南京市天气敏感性疾病变化特征研究及GAM模型应用

发布时间：2018-04-19 03:26

本文选题：心脑血管疾病 + 呼吸系统疾病　；参考：《南京信息工程大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：为了有效分析南京地区气象条件对天气敏感性疾病的影响,提高居民健康气象服务水平,论文根据南京市2004-2010年常住人口每日死亡资料和气象观测资料,分别描述了南京市心脑血管疾病、呼吸系统疾病死亡情况和寒潮天气发生的时间分布特征。将寒潮作为危险因素,时间序列的节假日效应、长期趋势和短期趋势作为混杂因素,利用广义相加模型(generalized additive model, GAM)研究寒潮天气的发生对天气敏感性疾病死亡的影响作用,使用相对危险度(relative risk, RR)将这种滞后性影响进行量化,并且针对两种不同疾病分别进行了性别差异和年龄差异的分析。结论如下： (1)南京市心脑血管疾病死亡每年冬季1月最高,夏季6月或7月最低；25岁以下、25-44岁、45-59岁三个年龄组所占比例均呈下降趋势,其中男性比例均高于女性；60岁以上人群所占比例上升,其中女性比例高于男性。呼吸系统疾病死亡在冬季高发,夏季最低,总体呈下降趋势,25岁以下、60岁以上人群比例下降,25-44岁和45-59岁人群比例上升,其中25-44岁人群,女性比例高于男性。 (2)日最低温对心脑血管疾病全部死亡、男性死亡、女性死亡的滞后影响期均为2d,60岁以上人群的滞后响应期为4d,该要素的变化对女性影响最大,对60岁以上人群的影响次之,再次为男性心脑血管疾病患者。日平均温度对呼吸系统疾病全部死亡、女性和60岁以上人群死亡的滞后影响期均为4d,该要素变化对女性影响最大,其次为60岁以上人群,最后为全部呼吸性疾病患者。针对不同因变量修正得到的不同的GAM模型,可以用作呼吸性疾病死亡人数的时间序列研究。 (3)日平均相对湿度对心脑血管疾病全部死亡、男性、女性、60岁以上人群的滞后影响期分别为0d、2d、0-1d、Od,按影响程度大小的顺序为：心脑血管疾病全部死亡、60岁以上人群、女性、男性。针对不同因变量修正得到的不同的GAM模型,可以用作心脑血管疾病死亡人数的时间序列研究。 (4)南京地区近7a的寒潮高发月份为春季3月,总体稳定少变少发,其中低温升高是寒潮少发的主导因素。寒潮期间对天气敏感性疾病有影响作用的气象要素有温度和日平均相对湿度。
[Abstract]:In order to effectively analyze the influence of meteorological conditions on weather sensitive diseases in Nanjing and improve the health meteorological service of residents, the paper based on the daily death data and meteorological observation data of resident population in Nanjing from 2004 to 2010.The time distribution of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and cold weather in Nanjing were described.Taking cold wave as risk factor, holiday effect of time series, long term trend and short term trend as mixed factor, generalized additive model (gamm) is used to study the effect of cold wave weather on the death of weather sensitive diseases.Relative risk risk (RRR) was used to quantify the lag effect, and the gender and age differences were analyzed for two different diseases.The conclusions are as follows:(1) the mortality rate of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Nanjing was the highest in January and the lowest in June or July in summer. The proportion of the three age groups aged 25 to 44 years and 45 to 59 years all showed a decreasing trend.The proportion of male is higher than that of female over 60, and the proportion of female is higher than that of male.The death rate of respiratory diseases in winter was high and the lowest in summer. The overall trend was that the proportion of people under 25 years old and over 60 years old decreased and the proportion of people aged 25-44 years and 45-59 years old increased. Among them, the proportion of women aged 25-44 years was higher than that of men.The lag effect period of death of male and female was 4 days. The change of this factor had the greatest effect on women, followed by those over 60 years old.Again for male patients with cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease.The lag period of death in women and over 60 years old was 4 days. The change of this factor had the greatest effect on women, followed by the people over 60 years old, and finally all patients with respiratory diseases.Different GAM models based on different dependent variables can be used to study the number of deaths from respiratory diseases in time series.The average daily relative humidity caused all death of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. The delayed period of influence of male and female over 60 years old was 0 d / 2 d ~ 0 ~ (-1) d / d respectively. The order of influence degree was as follows: all death of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases were over 60 years old, female, male.Different GAM models based on different dependent variables can be used to study the number of deaths from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in time series.(4) the high occurrence month of cold wave in Nanjing area in recent 7 years is March in spring, and the low temperature rise is the main factor of cold wave low occurrence.Temperature and mean daily relative humidity are the meteorological factors that affect weather sensitive diseases during cold wave.
【学位授予单位】：南京信息工程大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：R122

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