成都市甲型H1N1流感流行强度的时空演化机制分析

发布时间：2018-01-22 07:47

本文关键词： 流感病毒A型 HN亚型流感人疾病传播　出处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2017年07期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：目的探析成都市甲型H1N1流感(简称H1N1)的时空传播机制。方法利用2009年成都市H1N1数据,采用时空扫描统计量和小世界网络分析探讨疫情流行强度的演化机制。结果热点时间多分布在9月中上旬。热点区数量由市中心向外呈现递减趋势,其中主城6区占据多数热点区。热点区单位大多数是学校,占单位总数的51.85%。成都市H1N1传播的小世界网络呈现以下特点:H1N1病例大致是从较偏远的外圈层流向一圈层(主城区);主城六区以入度(输入型病例)为主;三圈层、较远的二圈层均为出度(输出型病例);主城六区间的传播网络就是强连通网络,并且主城区之间输入输出病例数值均较大;主城六区和双流、温江是H1N1传播网络的核心,在H1N1的传播过程中处于核心地位。结论不同圈层的区县在H1N1传播风险程度上差异较大;主城区的传播风险程度最高;学校是聚集性疫情的高危险区;在传染病疫情到来时加强这些区域及高风险单位防控措施的强度;对控制整个成都传染病疫情有重要作用。
[Abstract]:Objective to explore the temporal and spatial transmission mechanism of influenza A (H1N1) in Chengdu. Methods the data of H1N1 in Chengdu in 2009 were used. Spatio-temporal scanning statistics and small-world network were used to analyze the evolution mechanism of epidemic intensity. Results the hot spot time was distributed in the middle and the first ten days of September. The number of hot spots decreased from the center of the city to the outside. One of the main city 6 area occupied the majority of hot spots. Hot spot units are mostly schools. The small world network of H1N1 transmission in Chengdu presents the following characteristics: the case of H1N1 is approximately from the more remote outer layer to a circle (main urban area); In the six districts of the main city, the degree of entry (imported cases) was the main factor. The three circles and the farther two layers are all outliers (output-type cases); The communication network of the six sections of the main city is a strongly connected network, and the input-output case values between the main urban areas are large. Wenjiang is the core of H1N1 transmission network and is in the core position in the process of H1N1 transmission. The transmission risk of the main urban area is the highest; Schools are high risk areas for concentrated outbreaks; Strengthening the intensity of prevention and control measures in these regions and high-risk units when infectious disease outbreaks come; It plays an important role in controlling the epidemic of infectious diseases in Chengdu.
【作者单位】：成都市疾病预防控制中心高新分中心;
【基金】：国家质检公益性科研项目(201210046) 成都市卫生计生委科研项目(140206)
【分类号】：R181.3;R511.7
【正文快照】： 近年来,不同领域研究者对甲型H1N1流感(简称H1N1)进行了大量的研究,但仍然有很多未解谜团,针对其微观演化机制(如区域内部的时空传播特征和区域之间的网络结构及疾病的扩散流向特征)还缺乏充分的认识[1-2]。成都市地形图似旭日图,每一环又称为一个圈层,每个圈层内由形似扇形的

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