基于广义泊松模型的空气质量对医院呼吸科门诊人次的影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-27 14:28

本文选题：空气污染指标 + 呼吸科门诊量　；参考：《现代预防医学》2017年07期

【摘要】：目的研究山东省某市空气质量与某院呼吸科门诊人次的关系。方法在中国空气质量在线监测分析平台中查询得到济南市空气质量各指标的相关资料,同时提取山东省某三甲医院呼吸内科2014年的门诊量,首先对济南市空气质量和呼吸科门诊量进行统计描述,然后采用Pearson相关分析和广义泊松模型探索空气质量各指标与呼吸科门诊量的关系。结果 2014年济南市空气污染严重,尤其是冬季的空气污染更加严重;呼吸科门诊冬、春季患病人数多;空气质量各指标与呼吸科门诊量的相关性分析表明,温度和O_3与呼吸科门诊量存在负相关(P0.05),AQI、PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、SO_2等指标与呼吸科门诊量存在正相关(P0.05);通过广义泊松模型分析,调整非线性因素、星期一效应等因素以后,空气质量指数(AQI)日均浓度每增加10个单位,呼吸系统疾病门诊人次平均增长1.51%。结论济南市的空气污染状况以及某院的呼吸科门诊量均存在明显的季节特征;空气质量各指标除湿度外均与呼吸科门诊量存在相关性,并且空气质量指标对门诊量的影响存在滞后效应。
[Abstract]:Objective to study the relationship between air quality and respiratory outpatient visits in a city of Shandong Province. Methods the relevant data of air quality indexes in Jinan City were obtained from the air quality online monitoring and analysis platform in China, and the outpatient data of Department of Respiratory Medicine of a third Class A Hospital in Shandong Province in 2014 were extracted at the same time. First, the air quality and respiratory outpatient quantity in Jinan were statistically described, and then the relationship between air quality and respiratory outpatient quantity was explored by Pearson correlation analysis and generalized Poisson model. Results the air pollution was serious in Jinan city in 2014, especially in winter. There is a negative correlation between temperature and O _ 3 and the number of out-patients in the respiratory department. There is a positive correlation between the indexes such as temperature and O _ 3 and the number of out-patients in the respiratory department, such as P0.05, P0.05. after adjusting the nonlinear factors, Monday effect, and so on, after adjusting the factors such as the nonlinear factors, Monday effect, etc, there is a positive correlation between the indexes of temperature and O _ 3 and the number of out-patients in the respiratory department. For every 10 units of increase in average daily air quality index (AQI) concentration, the average number of outpatient visits to respiratory diseases increased by 1.51kum. Conclusion there are obvious seasonal characteristics of air pollution in Jinan city and the outpatient quantity of respiratory department in one hospital, and the air quality indexes are correlated with the outpatient quantity of respiratory department except humidity. And the influence of air quality index on outpatient quantity has hysteresis effect.
【作者单位】：滨州医学院公共卫生与管理学院;
【基金】：山东省医药卫生科技发展计划项目(2016WS0009) 山东省统计科研重点课题(KT16244)
【分类号】：R197.3;R122

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