武汉市武昌区手足口病控制图法预警模型研究

发布时间：2018-02-06 02:09

本文关键词： 手足口病 ROC曲线控制图预警模型　出处：《重庆医学》2017年22期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：目的基于控制图法构建武汉市武昌区手足口病预警模型,确定最佳预警界值,为该区手足口病监测工作提供数据支持。方法从国家传染病报告系统中整理2009-2014年武昌区手足口病数据并建立数据库,采用移动百分位数法建立预警模型,通过筛检试验方法对模型进行评价,计算出灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值和阴性预测值,绘制ROC曲线并找出最佳预警界值。结果武汉市武昌区手足口病最佳预警界值为P90,其灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值和阴性预测值分别为75.00%、93.88%、50.00%和97.87%。结论手足口病预警界值的确定应根据发病特点结合当地疫情优选,注重地区特异性,提高传染病疫情监测能力。
[Abstract]:Objective to establish an early warning model of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Wuchang District of Wuhan City based on the control chart method, and to determine the best warning threshold value. Methods the data of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) were collected from the national infectious disease reporting system in Wuchang from 2009 to 2014 and the database was established. The early warning model was established by moving percentile method, and the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were calculated by screening test method. Results the best early warning value of hand, foot and mouth disease in Wuchang District of Wuhan City was P90. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 75.00%, respectively. Conclusion the early warning threshold of HFMD should be selected according to the characteristics of HFMD and local epidemic situation, pay attention to regional specificity and improve the surveillance ability of infectious diseases.
【作者单位】：武汉大学公共卫生学院;湖北省武汉市武昌区疾病预防控制中心;湖北省宜昌市疾病预防控制中心;
【分类号】：R181.8;R725.1

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