基于不同政策场景下上海市空气污染治理政策健康效益分析

发布时间：2018-05-08 20:33

本文选题：空气污染 + 政策　；参考：《中国公共卫生》2017年06期

【摘要】：目的定量评价2001—2007年上海市空气污染治理政策的健康经济效益。方法运用MARKAL优化模型模拟2001—2007年各政策场景下细颗粒物PM_(10)的排放情况;根据暴露-反应关系估算归因于PM_(10)污染的居民死亡及发病数;结合单位健康效应的经济价值,计算相应的经济损失。结果 2001—2007年上海市实施大气污染物排放控制措施,相比2000年颗粒物年均值下降20.5μg/m~3,避免了8 817例居民死亡,减少了1.59万例慢性支气管炎,44.62万例急性支气管炎,2.50万哮喘发作病例,6 225例住院病例,28.75万次内科门诊和3.03万次儿科门诊,健康经济收益为17.47亿美元~31.83亿美元。结论上海市施行的一系列环境治理措施尤其是控制大气污染排放和调整能源结构,可以有效降低空气污染水平,改善城市居民的健康状况,带来可观的健康经济收益。
[Abstract]:Objective to evaluate quantitatively the health and economic benefits of air pollution control policies in Shanghai from 2001 to 2007. Methods the MARKAL optimization model was used to simulate the emission of fine particulate matter (PMSP 10) from 2001 to 2007, to estimate the number of deaths and morbidity of the residents attributable to PM10 pollution according to the exposure response relationship, and to combine the economic value of the unit health effect. Calculate the corresponding economic losses. Results from 2001 to 2007, Shanghai implemented measures to control the emission of atmospheric pollutants. Compared with the annual average of particulate matter in 2000, the annual average of particulate matter decreased by 20.5 渭 g / m ~ (3), thus avoiding 8,817 deaths of residents. 15900 cases of chronic bronchitis, 446200 cases of acute bronchitis, 25000 cases of asthma attack, 6 225 cases of hospitalization, 287500 times of internal medicine and 30300 times of pediatric clinic were reduced. The economic benefits of health were 1.747 billion ~ 3.183 billion dollars. Conclusion A series of environmental control measures implemented in Shanghai, especially air pollution emission control and energy structure adjustment, can effectively reduce the level of air pollution, improve the health status of urban residents, and bring considerable health economic benefits.
【作者单位】：复旦大学公共卫生学院环境卫生教研室公共卫生安全教育部重点实验室;上海市疾病预防控制中心合作交流培训处;
【基金】：上海市卫生计生委科研项目(2010Y041)
【分类号】：R12;X51

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