气温及大气污染物对上海市儿童健康的影响

发布时间：2018-04-08 14:00

  本文选题：气温　切入点：大气污染物　出处：《复旦大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：研究目的 1.估计日均气温、日最大温差、两日日均气温差及其绝对值、早晚温差及其绝对值、早中温差及其绝对值对上海市儿童发热就诊人次的影响。 2.探索7日的日均气温对上海市医保儿童呼吸科就诊人次影响的效应分布,并研究日均气温与上海市医保儿童呼吸科就诊人次之间的关系,进而建立预报模型。 3.分析日均气温对儿童烧伤急诊人次的影响。评估PM10,SO2和NO2三种大气污染物对儿童烧伤急诊人次的短期暴露效应、中长期暴露效应及其与日均气温的交互作用。 研究方法 收集上海市儿童医学中心2006/1/1-2010/8/23之间儿童发热门诊人次数据、上海市医保局2008/4/1-2010/12/31之间儿童呼吸科门诊人次数据、上海市长海医院和瑞金医院2002/1/1-2010/12/31儿童烧伤急诊人次数据及同时段上海市的气象资料和大气污染物资料。分别以儿童患病就诊人次作为健康效应指标,估计气温变化及大气污染对儿童健康的影响。运用混合广义相加模型(mixed generalized additive model,MGAM),分析时间序列数据。在控制时间变迁趋势、星期效应和节假日效应的基础上,评估大气污染对儿童健康的短期暴露效应和中长期暴露效应,估计气温对儿童健康的延迟效应分布和函数效应曲线,并由此建立外部预报模型。 研究结果 1.日均气温、日最大温差、两日日均气温差、早晚温差及其绝对值、早中温差及其绝对值对上海市儿童发热就诊人次有影响。日均气温、日最大温差、两日日均气温差、早晚温差及其绝对值、早中温差及其绝对值越大,儿童发热就诊人次越多。其中,日均气温对儿童发热就诊人次的影响最大。 2.上海市医保儿童呼吸科就诊人次与多日的日均气温有关。观察日的日均气温对就诊人次的影响最大,观察日的前3日次之,其它几日的影响较小。7日加权气温与就诊人次的关系呈现一条非对称的钟形曲线,在12.9℃左右,就诊人次最多。现有模型对未来1日的就诊人次的预报效果良好。 3.日均气温对儿童烧伤急诊人次有影响,当日均气温低于7.4℃时,儿童烧伤急诊人次随气温的升高而降低；当日均气温高于7.4℃时,儿童烧伤急诊人次随气温的升高而增加；尤其当日均气温高于27℃左右时,儿童烧伤急诊人次随气温的升高而显著增加。PM10,SO2和对儿童烧伤急诊人次有影响。NO2的周效应与日均气温有交互作用；SO2的周效应和月效应与日均气温有交互作用；其他效应均为主效应。其他气象因素保持不变时,空气中PM10的日平均浓度、周平均浓度和月平均浓度升高10μg/m3,儿童烧伤急诊人次分别增加为原来的1.004、1.014和1.005倍；空气中SO2日平均浓度、中温段时的周平均浓度、高温段时的周平均浓度、低温段时的月平均浓度、中温段时的月平均浓度、高温段时的月平均浓度和年平均浓度升高10μg/m3,儿童烧伤急诊人次分别增加为原来的1.015、1.050、1.052、1.048、1.042、1.108和2.578倍；空气中NO2中温段时的周平均浓度、月平均浓度和年平均浓度升高10μg/m3,儿童烧伤急诊人次分别增加为原来的1.028、1.068和3.260倍。 结论 上海市日均气温变化及大气污染物水平对儿童健康有影响。了解气温及大气污染与儿童健康的关联,有利于提醒父母做好相应措施,预防和控制疾病的发生和发展,而且可以为医疗机构管理者合理调配医疗资源、监测突发事件提供可靠依据。
[Abstract]:Purpose of study

1 . Estimated daily average temperature , daily maximum temperature difference , daily average temperature difference and its absolute value , early and late temperature difference and its absolute value , early - middle temperature difference and its absolute value influence the number of children ' s fever in Shanghai .

2 . To explore the effect distribution of daily average temperature of 7 days on the number of visits to respiratory department of Shanghai Medical Insurance Children , and to study the relationship between the daily average temperature and the attendance of medical insurance children in Shanghai , and then establish the prediction model .

3 . The effects of daily average temperature on the emergency number of children ' s burn were analyzed . The short - term exposure effect , medium - long - term exposure effect and the interaction between the three kinds of atmospheric pollutants ( PM _ 2 , SO _ 2 and NO _ 2 ) on the emergency number of children ' s burn were assessed .

Research Methods

The data of children ' s fever outpatient visits between 2006 / 1 / 1 - 2010 / 8 / 23 of Shanghai Municipal Children ' s Medical Center were collected . The data of outpatient visits of children ' s respiratory department between 2008 / 4 / 1 - 2010 / 12 / 31 , Shanghai Mayor Hai Hospital and Ruijin Hospital in 2002 / 1 / 1 - 2010 / 12 / 31 were collected . The effects of air pollution on children ' s health were estimated by using mixed generalized additive model ( MGAM ) . The effects of air pollution on children ' s health were estimated by using mixed generalized additive model ( MGAM ) .

Results of the study

1 . The daily average temperature , the daily maximum temperature difference , the daily average temperature difference , the early and late temperature difference and the absolute value , the early and middle temperature difference and the absolute value of the daily average temperature difference , the early and late temperature difference and the absolute value of the daily average temperature difference , the early and late temperature difference and the absolute value of the temperature difference , the early and late temperature difference and the absolute value of the temperature difference and the early and middle temperature difference and the absolute value of the temperature difference and the early and middle temperature difference and the absolute value thereof are larger .

2 . The number of visits to the respiratory department of Shanghai Medical Insurance Children is related to the daily average temperature of many days . The daily average temperature of the observation day is the largest on the number of visits , and the effect on the other several days is less than that on the first 3 days of the observation day . The relation between the weighted temperature and the visit time shows an asymmetric bell - shaped curve . At 12.9 鈩，

本文编号：1721919