我国2004-2013年疟疾发病率的时间趋势分析

发布时间：2018-04-13 10:32

本文选题：疟疾 + 时间趋势分析　；参考：《中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志》2017年02期

【摘要】：目的对我国2004-2013年疟疾发病率进行时间趋势分析,阐明我国疟疾发病的趋势。方法应用Joinpoint软件对我国2004-2013年疟疾发病率进行Joinpoint模型分析,并计算年度变化百分比(APC);同时应用灰色建模系统软件进行灰色关联分析。结果疟疾总发病率的趋势变化联接点是2006年,APC分别为34.8%(P0.05)和-37.9%(P0.05);间日疟发病率的趋势变化联接点是2007年,APC分别为14.7%(P0.05)和-51.5%(P0.05);恶性疟发病率的趋势变化联接点是2009年,APC分别为-39.6%(P0.05)和-25.9%(P0.05);未分型疟疾发病率的趋势变化联接点是2006年,APC分别为31.7%(P0.05)和-40.7%(P0.05)。间日疟、恶性疟和未分型疟疾的发病率与疟疾总发病率的综合关联度依次为0.887 7、0.625 4、0.844 5。本地疟疾发病率的趋势变化联接点是2008年,APC分别为2.43%(P0.05)和-72.89%(P0.05),本地疟疾发病率与疟疾总发病率的综合关联度为0.969 3结论我国疟疾总发病率、本地疟疾发病率、间日疟发病率和未分型疟疾发病率均呈明显下降趋势。2004-2009年恶性疟发病率呈下降趋势,2009-2013年恶性疟发病率保持平稳。
[Abstract]:The purpose of China's 2004-2013 years of malaria incidence time trend analysis, to clarify China's malaria incidence trend. Methods Joinpoint software was used to our country 2004-2013 years the incidence of malaria were analyzed by Joinpoint regression model, and calculate the annual percentage change (APC); the application of grey correlation analysis and grey system modeling software. The trend of change of connection point results the total incidence of malaria in 2006, APC was 34.8% (P0.05) and -37.9% (P0.05); the change trend of connection point of vivax malaria incidence in 2007, APC was 14.7% (P0.05) and -51.5% (P0.05); the change trend of connection point p.f.incidence is APC -39.6% (2009, respectively. P0.05) and -25.9% (P0.05); not the trend of malaria incidence type connection point is 2006, APC was 31.7% (P0.05) and -40.7% (P0.05). Vivax malaria, Plasmodium falciparum and unclassified malaria incidence rate and the total incidence of malaria The comprehensive correlation degree in trend of connection of 0.887 7,0.625 4,0.844 5. local malaria incidence in 2008, APC was 2.43% (P0.05) and -72.89% (P0.05), the incidence of malaria and malaria incidence comprehensive correlation degree is 0.9693 of China's total conclusion malaria incidence, the incidence of malaria. The incidence of vivax malaria and unclassified malaria incidence were significantly decreased in.2004-2009 falciparum malaria incidence decreased, 2009-2013 years p.f.incidence remained stable.

【作者单位】：湖北民族学院医学院;中国疾病预防控制中心寄生虫病预防控制所世界卫生组织热带病合作中心科技部国家级热带病国际联合研究中心卫生部寄生虫病原与媒介生物学重点实验室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(No.NSFC81273192)~~
【分类号】：R181.3;R531.3

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