2009-2015年辽宁省阜新市手足口病流行病学特征分析

发布时间：2018-01-27 16:51

  本文关键词： 手足口病 流行特征 肠道病毒　出处：《预防医学情报杂志》2017年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：目的分析辽宁省阜新市2009-2015年手足口病流行病学特征,预测手足口病短期趋势。方法采用描述流行病学分析和相关统计分析方法,对阜新市2009-2015年手足口病的流行病学特征进行统计分析。利用2009-01/2016-06的分月手足口病发病数时间序列构建自回归移动平均模型ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12。结果 2009-2015年阜新市共报告手足口病4 419例,年均发病率为30.72/10万,无死亡病例,全市7个县(区)均出现不同程度的流行,以市区、县为主。时间分布呈单峰型,主要集中在6~8月;年龄以≤5岁儿童为主,集中在散居儿童和幼托儿童;病原类型以EV71为优势病原,柯萨奇A组16型(Cox A16)和其他肠道病毒所占比例接近。结论阜新市手足口病季节性明显,呈周期性流行,市区和县是重点防控地区,不同地区优势病原不同,病原监测尽量采集发病7d内的样本,ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12模型可用于阜新市手足口病短期预测。
[Abstract]:Objective to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Fuxin City, Liaoning Province from 2009 to 2015, and to predict the short-term trend of HFMD. Methods descriptive epidemiological analysis and statistical analysis were used. The epidemiological characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Fuxin City from 2009 to 2015 were statistically analyzed. The autoregressive movement was constructed by using the number of time series of monthly HFMD in 2009-01 / 2016-06. Average model Arima (. 1. Results A total of 4 419 cases of hand, foot and mouth disease were reported in Fuxin city from 2009 to 2015. The average annual incidence rate was 30 72 / 100 000. No death cases were reported. In the seven counties (districts) of the whole city, the epidemic occurred in different degrees, mainly in urban area and county. The time distribution was single-peak type, which was mainly concentrated from 6 to August. Age 鈮，

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