ARIMA乘积季节模型,对2017年7月—2018年12月辽宁省手足口病的月发病疫情情况及流行强度进行预测,为手足口病的预防监测工作提供依据。方法收集辽宁省手足口病2012年1月—2016年12月的月发病报告数,采用Excel 2010建立辽宁省手足口病月报告发病数数据库,应用SPSS 23.0软件进行SARIMA模型的构建,拟合发病情况,对辽宁省手足口病2017年7月—2018年12月发病数进行预测,评价预测效果。结果辽宁省手足口病发病特征以年为流行周期,季节性周期为12个月(s=12)。每年6—9月为该病的发病高峰期。最佳模型为SARIMA(0,1,0)×(1,1,0)_(12)季节性模型,模型残差Ljung-Box Q=18.564,P=0.354,序列为白噪声。预测平均相对误差为0.229,预测效果较好。结论季节性ARIMA模型能较好的拟合辽宁省手足口病的发病流行趋势,能够比较直观准确的反映辽宁省手足口病的疫情发展情况,该模型适用于辽宁省手足口病的短期流行趋势的预测。
[Abstract]:Objective using time series method of HFMD incidence trend and epidemiological characteristics, establish ARIMA model to forecast the monthly incidence, epidemic situation from July 2017 to December 2018 in Liaoning province and the HFMD epidemic intensity, HFMD prevention monitoring work provide the basis. Methods the monthly incidence report collected from January 2012 December 2016 in Liaoning province the number of HFMD, established by Excel 2010 in Liaoning Province, the number of reported incidence of HFMD may construct the database, SPSS 23 software was used to fit the SARIMA model, the incidence of Liaoning province were predicted hand foot and mouth disease incidence from July 2017 to December 2018, the effectiveness is evaluated. Results the incidence of HFMD in Liaoning province by year for the fashion cycle, the seasonal cycle of 12 months (s=12). Every year from 6 to September is the peak incidence of the disease. The best model for SARIMA (0,1,0) * (1,1,0) _ (season 12) Section of model, model Q=18.564 P=0.354, residual Ljung-Box, sequence is white noise prediction. The average relative error is 0.229, and good prediction effect. Conclusion the seasonal ARIMA model can better fit the Liaoning province HFMD epidemic trend, can more accurately reflects the development of the epidemic disease in Liaoning province HFMD, forecast the the model is suitable for the short-term trend of Liaoning province HFMD.

【作者单位】：辽宁省疾病预防控制中心感染与传染性疾病控制所;大连医科大学公共卫生学院;中国医科大学公共卫生学院;
【基金】：国家科技重大专项课题(2012ZX10004209)
【分类号】：R181.3;R512.5
【正文快照】： 手足口病(hand-foot-mouth disease,HFMD)是由多种人肠道病毒引起的一种儿童常见传染病,于2008年定为中国法定报告管理的丙类传染病[1]。大多数患儿患病症状轻微,以发热和手足、臀部以及口腔颊面等部位出现皮疹或疱疹为主要症状[2]。少数患儿可引起肺水肿、心肌炎、无菌性脑膜

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