北京市紫外辐射对人体健康的影响及其统计预报模型

发布时间：2018-02-27 03:31

本文关键词： 紫外辐射人体健康气象因子预报模型　出处：《兰州大学学报(自然科学版)》2015年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：利用2005-2011年中国科学院大气物理研究所铁塔分部的辐射观测资料和北京3所三级甲等医院2008-2011年皮肤病及眼部疾病急诊人数资料,对紫外辐射和相关疾病进行分析.选取与紫外辐射相关系数通过α=0.05显著性检验的气象要素作为预报因子,利用逐步回归方法分月建立紫外辐射强度预报方程.结果表明:紫外辐射与皮肤病的相关系数为0.367,与眼部疾病的相关系数为0.265,均通过α=0.001的显著性检验.不同月份紫外辐射的日变化规律不同,对人体产生伤害的时间段有所差异;紫外辐射强度与总云量、低云量、能见度、风向、风速、气压、相对湿度、气温等有关,其中与总云量、低云量、能见度的相关性最显著;1-11月预报方程历史回代检验的平均评分为82.8,试预报的平均评分为82.7;预报模型的拟合能力和推广能力较好,为实际业务提供了指导意义.
[Abstract]:The use of radiation data of China Science Institute of Atmospheric Physics 2005-2011 years tower segment and Beijing 3 three hospitals for 2008-2011 years and the number of skin disease emergency eye disease data analysis on ultraviolet radiation and related diseases. Through the meteorological elements of alpha =0.05 significant test as predictors of correlation coefficient selection and ultraviolet radiation using the monthly establishment, UV radiation intensity prediction equation of stepwise regression method. The results showed that the correlation coefficient of ultraviolet radiation and skin diseases was 0.367, the correlation coefficient and the eye disease is 0.265, through the significant test of a =0.001. The diurnal variation of UV radiation in different months in different period of time, have hurt the difference of human body; ultraviolet radiation intensity and the total cloud and low cloud, visibility, wind direction, wind speed, air pressure, relative humidity, temperature and so on, with the total cloud and low cloud, visibility The correlation is the most significant. The average score of the 1-11 month forecast equation is 82.8, and the average score of the trial forecast is 82.7. The fitting ability and generalization ability of the prediction model are better, which provides guidance for the actual business.

【作者单位】：兰州大学大气科学学院气象环境与人体健康研究中心;中国科学院大气物理研究所大气边界层物理和大气化学国家重点实验室;成都信息工程大学大气科学学院;
【基金】：国家公益性行业(气象)专项项目(GYHY201106034) 国家人口与健康科学数据共享平台“气象环境与健康”专题服务建设项目和国家科技支撑计划课题(2012BAJ18B08)
【分类号】：R122.2

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