大连市传染病自动预警系统构建及效果评价

发布时间：2018-03-07 20:03

本文选题：传染病　切入点：预警　出处：《中国公共卫生》2015年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：目的建立简单易行的传染病自动预警方法,尽早发现暴发疫情或突发公共卫生事件的发生,指导事件处理。方法利用《中国疾病预防控制信息系统》中直报的传染病卡片项目信息,自主研发《大连市传染病自动预警系统》,对大连市突发公共卫生事件及暴发疫情进行实时预警。结果 2012—2013年,系统预警传染病突发事件5起,预警灵敏度为71.43%,阳性预测值为55.56%;预警传染病暴发疫情256起,预警灵敏度为89.82%,阳性预测值为67.02%。与我国现行传染病自动预警信息系统比较,本次开发的预警信息系统灵敏度较高(χ2=409.47,P=0.000 0),阳性预测值也较高(χ2=2 007.02,P=0.000 0)。结论大连市传染病自动预警系统能够利用网络报告的传染病卡片信息,及时探测到聚集疫情,实现早期预警,且灵敏度及阳性预测值均较高,更适合所辖地域小的地市或区市县级使用。
[Abstract]:Objective to establish a simple and easy method for automatic warning of infectious diseases, and to detect outbreaks or public health emergencies as soon as possible. Methods the item information of infectious disease card directly reported in China Disease Prevention and Control Information system was used. The Autonomous early warning system for Communicable Diseases in Dalian was independently developed to provide real-time early warning of public health emergencies and outbreaks in Dalian. Results in 2012-2013, 5 outbreaks of infectious diseases were systematically warned. The sensitivity of early warning was 71.43 and the positive predictive value was 55.56.The sensitivity of early warning was 89.82, and the positive predictive value was 67.02.Compared with the current automatic early warning information system of infectious diseases in China, the sensitivity was 89.82 and the positive predictive value was 67.02. The sensitivity of the early warning information system developed in this paper is high (蠂 ~ 2 ~ 2 ~ (49.47) P ~ (0.000)), and the positive predictive value is also high (蠂 ~ (2) 2 007.02 / P ~ (0.000)). Conclusion the automatic early warning system of infectious diseases in Dalian can use the information of infectious disease cards reported on the network to detect the epidemic situation in time and realize early warning. The sensitivity and positive predictive value are higher, which is more suitable for prefectural or prefectural level.
【作者单位】：大连市疾病预防控制中心;大连医科大学;
【分类号】：R183

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