北京市不同度量方式下臭氧短期暴露人群急性健康效应研究

发布时间：2018-08-18 16:43

【摘要】：目的探讨北京市不同度量方式的臭氧(O_3)短期暴露水平与人群非意外死亡风险间的相关性。方法使用2009—2011年北京市O_3监测数据、人群非意外死亡数据以及其他相关气象因素等数据,采用基于泊松回归的时间序列广义线性模型(GLM),开展时间序列分析,探讨O_3短期暴露所致健康效应;考虑O_31日内浓度变异情况,本研究同时采用每日1 h最大值浓度、每日8 h最大值浓度以及每日24 h均值浓度等三类O_3暴露的不同度量方式,作为O_3短期暴露指标,并分别开展模型分析。结果研究结果表明,三类O_3暴露指标每增加10μg/m~3,均导致人群非意外死亡风险显著增加。其中,O_3每日1 h最大浓度值(lag1)每升高10μg/m~3,人群非意外死亡风险显著增加0.26%(95%CI:0.07%~0.45%);O_3每日8 h最大浓度值(lag1)每升高10μg/m~3,人群非意外死亡风险显著增加0.19%(95%CI:0.02%~0.36%);O_324 h均值浓度(lag1)每增加10μg/m~3,人群非意外死亡风险显著增加0.46%(95%CI:0.03%~0.89%)。此外,O_3暴露增加也会引起65岁以上老人及女性非意外死亡风险的显著增加。结论研究区域内O_3短期暴露水平的提升对于人群非意外死亡的增加具有显著影响,O_324 h均值浓度与人群非意外死亡增加的关联更密切。
[Abstract]:Objective to investigate the correlation between short-term exposure to ozone (O _ S _ 3) and the risk of non-accidental death in people with different measurements in Beijing. Methods using the data from 2009 to 2011, the data of non-accidental death and other meteorological factors, the time series analysis was carried out by using the generalized linear time series model (GLM),) based on Poisson regression. To investigate the health effects of short term exposure to O _ (3), and to consider the variation of O _ (3) concentration in O _ (31) days, we also used three types of O _ 3 exposures, such as maximum concentration of 1 hour per day, maximum concentration of 8 hours per day and mean concentration of 24 hours per day. As a short-term exposure index of O _ 3, model analysis was carried out respectively. Results the results showed that each increase of 10 渭 g / m ~ (-3) in the exposure index of three types of O _ 3 resulted in a significant increase in the risk of non-accidental death in the population. For every 10 渭 g / m-1 / d increase of lag1, the risk of non-accidental death increased by 0.26% (95% CI: 0.07% 0.45%). Every 10 渭 g / m ~ (3) increase in the maximum concentration (lag1) of 8 hours per day for O _ (3), the risk of non-accidental death of the crowd increased by 0.19% (95 CI: 0.02% 0.36%), and the average concentration (lag1) increased by 10 渭 g 路m ~ (3) per day, and the average concentration (lag1) increased by 10 渭 g 路m ~ (3) per day, and the risk of non-accidental death increased by 0.19% (95% CI: 0.02% 0.36%) for each 10 渭 g 路m ~ (-3) increase in the average h concentration (lag1). The risk of unintentional death increased by 0.46% (95 CI: 0.03 0.89%). In addition, increased exposure to O _ 3 also led to a significant increase in the risk of non-accidental death among people over 65 years of age and women. Conclusion the increase of short-term exposure level of O _ 3 in the study area has a significant effect on the increase of non-accidental death in the population, and it is more closely related to the increase of non-accidental death in the population with the mean concentration of 324h of O _ S _ 3.
【作者单位】：中国疾病预防控制中心环境与健康相关产品安全所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(21277135,91543111) 2014年国家“万人计划”青年拔尖人才项目
【分类号】：R122

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