运用证据权重与确定性系数合成模型进行钉螺-环境因子的空间关系研究

发布时间：2018-03-19 10:50

  本文选题：鄱阳湖　切入点：钉螺-环境关系　出处：《长江流域资源与环境》2017年09期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：钉螺是血吸虫唯一中间宿主,研究钉螺与孳生环境因子的空间关系对采取有效的查螺、灭螺措施有重要的科学和社会价值。以鄱阳湖恒湖农场茶叶港草洲为研究对象,应用证据权重法与确定性系数法合成模型研究植物南荻、苔草、藜蒿、土壤温度、土壤湿度、导电率、海拔高程7个证据因子与"钉螺出现与否"的空间关系。结果表明:研究区内一定范围内高程的增加易于钉螺孳生;钉螺在湿度相对较大(大于0.35%(m~3/m~3))的环境中分布较少;苔草丰度过大(高于4 368 cm~3/m2)过小(低于1 457 cm~3/m2)都不利于钉螺孳生;钉螺较易孳生在南荻丰度较大(高于2 745 cm~3/m2)的区域;电导率较高(高于0.07 m S/cm)区域钉螺较少;土壤温度在16~20℃范围利于钉螺孳生。在模型预测结果图中,占研究区总面积13.7%的极高易发区的较小范围内预测到82%的钉螺空间分布,评价曲线的曲线下面积高达88.7%,说明模型的预测成功率很高,表明该模型适合研究区域钉螺孳生与其影响因子之间的空间关系。
[Abstract]:Oncomelania hupensis is the only intermediate host of Schistosoma japonicum. It is of great scientific and social value to study the spatial relationship between Oncomelania hupensis and breeding environment factors in order to take effective snail detection and snail control measures. A synthetic model was used to study the soil temperature, soil humidity, electrical conductivity of Artemisia mongolicum, Carex spp., Artemisia mongolica, and soil moisture by using evidence weight method and certainty coefficient method. The spatial relationship between the seven evidential factors of altitude and the occurrence or not of Oncomelania hupensis. The results showed that the increase of elevation in the study area was easy for snail breeding, and the snail was less distributed in the environment where the humidity was higher than 0.35% (> 0.35%). Too large abundance (> 4 368 cm ~ (3 / m ~ (2))) (< 1 457 cm / m ~ (3) 路m ~ (2)) was unfavorable to snail breeding, snails were more likely to breed in areas with higher abundance (> 2 745 cm ~ (3) 路m ~ (2)), and snails with high electrical conductivity (> 0. 07 m 路s / m ~ (2)) were less. The soil temperature of 16 ~ 20 鈩，

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