兰州市气温对脑卒中发病的滞后效应研究

发布时间：2018-09-06 11:20

【摘要】：通过收集兰州市2010—2013年每日脑卒中发病资料,结合同一时间段的气象资料,利用分布滞后非线性模型分析气温与人群脑卒中发病的关联性,分析不同气温和不同滞后天数对脑卒中发病可能的影响。结果表明脑卒中发病与气象因素关系密切,气象因素与脑卒中病例数据的相关分析表明兰州市脑卒中每日发病人数与气温、气压和相对湿度均存在相关性,气温在不同滞后日与脑卒中的关联呈非线性,不同类型脑卒中与气温的关联强度存在差异。对于脑出血患者而言,低温在当天就表现出危害效应,随后发病风险不断增加,滞后2~3 d时达到最大,可持续至低温发生后的第30天。脑梗塞的发病过程与脑出血存在一定差异,高温和低温均会引起发病风险增大,并且气温效应在当天就能发生,在滞后3~5 d内最强。低温对女性或者19~64岁者的影响更大,而高温对≥65岁者的影响更大;低温对不同类型脑卒中发病均有影响,高温仅对缺血性脑卒中发病有影响。气温对不同年龄、性别人群的脑卒中发病影响存在差异,对不同类型的脑卒中发病影响也有所不同。气温是作为外因通过影响机体功能而致人发病的。
[Abstract]:Through collecting daily stroke incidence data from 2010 to 2013 in Lanzhou City and combining meteorological data of the same time period, the relationship between air temperature and the incidence of stroke was analyzed by using distributed lag nonlinear model. To analyze the influence of different temperature and different lag days on the incidence of stroke. The results showed that the incidence of stroke was closely related to meteorological factors, and the correlation analysis between meteorological factors and stroke case data showed that the daily incidence of stroke in Lanzhou City was correlated with temperature, air pressure and relative humidity. The correlation between temperature and stroke was nonlinear in different lag days, and the correlation intensity between different types of stroke and temperature was different. For patients with intracerebral hemorrhage, hypothermia showed a harmful effect on the same day, and the risk of hypothermia increased continuously, reaching the maximum at 3 days after the onset of hypothermia, which lasted until the 30th day after hypothermia occurred. The pathogenesis of cerebral infarction is different from that of cerebral hemorrhage. Both high temperature and low temperature can increase the risk of cerebral infarction, and the temperature effect can occur on the same day, which is strongest within 3 days. The effect of hypothermia on female or 19- 64 years old was greater than that on hyperthermia over 65 years old, hypothermia on different types of stroke, and hyperthermia on ischemic stroke. Temperature had different effects on stroke in different age and gender groups, and had different effects on different types of stroke. Temperature is an external cause of disease by affecting the body's function.
【作者单位】：兰州大学公共卫生学院;上海市气象与健康重点实验室;成都信息工程大学大气科学学院;
【基金】：上海市气象与健康重点实验室开放基金项目(QXJK201505) 2015年度兰州大学“中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金”项目(lzujbky.2015.264)
【分类号】：R122.26;R743.3

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